7* NCAAF LSU/Ole Miss Free Pick
PLAY ON OLE MISS REBELS +2.5
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Arkansas +7
The Arkansas Razorbacks have lost consecutive one-score games, and I think this is do or die for them Saturday against Texas A&M as a result. They don't want to open 0-2 in SEC play, especially with road games at Ole Miss and at Alabama looming after this.
Arkansas had a misleading 31-38 loss to BYU two weeks ago in which they outgained the Cougars by 143 yards. They held BYU to 281 total yards, yet somehow gave up 38 points. Then last week they put forth one of the most impressive performances of the season, only losing 31-34 at LSU as 18-point underdogs in Baton Rouge.
That effort against LSU shows what the Razorbacks are capable of. Now there's a good chance they get RB Raheim Sanders back from injury after missing the past three games. He rushed for 1,443 yards and 10 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 per carry last season and has been out since scoring two touchdowns in the opener. Star QB KJ Jefferson would welcome back another big playmaker to this offense this week.
Speaking of injuries, Texas A&M could be without QB Conner Weigman, who exited last game against Auburn with an ankle injury and did not return. Backup Max Johnson would be a pretty big downgrade if that's the case. But I like Arkansas' chances of keeping this a one-score game and possibly pulling off the upset either way.
Texas A&M has three home wins against a very soft schedule of New Mexico, UL Monroe and a rebuilding Auburn team to pad their stats thus far. When they stepped up in class in their lone road game, they got blasted 48-33 at Miami. No question the Aggies are improved after going 5-7 last year, which isn't saying much. But Jimbo Fisher is just having a tough time getting his players to live up to the hype of these great recruiting classes.
This has been a very closely-contested series. Each of the last six meetings were decided by 11 points or fewer. Texas A&M has been favored in all six, going just 2-4 ATS. Eleven of the last 13 meetings were decided by 12 points or fewer, including eight by 7 points or less. There's a good chance this one is decided by a single score as well, thus there's value in backing the Razorbacks at +7. Bet Arkansas Saturday.
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Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on Washington -17.5
The Key: The Washington Huskies may very well be the best team in all of college football this season. They clearly aren't afraid to run it up as they beat Boise State 56-19, Tulsa 43-10, Michigan State 41-7 and California 59-32. They have arguably the best offense (49.8 PPG) in the country right alongside the likes of Oregon and USC within the Pac-12. But they have a legit defense that is allowing just 17.0 PPG. Arizona takes a big step up in competition here after facing Northern Arizona, UTEP, Stanford and Mississippi State thus far. In their 21-20 win at Stanford last week as 13-point favorites, they lost star QB Jayden De Laura to a calf injury, and he is questionable to play this week. I don't give the Wildcats much of a chance to hang in this game with or without De Laura, but it would just be an added bonus for us if he does not suit up. Washington has a bye on deck next week so they should be fully focused and avoid a letdown here. Kalen DeBoer is 9-1 ATS off a win by 21 points or more as a head coach. He is one of the more underrated head coaches in the country. Take Washington.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Northwestern +27.5
This looks like a flat spot for the Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State has opened 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS so their spreads are inflated moving forward. They are coming off the 31-0 home win over Iowa on National TV in front of a White Out. Now they have to go on the road for only the second time this season to take on Northwestern. They were very fortunate to cover as 14-point favorites in a 30-13 win at Illinois in their only previous road game. Illinois turned it over four times. Penn State only outgained Illinois by 29 yards. Northwestern has been impressive in its two home games this season. The Wildcats won 38-7 over UTEP as 1-point favorites in Week 2, and pulled off the 37-34 upset win as 11.5-point dogs to Minnesota last week. Northwestern QB Ben Bryant went 33-of-49 passing for 396 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the win. The Cincinnati transfer is the best QB the Wildcats have had in a few years. He can keep them within four touchdowns of the Nittany Lions Saturday. Give me Northwestern.
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #210 Under in Texas A&M Aggies vs Arkansas Razorbacks (12p.m., Saturday, September 30 SECN) This game is once again being played at Jerry World, as Jerry Jones is an alum of the Razorbacks. Texas A&M came to play on defense last week holding Auburn to zero offensive touchdowns in route to a 27-10 victory. Expect them to dictate the style of this game again and look for the Aggies to keep the scoring in the high forties. The Razorbacks have scored 31 points each of the last two weeks and lost both games. This is not the style Sam Pittman wants to play and I look for him to sure up the defense this week. We will play the under and not worry about who will come out on top in this must win game for both sides. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring winners in MLB, WNBA, Ryder Cup Golf, and of course football. We have nailed our top play in college football three straight weeks and now is the time to jump on board with this veteran handicapper with 52 years of experience.
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