Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #376 Ohio Bobcats over Bowling Green Falcons (2p.m., Saturday, October 20 ESPN 3) The Falcons are one of the worst teams in the country and just fired their coach after a 1-6 start (0-6 against FBS teams). They have been a little more competitive of late but playing their third straight road games in their last 4 games will doom them in today in Athens, OH. The Bobcats are 3-3 on the year and on pace to become bowl eligible but must win this game in order to achieve that. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 match-ups between Bowling Green and Ohio. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Falcons are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card. 4-0 run on 10* selections after a B-L-O-W-O-U-T SEC GAME OF THE YEAR last Saturday as underdog LSU destroyed Georgia. Get in on a one week or one month package now!
10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Over 56.6)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 56.5 in Thursday's Sun Belt action between Georgia State and Arkansas State. I just think the number here has been set too low for how bad these two teams are defensively.
Georgia State comes into this game ranked 120th in the country in total defense, giving up 491.5 ypg, and they aren’t good against either the run (244.2 ypg, 124th) or the pass (247.3 ypg, 99th). We have already seen them give up more than the total in a game this season, as they allowed 59 points to Memphis and it could have been a lot worse, as the Tigers had 38 at the half.
While Arkansas State scored just 9 points in their last game against the Mountaineers, Appalachian State has arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. Even with that poor showing, the Red Wolves are still an impressive 36th in the country in total offense (449 ypg). My guess is Arkansas State’s offense will be chomping at the bit to get back on track and I just don’t see the Panthers being able to stop them from scoring on the majority of their possessions.
The key here is that we should also get a decent output here from Georgia State offense. While Arkansas State enters with the 4th ranked pass defense, a big reason for that is they can’t stop the run. The Red Wolves are 125th in the country vs the run, giving up 244.7 ypg. We saw this Panthers offense go off when they were able to expose the run defense of ULM. Georgia State rushed for 308 yards and posted a season-high 46 points. I don’t think they score into the 40s, but all we likely need to eclipse the mark is for them to be around 21-24 points.
The OVER is also a solid 17-7-1 in Arkansas State’s last 25 home games against a team with a losing road record and 13-6 in their last 19 off a double-digit loss at home. It’s also worth noting that the last 10 times the Red Wolves have played at home off a home loss, the average score in these contests was 52.3. I think given how bad Georgia State is defensively, this one will get into the 60s. Give me the OVER 56.5!
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1* Free Sharp Play on Ohio State vs Purdue over 67 -105
1* Free Pick on Stanford/Arizona State OVER 57
You don't typically think of high-scoring games when it comes to Stanford, but the OVER has cashed in each of the Cardinal's last 3 games. A big reason for that is the play of their defense, which has allowed 31 to Oregon, 38 to Notre Dame and 40 to Utah during this over stretch.
It's just not the same caliber of defense that we are use to seeing from Stanford. They come in 74th in the country against the run (164.3 ypg) and 86th against the pass (235.3 ypg). I think Arizona State might surprise people with how well they move the ball here. They have really been efficient offensively at home, averaging 39 ppg and 495 ypg. The overall numbers aren't great, but they have played 4 really strong defensive teams in Michigan St, San Diego St, Washington and Colorado and 3 of those were on the road.
While Stanford's offense struggled early on and still isn't where it would like to be because of their inability to effectively run the football, Bryce Love will be back in action in this one and K.J. Costello has thrown the ball well of late. Costello went 26 of 41 for 381 yards last time out against Utah and we have seen this Sun Devils secondary exposed on a few occasions this season.
OVER is 4-0 in the Cardinal's last 4 off a loss, 4-0 in their last 4 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home. OVER is also 9-2 in Arizona State's last 11 off a bye and 12-3 in their last 15 games played on Thursday. Take the OVER!
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