Free College Football Picks & Against the Spread Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Louisville ML -115

The Louisville Cardinals will be playing with double revenge here.  Jeff Brohm is 29-13 at Louisville, but two of those losses came to the SMU Mustangs over the last two seasons.  After falling 34-27 at home to SMU in 2024, the Cardinals were blown out 38-6 at SMU last year.  It's safe to say they have had this game circled all offseason.

Louisville's only loss by more than 7 points over the last two seasons came 38-6 to SMU last year.  But that loss comes with a big asterisk.  The Cardinals were coming off two losses to Cal and Clemson by a combined 4 points that eliminated them from ACC title contention.  They were flat as a pancake against SMU with nothing to play for.  QB Miller Moss and both stud RB's were out for that game for Louisville, too.

Now the Cardinals are loaded in 2026 and a legit ACC title contender.  Brohm crushed the transfer portal in the offseason bringing in eight transfers who were starters at other programs, giving the Cardinals 14 returning starters overall.  They have arguably the best 1-2 punch at RB in the country in Isaac Brown (884 yards, 7 TD, 8.8 YPC last year) and Keyjuan Brown (704 yards, 6 TD, 7.3 YPC).  They added QB Lincoln Kienholz who was in a battle with Julian Sayin last season for the starting QB job at Ohio State.  They also added Vandy WR transfer Tre Richardson and FSU WR transfer Lewayne McCoy to give Kienholz the weapons he needs to succeed.

Four starters and four of the top nine tacklers are back from a defense that allowed just 21.2 points per game last season.  And defense is where Brohm gets overlooked because he's an offensive guy, but he notoriously has great defenses as his teams have allowed 21.3 points per game or fewer in three of the last four seasons, and the 24.1 points per game in 2024 was the lone exception.  The Cardinals are loaded at LB this season and bring back their best defensive lineman in DE Cleve Lubin (61 tackles, 8.5 sacks last year).

Louisville opened with an impressive 41-38 loss at the buzzer to Ole Miss, which made the college football playoff semifinals last year and brought back a ton of talent from that team.  Keinholz was shaky in the first half of his first start which was understandable.  But he settled in and shined in the 2H, finishing with 307 passing yards and 2 TD along with 69 rushing yards and a score.  His dual-threat ability will give Brohm a ton of versatility with his offense moving forward.  The Cardinals had to play five days later and blasted Villanova 59-13 on September 11th.  They get an extra day to prepare for SMU now and it is a hidden advantage heading into this game.

No question Rhett Lashlee is one of the better coaches in the country with what he has been able to do at SMU.  But he has also benefited from a pretty soft schedule the last two seasons.  I like this SMU offense led by QB Kevin Jennings, but the defense leaves a lot to be desired.  The Mustangs only returned three starters on defense this season and I think will take a step back on that side of the ball.

SMU's 27-24 win at Florida State in the opener isn't that impressive.  FSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country again this season, struggling with New Mexico State at home in the opener.  I fully expect the Seminoles to get blasted by Alabama this week.  SMU came back with a 56-10 win over UC Davis and wasn't tested there either.  

The fact that Louisville has been tested against a team of Ole Miss' caliber will pay dividends late in this game.  I believe the Cardinals are the better team this season, and with home-field advantage this game shouldn't be lined below -3.  Bet Louisville on the money line Saturday.

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Saturday's CFB Free Pick

PLAY ON: Miss State +4

1* Free Pick on Wake Forest +21

This number is built on box scores against Florida A&M and Stanford, not on what Miami looks like against a real ACC opponent on the road.

Miami has been dominant, no argument there.

They outscored their first two opponents 122-13, winning 45-6 at Stanford and 77-7 over Florida A&M.

That's the strongest case against this pick, and it's a real one.

But Stanford and Florida A&M tell you almost nothing about laying 21 in a conference opener.

Blowout margins against that level of competition get overvalued by the market every September.

That's exactly how you end up with a road favorite priced at three touchdowns.

Meanwhile Miami's secondary is a mess.

The Hurricanes are expected to be without cornerbacks Xavier Lucas, OJ Frederique Jr., and Ja'Boree Antoine.

Three corners out against a Wake Forest offense that has put up 38 points in both of its wins this season, 38-16 over Akron and 38-36 in double overtime at Purdue.

Wake Forest doesn't need to win this game.

They need to score enough to keep it inside 21, and a gutted cornerback room is the clearest path to that.

SP+ projects Wake Forest 62nd overall with the defense at 47th.

Those are projection numbers this early, but a top-50 projected defense at home in a conference opener is not a 21-point underdog profile.

The Purdue game showed the defense can leak points.

It also showed this team fights for 60 minutes plus.

Covering a number this big is about not folding, and Wake Forest hasn't folded yet.

I like Wake Forest

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Texas State -2.5

The Key: Texas State is 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS this year with a couple misleading losses.  They lost 59-7 at Texas but were only outgained by 167 yards.  They lost 31-26 at home to UTSA despite outgaining the Roadrunners by 83 yards.  North Texas is 1-1 SU but 2-0 ATS this season losing by 36 to Indiana as 40.5-point dogs and crushing UNLV 44-6 as 3-point dogs.  That blowout win over UNLV has the Mean Green getting too much respect.  UNLV was in a terrible spot coming off a win at Hawaii, having to travel back home and then back out to Texas.  The Rebels didn't show up at all.  Keep in mind North Texas is replacing all 22 starters this season and was expected to be one of the worst teams in the nation.  Texas State had 11 starters back and was supposed to be one of the better Group of 6 teams.  Texas State outgained UTSA by 83 yards despite playing without its top two receivers in Sample and Sparks.  There's a good chance Sample returns this week and Sparks possibly could too.  That would give the offense a huge boost.  But I like the Bobcats either way here.  I expect an inspired effort after their 0-2 start against a tough schedule.  Take Texas State.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Alabama -19

The Alabama Crimson Tide enter Year 3 of the Kalen DeBoer era.  He has the players in place now to fit his system, and the Crimson Tide are off and running.  Alabama crushed East Carolina 48-10 as 28.5-point home favorites in the opener before also throttling Kentucky 45-17 as 9.5-point favorites on the road to open SEC play.  There will be no letdown here as Alabama wants revenge from a shocking loss to Florida State last season.  But this is a very bad Florida State team.  The Seminoles only beat New Mexico State 34-17 as 31.5-point home favorites in their opener.  They only outgained the Aggies by 100 yards.  Their 27-24 home loss to SMU last week was probably the most misleading final of the season to this point.  SMU had 585 yards and 8.7 per play on offense but committed four turnovers.  FSU managed just 324 yards and 4.8 per play, getting outgained by 261 yards and 3.9 per play.  There are already rumors that Mike Norvell will be fired after this game.  Give me Alabama.

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Our selection is on the Miami Florida Hurricanes to defeat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons on Friday at 7:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Miami Florida has become a fan favorite team in College Football this season. Malachi Toney is a big part of the reason.

With his big performance in week 1, Toney didn't have to do anything in the 77-7 week 2 win.

The Hurricanes are as explosive of an offensive team as anyone and this is a great opening ACC matchup for them.

Wake Forest has allowed 52 points over it's first two games -- 36 last week against Purdue.

The Demon Deacons are 0-8 straight up over their L8 games against Miami since 1944.

We're on Miami.

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