Doc's Sports
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #184 Arizona State Sun Devils over Wyoming Cowboys (10:30p.m., Saturday, August 31 FS1) Year two of the Kenny Dillingham era should go much smoother and this is a game the Sun Devils need to win to keep the fan base interested. The Cowboys had a coaching change of their own and must replace a bunch of talent on offense including their quarterback. They had three close wins last season, and I do not see them being as fortunate in 2024. Lay the points with the home team and expect the Sun Devils to come out with a double-digit victory. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring football, MLB, WNBA, and horse racing. Sign-up now and let 53 years of handicapping experience work for you.
Jack Jones
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Wyoming +7
The Wyoming Cowboys have been the model of consistency with seven winning seasons in the last eight years with the lone exception being the Covid-shortened 2020 season (2-4). Craig Bohl did a tremendous job here and retires off his best season yet, a 9-4 campaign in 2023.
While the loss of Bohl cannot be overstated, he positioned the Cowboys to be successful moving forward while carrying on his winning tradition. The new head coach is Jay Sawvel, who was promoted after serving as the defensive coordinator since 2019. The offensive coordinator will be Jay Johnson from Michigan State. The new defensive coordinator is Aaron Bohl, who was the LB coach the last four years under his dad.
Sawvel welcomes 13 starters back this season including a loaded defense that returns six of their top seven tacklers. The standouts are LB Shae Suianunoa (93 tackles '23) and FS Wyett Ekeler (77 tackles, 2 INT '23). This is a defense that gave up just 22.3 points per game last season and is loaded again.
QB Andrew Peasley has moved on to the NFL, but I really like the potential of the 6-foot-5, 245 LB Evan Svoboda. He led the final two drives of their bowl win and also kept them competitive against Texas last year in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter. He is drawing comparisons to former Wyoming QB, Josh Allen. Four starters return along the offensive line which will be huge in Svoboda's success this year. Star RB Harrison Waylee will miss this game, but UNC transfer DJ Jones along with Sam Scott can fill his shoes until he returns.
This play is as much of a fade of Arizona State as anything. The Sun Devils move to the Big 12 this season and could be the worst team in the league. They went just 3-9 in Kenny Dillingham's first season on the job last year, where the 32-year-old was the youngest head coach in the Power 5. They scored just 17.8 points per game and allowed 31.8 points per game last season as they were rarely competitive. They lost 29-0 at home to another MWC opponent in Fresno State last year.
This is a big rebuilding job for Dillingham and it won't go much better in Year 2. He has just 10 returning starters and hit the transfer portal hard. The new QB will be Michigan State transfer Sem Leavitt. He will have his hands full with four new starters along the offensive line and three new pass catchers with the losses of their top two receivers. Projected starting RG Sean Na'a is out with a leg injury as well.
The Sun Devils only return four starters on defense and will be without 10 of their top 13 tacklers from a year ago with DE Prince Dorbah (30 tackles, 6 sacks '23) out with a leg injury for this one. No question Dillingham brought in some talent here via the transfer portal to fill some of these voids, but I don't expect them to be clicking in Week 1. This line should be much closer to PK. Bet Wyoming Saturday.
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Dave Price
Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on UNLV +3
The Key: Barry Odom led UNLV to their first bowl games since 2013 and their first 9-win season since 1984 in his first season on the job last year. Odom is finally getting the players that UNLV should be able to acquire and he is getting the most out of them. They have 11 starters back including WR Ricky White, who had 88 receptions for 1,483 yards and 8 TD last year. Five of the top seven tackles are back on defense. They added Holy Cross transfer Matthew Sluka, who was one of the most sought-after QB's at the FCS level. While the Rebels are on the rise, the Houston Cougars are rebuilding. Willie Fritz is one of the better head coaches in the country, but he has his work cut out for him in Year 1. Fritz only has 10 starters and 18 lettermen returning from last year. He did great things at Tulane, but keep in mind he had 2 losing seasons to start his tenure there. Houston went 4-8 last year with 3 of the 4 wins coming by 3 points or less, so they were close to being 1-11. Take UNLV.
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John Martin
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Fresno State +21
The Michigan Wolverines are coming off a perfect 15-0 season and their first National Title since their split title in 1997. There was already going to be a championship hangover. That's made even worse by the fact that they lost their leader in Jim Harbaugh to the NFL as he bolted to avoid punishment. Michigan loses 14 starters from that team to boot and half of them are in the NFL. Only two starters return on offense as they break in an entirely new offensive line, and their QB situation is one of the worst in the Big Ten with dual-threat Alex Orji being a much bigger threat with his legs than with his arm. Michigan has Texas on deck next week and won't want to show too much in the opener, and could easily be looking ahead to that game. Fresno State went 9-4 last season including road wins over Purdue and Arizona State in non-conference play. The Bulldogs have 13 starters back including QB Mikey Keene, who threw for nearly 3,000 yards and 24 touchdowns with 67.1% completions last year. The Bulldogs still have the motto of 'anyone, anywhere, anytime' and they won't be intimidated by Michigan. Give me Fresno State.
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Matt Fargo
This is a play on the COLORADO ST. RAMS for our Saturday Free Play. This line opened Texas -35 to -36 and was bet down to -32 in some places over a week ago but as expected, the public money is coming back in on the Longhorns and the number is rising again. They come into the season with National Championship aspirations and with the comes inflated number especially early on in the season against teams it should push around. This is not a layup though as Texas should not have any worries about losing but what they show is the big story. The Longhorns have a game against Michigan on deck and it is very unlikely they open up the entire playbook here. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses top five receivers. The Longhorns also lost leading rusher Jonathan Brooks and his replacement, CJ Baxter, was lost for the season with a torn ACL and PCL. The defense will be stout once again but the Longhorns do have a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. Colorado St. put together five straight winning seasons from 2013-2017 but now they have a string of six straight losing campaigns culminating with its 5-7 record last year. The Rams had a chance to make it to a bowl game but lost its season finale as a favorite at Hawaii. Four of the seven losses were by one possession so there was progress last season following back-to-back 3-9 campaigns and they are looking for the breakthrough. Head coach Jay Norvell has this team going in the right direction entering his third season after proven success at Nevada where he got out at the right time. The offense nearly doubled its output, going from 13.2 ppg in 2022 to 26.1 ppg in 2023 thanks to the top passing game in the MWC that finished No. 9 in the country led by all MWC quarterback Braydon Fowler-Nicolosi. His top target Tory Horton returns and while they lose their leading rusher, there was not much there anyway. The offensive line returns four of five starters. The defense regressed from 2022 but the Rams are athletic and will show improvement. Three of their top four tacklers that combined for 296 tackles are back and the secondary is loaded. Play (187) Colorado St. Rams
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Stephen Nover
Whether it's injuries, bad defense or offensive inefficiency, I don't trust South Carolina especially in a big favorite's role. The Gamecocks are likely to start slow with a new quarterback and an offensive line with much to prove following a 5-7 record last season.
Yes, there's a class difference with South Carolina being an SEC team and Old Dominion coming from the Sun Belt Conference. Old Dominion, though, is well-coached behind Rickey Rahne, has been to a bowl game in two of the last three years, has a decent QB in dual-threat Grant Wilson and one of the top middle linebackers in the country, Jason Henderson.
The Monarchs know how to keep games close, too, as 11 of their final 12 games were one-scoring contests. Six of the games were decided on the final play. Old Dominion isn't fancy. What the Monarchs are is a solid, competitive team.
South Carolina ranked 128th rushing and were 90th in total defense last year. The Gamecocks are hoping LaNorris Sellers can replace Spencer Rattler, who was one of the most talented passers in college football last year and is now the New Orleans Saints' backup quarterback. Sellers is athletic, but it remains to be seen how accurate of a passer he is.
Brandon Lee
Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick
PLAY ON: Kentucky -28
I will lay the 28 points at home with Kentucky against Southern Miss on Saturday. I just think this Wildcats' team is not getting near enough respect coming into this season. The Wildcats have 18 of 22 starts on offense/defense back from a 7 win team in 2023.
The two big losses were on offense, with the departures of starting quarterback Devin Leary and star running back Ray Davis. I don't think there will be any drop off at all from Leary with junior transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff, who comes over from Georgia (Top 5 rated QB out of high school). As for replacing Davis, that won't be so easy, but Kentucky does look to have maybe it's best offensive line of the Stoops era (this is year 13 with Kentucky).
As for the defense, the Wildcats have 10 of 11 starters back. This should be one of the better defenses of the Stoops era as well.
I just don't see how Southern Miss keeps this close. The Golden Eagles have just 10 starters returning from last season (4 offense, 6 defense). They too have to replace a stud back in Frank Gore, who had 1,100 yards and 10 scores. They also lose their top 2 pass catchers, starting QB and have just 64 career starts returning on the o-line. The defense for Southern Miss gave up 35.8 ppg and 421 ypg (5.1 yards/carry) last year.
Lastly, Kentucky is expected to play much faster than they have in recent years, which I think should lead to even more scoring opportunities in this one. I think we get something like a 42-7 type of final here. Give me Kentucky -28!
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