FREE PICK - Ole Miss Rebels -14
This is one line that didn't make a lot of sense to me. I think Ole Miss at a minimum should be a 17.5-point favorite in this game. Success has followed Lane Kiffin ever since his 3-year stint with the Crimson Tide. He instantly turned FAU into a power in C-USA (were coming off 3 straight 3-win seasons and won 11 games in his first year on the job).
He took over Ole Miss last year in the midst of a pandemic and went 5-5 with a 9-game SEC schedule and a matchup with Indiana in a bowl (won 26-20). Their 4-5 record in conference play was the best in 5 years.
They got just about everyone back (16 returning starters), including star quarterback Matt Corral. The offense wasn't the problem last year. They averaged 39.2 ppg and scored 48 against Alabama. It was the defense that held them back.
They really thought they would be better on that side of the ball in 2021. So far, it looks to be the case. That defense played extremely well in their 43-24 win against Louisville. They really dominated until they took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half (Rebels led 29-3 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter). I don't think there's any doubt its improved.
Not only do I think people are sleeping on just how good this Ole Miss team is, but I think people see that Tulane only lost 35-40 at Oklahoma and just assume they will be able to keep it within 2 TD's. What they don't look at is how that game played out. The Sooners led 37-14 at the half and went on to score just 3-points in the 2nd half. Ole Miss is scoring at will against this defense.
I'm also not so sure that the Rebels aren't better than Oklahoma. I definitely don't think there's as big a gap between them as this line indicates. The Sooners were a 31-point home favorite, which is basically saying Ole Miss would be around a 17-point dog on a neutral site to Oklahoma.
I think the only way the Rebels don't win by 20 is if they don't show up to play. With a bye week on deck, there's no reason for them to not be 100% focused on getting this win. Keep in mind the fact that Tulane rallied to make it close vs Oklahoma will help keep Ole Miss from overlooking them. Give me the Rebels -14!
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #162 Memphis Tigers over Mississippi State Bulldogs (4p.m., Saturday, September 18 ESPN2) This line is an overaction to the Bulldogs win last week against NC State. The Wolfpack did not show up for that game, especially on offense and were shell-shocked for the entire 60 minutes after the Bulldogs ran back the opening kick for a touchdown. Their offense struggled to move the football and will be a much different setting today at the Liberty Bowl with no cow bells. Memphis can score points and I am not sure if the Bulldogs can keep pace with them. Mississippi State is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Memphis is 17-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 home games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card featuring top plays on Saturday and Sunday. Sign-up now and let 50 years of handicapping experience work for you.
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