Free College Football Picks & Against the Spread Predictions

Miami of Ohio is a good Mid-American Conference team - as long as it's not being asked to step up in class. Unfortunately for the RedHawks that is the case here on the road against Pittsburgh, a team with aspirations of winning the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The RedHawks are 2-9 ATS the last 11 times as an underdog, including failing to cover the past six times when getting points. They also are 1-9 in their last 10 season openers.

Pittsburgh had a top 10 run defense last season and returns Mason Heintschel, who emerged as one of the best freshman quarterbacks in the country last year. The Panthers went 6-3 after Heintschel replaced an ineffective Eli Holstein.

The Panthers have a huge QB edge here as the RedHawks will be starting transfer quarterback David McComb. Miami of Ohio lost starting quarterback Thomas Gotkowski after he suffered a season-ending, non-contact injury. So McComb will be making his first college start on the road against a strong ACC defense. Not exactly a formula for success. 

1* Free Pick on Toledo/Michigan State: over 46½

This number is built on the classic Big Ten versus MAC grinder script.

I don't think that's the game we get Friday night.

Start with Michigan State's defense.

Last season the Spartans gave up 38 at home to UCLA and 45 at USC.

They allowed over 28 points a game across the 2025 results I tracked.

The SP+ projection has them 61st in defense at 25.1, and that projection leans on last year's tape.

The Spartan offense is the better unit in this matchup.

Michigan State projects 58th in SP+ offense (27.7) against a Toledo defense slotted 75th (26.6).

That's a path to the upper 20s or low 30s on their own.

The under case is real and it starts with Toledo's offense, projected 114th in SP+ at 17.9.

The Rockets also played some ugly ones last year, losing 14-13 at Western Michigan.

Two answers.

First, those ratings are preseason projections, not results, and neither team has played a snap in 2026.

Second, Toledo already showed it can score on a power-conference defense: 22 points against Louisville in last December's bowl game.

Against a softer Michigan State unit, 17 to 20 points is a fair ask.

The books are anchored to games like Michigan State's 23-6 win over Western Michigan last August.

That was a different Spartan roster in a different spot.

We need roughly 47.

Michigan State to 30 and Toledo to 17 gets it done, and both numbers line up with how these units actually profile.

I like the Over

1* FREE INFO PLAY UTEP vs Oklahoma over 51 -110

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #164 Under in Marshall Thundering Herd @ Penn State Nittany Lions (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 5 FS1) The Matt Campbell era gets underway at Penn State on Saturday. Penn State should still have a strong defense and Coach Campbell is a run the ball and play strong defense type of coach. I don’t think he will want to throw the football up and down the field and focus on field position and ball control. Marshall usually a bowl caliber team and not a mid-major pushover like some teams. They have to run clock to have any chance to keep this game under twenty points and that should set up a strong play for the under. Marshall closed out the season going under the posted total in 3 straight games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays in football, baseball, and soccer. 3 straight winning weeks to open up the football season and you can receive all football plays for half off with a one week football package.

1* Free Play on San Jose State +3 -110

Saturday's Free CFB Pick

PLAY ON: Clemson +10