Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Nevada -14
The Key: I was on Nevada last week in their upset win over Wyoming. And I’m on them again this week for many of the same reasons. This Nevada team is good enough to win the Mountain West or at least challenge Boise State for the title. They returned 17 starters this year under Jay Norvell, have a dominant offense with 10 starters back and have a huge defensive line that can stop the run. They racked up 496 total yards on a good Wyoming defense and held the Cowboys to 361 yards, including just 128 rushing on 35 carries. Now they want to avenge their upset loss to rival UNLV last year. This is a horrible UNLV team in transition under first-year head coach Marcus Arroyo. They lost 6-34 to San Diego State last week while getting outgained 186 to 424 yards. Nevada is better than San Diego State this season, if not on par with them at the very least. The Wolf Pack are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Take Nevada.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Michigan State +24.5
This line is an overreaction from last week’s results. Michigan State lost outright as a double-digit favorite to Rutgers. But the Spartans turned the ball over seven times in that game and Rutgers scored 38 points despite managing just 276 total yards against what is still a very solid Sparty defense. Michigan won 49-24 at Minnesota last week as just a 2.5-point favorite. So instead of this line being closer to 14 where it would have been this offseason this line has been jacked up to 24.5 points in a huge rivalry game. You know the Spartans are going to show up for Michigan, and they should be able to stay within this massive spread. Michigan was a 24.5-point favorite a few years back and only won 32-23 over Michigan State. The Spartans are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Ann Arbor. Give me Michigan State.
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So Coastal Carolina is all fat and happy right now being a perfect 5-0 and also being ranked. They are also 4-1 ATS which will draw a ton of public attention here laying just a little more than a FG. Coastal Carolina QB McCall is downgraded to doubtful and that's a huge loss for them as he has been lighting it up to say the least.
Georgia St has this game circled you can count on that. I see Georgia St really controlling this game on the ground and being a live dog here. This is simply too many points for a team riding high missing their stud QB. Georgia St wins this one outright.
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PICK - Penn State Nittany Lions +12.5
Give me double-digits with Penn State at home against the Buckeyes. I think we are getting big value here from last week's results.
The Nittany Lions lost 35-36 at Indiana as a 7-point favorite. That's a much better Indiana team than I think most people realize. Not taking anything away from them, but they had a lot of breaks go their way. Penn State outgained the Hoosiers 488 to 211. It's hard to lose a game with that big of an edge in yards, especially when you hold the opposing under 220.
Ohio State won and covered in a 52-17 win at home against Nebraska as a 28-point favorite. The numbers were solid for the Buckeyes. They outgained the Cornhuskers 491-370, but that was a very close game early. It was tied 14-14 late in the 1st half before Ohio State took control.
Some very concerning things from that game. Nebraska had 210 rushing yards on 36 attempts, which comes out to 5.8 yards/carry. That's a far cry from the defense they had last year, which finished up allowing just 104 ypg and 3.0 yards/carry.
I just don't see that elite defensive linemen that this defense has had for years now. You have to go back to 2012 to find the last Ohio State team that didn't have either Joey Bosa, Nick Bosa or Chase Young on the defensive side.
I know Fields was great against Nebraska. He only had one incomplete pass, going 20 of 21 for 276 yards and 2 scores. He also led the team with 15 carries and 54 yards rushing.
I just wonder how much of that was playing a bad Nebraska defense.
Penn State held a good Indiana run game to just 41 yards on 26 attempts (1.6 yards/carry). Indiana running back Stevie Scott was a guy a lot of people had pegged as a 1st-Team All-Big Ten RB (2nd-Team last year).
I think if they can slow down the run game, they can make it hard on this offense. Last year Penn State held Ohio State to just 3.8 yards/carry. Fields was 16 of 22, but only had 188 yards. Buckeyes only scored 28.
I not only think the Nittany Lions keep this close. I think they can win outright. In the last 4 meetings, Penn State is just 1-3 SU, but two of those losses were by a mere 1-point and the other was by only 11. Give me the Nittany Lions +12.5!
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #112 Syracuse Orange +11 over Wake Forest Demon Deacons (12p.m., Saturday, October 31 ACCN) Just do not believe Wake Forest should be favored by this many points by anyone in the conference, especially on the road. Wake Forest has won three straight games, the last two as an underdog but I still am not sold on their defense and feel Syracuse will be able to move the football and score some points in this game. Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 road games. Syracuse is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against Wake Forest. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card highlighted by a top play winner on Saturday and Sunday. Sign-up now and let 49 years of handicapping experience work for you.
Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Texas A&M -12
The Texas A&M Aggies are the second-best team in the SEC in my opinion behind Alabama. They have opened 3-1 this season with their only loss coming to Alabama. They were only outgained by 94 yards by the Crimson Tide as it was a much closer game than the final score would suggest. They also beat Florida at home this season.
It’s a great time to ’sell high’ on the Arkansas Razorbacks now. The Razorbacks are 2-2 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as they have greatly exceeded expectations. But it’s worth noting the Razorbacks have been very fortunate as they have been outgained in all four of their games thus far. Texas A&M has outgained every opponent outside Alabama by 108 yards or more.
I think the Razorbacks get a dose of reality here as they take a big step up in class against the Aggies. This will be similar to their 10-37 home loss to Georgia to open the season. I think Georgia and Texas A&M are neck-and-neck for the second-best team in the conference and I’d give a slight edge to the Aggies. So they should be able to cover this 12-point spread coming off their bye week.
The Aggies are 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games as favorites. The Razorbacks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Aggies should have no problem winning this game by two touchdowns or more. Bet Texas A&M Saturday.
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1* Free Pick on Nevada -10 -112
All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.
1* FREE INFO PLAY on Hawaii vs Wyoming over 59½ -109
After a pair of losses, UCF came back with a win over Tulane but has a stiff test this weekend. The Knights are trying to distance themselves from their early-season stumbles, issues unfamiliar for a program that had grown accustomed to success. The offense has been unreal but the defense has been letting them down as they are ranked No. 88 in total defense. The Knights have failed to cover their last four games yet they come in as road favorites here. Houston is coming off a win over Navy to move to 2-1 on the season with the lone loss coming against 6-0 BYU. Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen said that he hopes to have running back Mulbah Car back after missing the last two games with an ankle injury and that would be a big boost against a UCF rushing defense that is allowing 195.6 ypg. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a home win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 80-40 ATS (66.7 percent) since 1992. Play (178) Houston Cougars
Another full Saturday College Football schedule is here, and Matt is ready to take advantage of some great matchups. He has FIVE Winners this Saturday so do not miss any of the action by getting a weekly or monthly package to keep the winners rolling in.
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