Jack Jones’ Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

Jack's Free Pick Monday: Phillies/Braves UNDER 8.5

The Atlanta Braves are averaging just 3.4 runs per game in their last seven games.  The Philadelphia Phillies have been held to 4 or fewer runs in seven consecutive games and are averaging just 2.3 runs per game during this stretch.  I like the UNDER 8.5 tonight in Game 1 of this series.

Zack Wheeler is one of the best starters in baseball.  He has posted a 3.49 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in seven starts this season with 41 K's and only 2 homers allowed in 38 2/3 innings.  Wheeler is 2-2 with a 1.75 ERA in his last seven starts against the Braves, allowing just 9 earned runs in 46 1/3 innings.

Tucker Davison made his first start of the season on May 17th and pitched 5 shutout innings in a 3-0 victory over the Brewers.  Davison shut out the Phillies in 6 innings of a 2-1 defeat in his lone career start against them last season.

The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Phillies last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 32-15-4 in Braves last 51 games as underdogs.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

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20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -112

The St. Louis Cardinals are raking right now.  They have scored 4 runs or more in six straight and eight of their last nine games overall.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate tonight, while the struggling Blue Jays stay cold.  Toronto has scored 3 runs or fewer in five straight games.

The Cardinals have a big advantage on the mound with Miles Mikolas, who is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  Mikolas is 3-2 with a 1.68 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in eight starts this season.

He'll be opposed by Jose Berrios, who is 3-2 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Berrios has been at his worst on the road, going 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in four road starts this season.

The Cardinals are 25-9 in their last 34 games after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game.  They are coming off an 18-run outburst on Sunday.  Take the Cardinals Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado Rockies +125

Wrong team favored here.  The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost five of their last six games coming in while scoring 4 runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games.  The Rockies have the better starter and the better lineup in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Chad Kuhl is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Rockies as he has been their best starter.  He will face his former team here in Pittsburgh for the first time and will be highly motivated to shut them down.

J.T. Brubaker is 0-4 with a 5.50 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in three home starts.  There's no way he should be a -135 favorite over Kuhl and the Rockies tonight.

Pittsburgh allowed 18 runs to St. Louis yesterday and is 6-25 in its last 31 games after allowing 15 runs or more.  Kuhl is 9-4 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in night starts over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 4-18 (-14.6 Units) in Brubaker's last 22 starts vs. teams that average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game.  Roll with the Rockies Monday.

20* Heat/Celtics ABC No-Brainer on Boston -6.5

I'm 3-0 in this series.  I cashed in the Heat in Game 1, the Celtics in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3.  I'm back on the Celtics in Game 4 and riding the Zig Zag Theory in this series because it's so evenly matched that it works.  The Zig Zag Theory in the NBA playoffs hasn't really worked for years.  However, it has been pretty good in the Conference Finals in recent years going 15-7 SU & 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 instances.

The Celtics gave away Game 3 by committing 21 turnovers and the Heat capitalized, outscoring Boston 33-9 in points off turnovers.  Miami got off to such a strong start that they were able to hold on to a 26-point lead even though it was eventually cut to 1 late in the 4th.  Boston fell short, but they will respond in a big way like they have all season following a defeat.

The Heat won despite Jimmy Butler sitting out the entire 2nd half with knee inflammation.  I can't possibly imagine he's anywhere near 100% two days later after sitting out the most important 24 minutes of the season thus far.  He may play, but he won't be himself.  The Celtics could get back Robert Williams and are otherwise fully healthy for Game 4 tonight.

Boston is 11-1 SU & 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a loss.  Bet the Celtics in Game 4 Monday.