Jack Jones’ Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: New York Mets -1.5 (-130)

Justin Verlander is a machine.  He's back healthy now and pitching well going 2-2 with a 3.60 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in four starts this season.  He held the Guardians to one run and three base runners in 8 innings in his last start.

I trust what he's done much more than Chase Anderson, who has been solid in two starts this season for the Rockies.  But Anderson posted a 6.38 ERA in 2022, a 6.75 ERA in 2021 and a 7.22 ERA in 2020.  His decent start to 2023 is more of an aberration than anything, and he's likely to get rocked by the Mets today.

Verlander is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.894 WHIP in five career starts against Colorado.  He'll be supported by a Mets lineup that is heating up at the plate scoring 15 runs in their last two games.  The total for this game is 11, so there are expected to be a lot of runs, which gives the Mets an even better chance of winning by multiple runs.

The Mets are 8-0 in their last eight games with a total of 11 or higher.  New York is 7-2 in its last nine games overall.  The Mets are 10-4 in the last 15 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in Colorado.  Bet the Mets on the Run Line Saturday.

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20* Celtics/Heat Game 6 No-Brainer on UNDER 210.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The longer a series goes, the more teams become familiar with one another and points get harder to come by.  Teams tend to play slower as well with fewer fast break opportunities.

Game 5 was the lowest scoring game of the series with 207 combined points despite both teams shooting very well from the floor.  The Celtics shot 50.6% while the Heat shot 51.3%.  Both teams aren't likely to shoot that well again, and this game is likely to stay UNDER 210.5 combined points as a result.

Boston is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight games when facing elimination in a playoff series.   Miami is 14-6 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less this season.  The UNDER is 15-4 in Celtics last 19 road games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Saturday.

15* Red Sox/Diamondbacks Interleague ANNIHILATOR on OVER 9.5

The Boston Red Sox are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 32-18-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 4th in scoring at 5.4 runs per game and 26th in allowing 5.16 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks are similar as they rank 6th in scoring at 5.15 runs per game and 23rd in allowing 4.95 runs per game.

There's not much to like about either of these starting pitchers tonight.  Garrett Whitlock is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 11 earned runs and 4 homers in 16 innings.  Zach Davies is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.608 WHIP in two starts this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 39-18-2 in Diamondbacks last 59 interleague games.  The OVER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.  Boston is 8-1 OVER after losing three of its last four games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Interleague TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cardinals/Guardians UNDER 8.5

There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from right-center at pitcher-friendly Progressive Field in Cleveland tonight.  That will help us cash this UNDER 8.5 ticket between the Cardinals and Guardians in this one.

Tanner Bibee is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in five starts this season for the Guardians.  He'll be opposed by Jack Flaherty, who has pitched very well of late with a 3.24 ERA in his last three starts and only 6 earned runs and one homer allowed in 16 2/3 innings.

The Guardians have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 21 of their last 23 games overall.  They are hitting .218 and scoring 2.8 runs per game at home this season.  The UNDER is 25-7-2 in Guardians last 34 games overall. The UNDER is 12-1 in Guardians last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Dodgers/Rays Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

This is a very low total for a game involving two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Rays rank 2nd in the league in scoring at 6.10 runs per game, while the Dodgers rank 3rd in scoring at 5.53 runs per game.  These teams should easily combine to top this 7.5-run total today.

Clayton Kershaw is getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  He is 3-3 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.380 WHIP in six road starts this season allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 33 1/3 innings.  Tyler Glasnow will be making his first start of the season back from injury for the Rays and will be on a pitch count.

When Glasnow exits early, the Rays will turn to their bullpen which has a 4.49 ERA on the season and is dealing with a ton of injuries.  When Kershaw exits, the Dodgers have a 4.59 ERA as a bullpen on the season and a 5.85 ERA on the road.

Tampa Bay is 10-1 OVER after a game where its bullpen threw 6 or more innings this season.  The OVER is 16-5 in Dodgers last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 7-0 in Rays last seven home games.  The OVER is 8-0 in Rays last eight games following a win.  The OVER is 13-3 in Rays last 16 games overall.  The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings.  The OVER is 8-1 in the last nine meetings in Tampa Bay.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Braves OVER 8.5

Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to right in Atlanta tonight which will help aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket.  The Braves are elite offensively ranking 5th at 5.23 runs per game.  The Phillies have a ton of talent and are heating up at the plate scoring at least 5 runs in three consecutive games.

Zack Wheeler has been at his worst on the road for the Phillies, going 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.406 WHIP in four starts away from home this season.  Charlie Morton has been at his worst at home for the Braves with a 4.30 ERA in four home starts, allowing 5 homers in 23 innings.  Morton just allowed 6 runs in 5 innings in his last start coming in.  Morton is 5-7 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in 18 career starts against the Phillies.

Once these two exit the bullpens are likely to get rocked.  The Braves have a 4.99 ERA at home while the Phillies have a 5.83 ERA on the road.  The OVER is 29-11 in Morton's last 40 starts.  The OVER is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.  The OVER is 13-3 in Braves last 16 home games with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.