Jack Jones’ Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Illinois -7

The Illinois Fighting Illini are one of the best teams in the country at their best.  We've seen that on display with a 25-point road win at Indiana and a 32-point road win at Oregon recently.

I think we get their best tonight after losing two of their last three games coming in, including a tough 2-point loss at Michigan State over the weekend.  The Fighting Illini are focused, fresh and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 9 days.

The Maryland Terrapins are coming off a 69-66 home win as 9.5-point favorites against a struggling Nebraska team.  They will be playing their 5th game in 14 days.  The Terrapins have been at their worst on the highway, going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games with losses at Northwestern, Oregon, Washington and Purdue.  Bet Illinois Thursday.

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15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco +10.5

This is a great time to 'sell high' on St. Mary's.  The Gaels are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, but they couldn't have possibly played an easier schedule getting to face Pepperdine (twice), San Diego, Loyola-Marymount, Portland and Pacific.

The last time they had to face a real opponent they lost outright to Utah State as 5.5-point home favorites.  That was the end of a stretch that saw them go 1-6 ATS in their previous season games.  They only beat UTSA by 8 at home, Merrimack by 5 at home, and lost outright to ASU, Boise State and Utah State.

San Francisco is 16-5 this season with wins over Boise State, Saint Louis, Santa Clara and Oregon State.  Three of their five losses came by single-digits.  The Dons have a knack for playing the Gaels tough, especially on the road.

Indeed, the Dons haven't lost any of their last five trips to St. Mary's by more than 10 points.  That makes for a 5-0 system backing the Dons pertaining to this 10.5-point spread.  They have lost 10 straight in the series and desperately want to end this streak tonight.  Bet San Francisco Thursday.

20* WAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Utah +11.5

Grand Canyon is one of the most overrated teams in the country. The Antelopes are just 5-12 ATS in all games this season.  That's even after consecutive blowout wins and covers at home against Tarleton State and Abilene Christian.

I think those two blowout wins have the Antelopes overvalued again tonight as 11.5-point road favorites over Southern Utah.  They only beat Southern Utah 82-71 as 16-point home favorites in their first meeting this season on January 4th three weeks ago.

Now the Thunderbirds will be out for revenge in the rematch, and they are catching 11.5 points at home to boot.  They will be happy to be at home after having to play five of their last eight games on the road and all against quality teams.  The Thunderbirds are 7-2 SU at home this season with both losses coming by 8 points or fewer.  Bet Southern Utah Thursday.

20* Summit League TOTAL OF THE WEEK on St. Thomas/Nebraska-Omaha OVER 153.5

The Summit League is loaded with offense and St. Thomas is the class of it.  The Tommies are scoring 85.9 points per game and shooting 49.9% as a team. The Tommies rank 56th in adjusted offense, 4th in effective FG percentage and 6th in 3-point percentage.

Omaha has been no slouch on offense ranking 183rd in adjusted offense, 165th in effective FG percentage and 76th in 3-point percentage.  But both teams have been poor on defense.  Omaha ranks 272nd in adjusted defense while St. Thomas ranks 244th.

The OVER is 12-3 in St. Thomas' last 15 games overall.  The Tommies and their opponents have combined for at least 160 points in nine of their last 12 games.  The OVER is 4-2 in Omaha's last six games overall.  They have gone for 167 or more combined points in four of those six games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on South Dakota/North Dakota OVER 176

I've been riding these Summit League OVERS especially with South Dakota, my favorite OVER team in the league.  The OVER is 15-1 in all South Dakota games this season and most are sailing over the total.

South Dakota ranks 3rd in adjusted tempo, 104th in adjusted offense and 358th in adjusted defense.  So they play super fast and play no defense, which is what you want in an OVER team.

Now they match up with a North Dakota team that plays a similar style.  The Fighting Hawks rank 115th in adjusted tempo, 156th in adjusted offense and 351st in adjusted defense.  So these are two of the 15 worst defensive teams in the entire country and both like to play fast.

North Dakota is 9-0 OVER in its last nine games overall with 180 or more combined points four times.  South Dakota and its opponents have combined for at least 174 points in nine of its last 12 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago Bulls +1.5

This is a terrible spot for the Golden State Warriors tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 123-117 loss in Sacramento last night.  They couldn't have shot it any better hitting 22-of-48 (46%) from 3-point range and still lost.

The Warriors are a tired, banged up, struggling team right now.  They are without Draymond Green and Jonathan Kuminga, and the loss of Kuminga has coincided with their recent struggles.  Podziemski, Anderson and Looney are all questionable. 

The Warriors are 3-6 SU & 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with their two of their three wins coming by a combined 4 points, and the other being an 8-point home win over the lowly Wizards as 14-point favorites.  They have a 40-point home loss to Boston, an upset road loss at Toronto, a 12-point road loss at Indiana, a 16-point home loss to Miami and a 30-point home loss to Sacramento during this stretch.

Te Bulls are fresh and ready to go after having the last two days off.  There's a chance they get back to full strength tonight with both White and Dosunmu questionable.  They won 112-99 as 6.5-point road dogs to the Clippers last time out and get to stay out West for this one.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Bulls won outright as 8.5-point dogs and outright as 4.5-point dogs in their last two trips to Golden State.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Thursday.

20* Celtics/Lakers TNT No-Brainer on Los Angeles +5.5

This is a terrible spot for the Boston Celtics.  They needed OT to beat a short-handed Clippers team last night that was without Kawhi, Harden and Powell.  They managed to win 117-113 as 12.5-point favorites.

But now they are on tired legs after Tatum played over 42 minutes, White over 42 and Brown over 38 last night.  They were without Porzingis, Horford and Holiday and there's a chance they return tonight listed as questionable.  But either way, those three are tired, and the team as a whole is tired playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight.

The Lakers have won three of their last four and are coming off a 23-point rout of the Wizards at home.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 6th game in 16 days.  They are as healthy as they have been all season and ready to take their swing at the defending champs tonight.

The Lakers are 2-3 SU but 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings with two of the losses coing in OT.  The Celtics rarely get margin on them as two of the three losses came by 4 points or less.  Their two wins came by 9 at Boston and by 15 at home.  The spot really favors the Lakers tonight.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +4.5

This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 114-104 loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Trae Young played 40 minutes, Jalen Johnson over 37, Dyson Daniels 33 and De'Andre Hunter 30.  Those four will all be on tired legs if they play again tonight.

Clint Capela, who had 16 points and 10 rebounds against the Pistons last night, has already been ruled out.  They are also without Risacher and Nance Jr.  This is a Hawks team that just have a knack for playing to the level of its competition.  That outright loss to the Pistons last night was normal, and it wouldn't surprise me if they lose outright again tonight.

The spot really favors the Toronto Raptors.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days so they couldn't be more fresh.  They are coming off a 109-93 home win over the Magic, and they beat the Celtics outright as 14-point dogs and the Warriors outright as 5-point dogs in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are pretty much as healthy as they have been all season only missing Immanuel Quickley right now.

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series as the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  I fully expect the Raptors to win this game outright tonight, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.