Jack Jones’ Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Cubs/White Sox UNDER 8.5

There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from right-center in Chicago today to aid us in cashing this UNDER 8.5 ticket between the Cubs and White Sox.  I trust both of these starters and bullpens to hold these lineups in check.

Edward Cabera is 3-1 with a 3.88 ERA in eight starts for the Cubs this season.  Cabrera held the White Sox to one earned run in 5 innings of a 3-1 victory in his lone start against them last season.  The Cubs have a 3.74 ERA as a bullpen this season.

Sean Burke is 2-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six starts and two relief appearances this season.  He has allowed just 10 walks and 5 homers in 44 innings.  The White Sox and their opponents have combined for 8 runs or fewer in seven of their last 11 games.

The Cubs have really cooled off at the plate scoring a total of 5 runs in their last five games.  They are 6-0 UNDER in their last six games with 8 or fewer combined runs in all six.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

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20* Spurs/Timberwolves Game 6 No-Brainer on Minnesota +6

The Minnesota Timberwolves have shot worse than 40% from the field in all three of their losses to the San Antonio Spurs in this series.  They shot 45.6% and 44.7% in both wins.  So they have yet to really light it up in this series, and yet they are still very much alive down 3-2 heading home for Game 6.

I trust Chris Finch to make the proper adjustments with two days off in between games for the first time in this series.  He is the better, more experience head coach in this series, and he's a big reason the Timberwolves have reached the Western Conference Finals in consecutive seasons.  This is the most underrated team in the NBA over the last couple playoffs.

The Timberwolves are the more banged up team, so getting two days off will help them more than it will the Spurs as well.  Anthony Edwards looks back to close to 100% scoring 32 and 36 points in two of his last three games.  Having Ayo Dosunmu back healthy is big as well as he has scored double-digits in three games that he has played in this series.  And Naz Reid remains a matchup nightmare for the Spurs in their small ball lineups.

No question this young Spurs team is loaded with talent, but these closeout games especially on the road are very difficult for young teams who haven't been there before.  I trust the Timberwolves to handle the big moment better tonight, and getting a fully 6 points at home is tremendous value for Game 6.  Bet the Timberwolves Friday.

15* Pistons/Cavs Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 210.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  No question the Cavs and Pistons know each other inside and out by now, and points will be very hard to come by in Game 6.  This is a closeout game with the Cavs trying to close them out, and the Pistons trying to stave off elimination.  Defensive intensity will be at max for this one as a result.

Game 5 was tied 103-103 at the end of regulation for just 206 combined points before going to OT.  The OVER is 3-2 as a result, but the UNDER would be 3-2 if not for OT.  And both teams shot it pretty good in Game 5 with the Pistons at 44.2% from the field, 33.3% from 3 and 90% from the FT line.  The Cavs were 45% from the field, 40% from 3 and 81.6% from the FT line.

It's very unlikely both teams shoot it that well again in Game 6 tonight.  And as a result, this game should stay well UNDER the 210.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER Friday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Pirates OVER 8

The Pittsburgh Pirates have quietly been one of the most improved hitting teams in baseball.  They are scoring 5.0 runs per game and allowing 4.3 runs per game.  The Philadelphia Phillies are allowing 4.7 runs per game this season, and they are much better offensively than they have shown to this point.

Aaron Nola is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Nola is 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA in six career road starts at Pittsburgh.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts in Pittsburgh.

Braxton Ashcraft is due some regression after opening 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA in eight starts for the Pirates this season.  The Phillies should get to him.  They have scored 6 runs or more in 11 of their last 20 games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Orioles/Nationals OVER 9

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 28-14-2 OVER in all games this season.  They are scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.8 runs per game.  They just went for 14, 15 and 16 combined runs with the Reds in their three games last series.

The Baltimore Orioles are 14-8-1 OVER in their last 23 games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 14 of those 23 games.  They are allowing 5.2 runs per game this season with a terrible rotation and bullpen.  The Orioles have a 4.14 ERA as a bullpen while the Nationals have a 4.90 ERA.

Shane Baz is 1-4 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Orioles.  He has allowed 26 earned runs and 68 base runners in 44 1/3 innings.  Baz has allowed 10 earned runs and 2 homers in 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

Zack Littell has been even worse.  He is 1-4 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts and three relief appearances this season.  He has allowed 28 earned runs and a whopping 14 homers in 36 1/3 innings.  Littell has allowed 21 earned runs and 11 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night Line Mistake on Royals/Cardinals OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Royals and Cardinals tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at game time.

The Cardinals are scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 4.6 runs per game this season.  The Royals are allowing 4.6 runs per game.  But the Royals are heating up at the plate scoring at least 5 runs in five of their last nine games overall.  They are 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 9 or more combined runs three times.

Michael Wacha is due some regression after opening 4-2 with a 2.63 ERA in eight starts this season.  Wacha has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three starts against the Cardinals, and two of them saw 11 or more combined runs.

Dustin May has been a gas can again this season, going 3-4 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in eight starts for the Cardinals.  He has allowed 23 earned runs and 61 base runners in 42 2/3 innings.  May has allowed 7 earned runs and 16 base runners in 7 2/3 innings in two career starts against Kansas City.  

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Royals and Cardinals with 10 or more combined runs in eight of those 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.