Jack Jones’ Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

15* Villanova/ASU ESPN Late-Night DESSERT on Villanova -4.5

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the most talented teams in the country.  Both Collin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl are two of the best players in the Big East.  Justin Moore is another great player on this roster.  And Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels will play a big role after averaging 16.9 points per game in 2018-19.

I think we are getting Villanova cheap today after failing to cover as 15.5-point favorites in a 76-67 win over an improved Boston College team yesterday.  Gillespie had 15 points, Daniels 14, Moore 14 and Robinson-Earl 18 to lead the way for the Wildcats.  More concerning is that Arizona State struggled to put away a rebuilding Rhode Island team 94-88 yesterday. 

The Wildcats are 30-14-1 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss.  The Sun Devils are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Villanova is a legit national title contender and should be a bigger favorite here.  Bet Villanova Thursday.

15* Colorado State/Air Force MWC ANNIHILATOR on Air Force -5

The Air Force Falcons have been a lot more impressive than their 2-2 record would suggest, and I think they are undervalued as a result.  I cashed them in last week in their 28-0 shutout win over New Mexico as 7.5-point favorites and I’m on them again this week as short home favorites over the Colorado State Rams.

Air Force has outgained three of its four opponents this season with the only exception being the 3 yards it was outgained by in a misleading 6-17 loss to San Jose State.  Speaking of misleading, so was their 30-49 loss to Boise State in which they outgained the Broncos by 25 yards and racked up 484 total yards in defeat.  They beat Navy 40-7 and also beat New Mexico 28-0 while winning the box score big time in both games.

Colorado State also played Boise State and lost 21-52 to give these teams a common opponent.  The Rams only managed 315 total yards against the Broncos while Air Force had 484 as mentioned before.  Their only win of the season was 34-24 over Wyoming, but that was a misleading win as Wyoming outgained them by 123 yards.  And they also lost on the road to Fresno State 17-38 to open the season.  While Air Force is outgaining opponents by 79 yards per game this season, Colorado State is getting outgained by 50 yards per game.

Air Force simply owns Colorado State.  The Falcons are 4-0 SU in the last four meetings while winning by an average of 11.3 points per game.  They have done whatever they wanted to on the ground with their triple-option against this soft Colorado State defense.  The Falcons have averaged 379.5 rushing yards per game in the four straight victories.

Colorado State is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games after allowing 42 points or more last game.  Air Force is 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games after a win by 28 points or more.  Troy Calhoun is 9-0 ATS in home games vs. good rushing defenses that give up 3.25 yards per carry or fewer as the coach of Air Force.  Colorado State hasn’t seen a rushing attack like this one yet, and I’m banking on the Falcons to improve to 10-0 ATS under Calhoun in this situation.  Roll with Air Force Thursday.

20* Cowboys/Washington Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Washington +3

The Washington Football Team has quietly outgained five straight opponents by a combined a combined 549 yards, or by an average of 109.8 yards per game.  They are playing their best football of the season with Alex Smith at quarterback.  He has thrown for 881 yards in his last three games overall.

But what you really have to like about Washington is their defense, which has been one of the best units in the NFL this season.  They give up just 22.7 points and 315.8 yards per game on the year.  This defense limited the Cowboys to just 142 total yards in their first meeting, outgaining them by 255 yards in their 25-3 victory.  I expect more of the same here.  And there’s value with Washington considering the line was PK in the first meeting and now it’s +3.

The Cowboys are now getting too much respect from oddsmakers after covering their last two games against the Steelers as 14-point dogs and the Vikings as 7-point dogs.  But they were fortunate to beat the Vikings last week because they were outgained by 54 yards and their pathetic defense still gave up 430 yards to the Vikings in the win.

And that’s where the advantage for Washington lies here is on the defensive side of the ball.  The Cowboys give up 31.8 points and 386.4 yards per game this season.  They can’t stop the run as they give up 154 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  And Washington is going to be able to run the ball with Antonio Gibson, who had 430 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 4.5 per carry this season.

Washington is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Dallas is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS vs. NFC opponents this season.  Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.  The underdog is 28-13 ATS in the last 41 meetings.  Bet Washington Thursday.

15* Texans/Lions Early Afternoon APPETIZER on Houston -2.5

The Houston Texans got off to a 1-6 start this season because they played the toughest schedule in the NFL up to that point.  Their six losses were against the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings, Titans and Packers.  But they’ve started to play up to their potential now with the schedule easing up.

Indeed, the Texans are 2-1 SU in their last three games overall with their only loss coming on the road to the Browns 7-10 in terrible conditions as 4-point dogs.  They beat the Jaguars on the road and last week topped the Patriots 27-20 at home.  Deshaun Watson is having a monster season still and I trust him to get the job done here.  Watson is completing 68.9% of his passes for 2,883 yards with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio this season, while also rushing for 269 yards and two scores.

The Detroit Lions have some terrible losses this season and are just 4-6 on the year.  Their six losses have come by an average of 14.2 points per game.  And three of their four wins have come by 3 points or less.  So they are close to being a 1-9 football team.  They sure looked the part last week when they were upset 20-0 on the road by the Carolina Panthers.

That was a Panthers team playing without Teddy Bridgewater.  And the Lions just got worked.  They managed just 185 yards of total offense in the loss against a Panthers defense that had given up 46 points to the Bucs the week prior.  A big reason for the Lions’ struggles was all their injuries on offense, and it’s not going to get much better this week.

The Lions were without three of their best playmakers in Kenny Golloday, Danny Amendola and D’Andre Swift last week, and all three are questionable to return.  Matthew Stafford didn’t take a single snap in practice last week because of a thumb injury, and he played with that injured thumb against the Panthers.  And it’s not going to get much better for the Lions offensively on a short week this week.

Watson should be able to light up a Detroit defense that gives up 28.7 points and 397.4 yards per game this season.  The Lions are 0-6 ATS after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game over the last two seasons.  Detroit is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games overall.  The Lions are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.  Take the Texans Thursday.