Jack Jones’ Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5

LSU looks like one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS this season with all five wins coming by 16 points or more and by an average of 34.4 points per game.  That includes wins over solid mid-major programs in Liberty by 16 as 7.5-point favorites and Belmont by 30 as 6.5-point favorites.

Penn State is in rebuilding mode.  The Nittany Lions are 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS this season.  They failed to cover at home against Youngstown State, Cornell and St. Francis-NY.  They also lost outright by 25 at UMass as 4-point favorites in their lone road game.  This is a huge step up in class for Penn State.

Plays on neutral court teams (LSU) - an excellent offensive team that averages at least 76 points per game against an average defensive team allowing 67-74 points per game, after two straight blowout wins by 20 points or more are 24-5 (82.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet LSU Friday.

15* Bucks/Nuggets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -3

The Milwaukee Bucks are 7-0 when Giannis, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have been on the floor together this season.  They have won five straight games by 7 points or more and are playing their best basketball of the season right now at their healthiest point of the season.

Now they take on an injury-ravaged Denver Nuggets team that is not playing well, going 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall with four losses by double-digits.  They are without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., and Nikola Jokic has missed the past three games with a wrist injury and is questionable to return tonight.  I don't think it matters, but would obviously be a bonus if he didn't play.  Roll with the Bucks Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER 224.5

Two teams that are playing very well and like to get up and down square off tonight when the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Charlotte Hornets.  The Hornets rank 4th in the NBA in pace this season while the Timberwolves rank 11th.

Minnesota got De'Angelo Russell back healthy and he has helped spark a 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS run in their last five games overall.  The Timberwolves have scored at least 107 points in all five games and have averaged 116.6 points per game during this stretch.  He is the whole key to their offense, and they play a lot faster with him at the helm.  The Timberwolves will also be without their best defender in Patrick Beverly tonight, which will help the OVER.

Charlotte is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  The Hornets have scored at least 104 points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  They rank 11th in offensive efficiency but just 24th in defensive efficiency this season.  They are an OVER team.

The OVER went 2-0 in two meetings last season with Charlotte winning 120-114 at home for 234 combined points, and 135-012 on the road for 237 combined points.  This game has all the makings of a shootout as well.  Take the OVER Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Memphis Grizzlies -1

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Atlanta Hawks after going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games prior to Thanksgiving.  They had gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their previous six games.  And they won five of those six games at home.

Atlanta has been terrible on the road this season.  The Hawks are 2-8 SU & 1-9 ATS in their 10 road games.  They face a motivated Memphis Grizzlies team that is as healthy as they have been all season now.

The Hawks are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games, including 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs.  The Hawks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs overall.  The Grizzlies are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points.  Bet the Grizzlies Friday.

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Kansas State +3

There's just no salvaging the season for Texas at this point.  The damage has already been done.  They have lost six straight games coming in to fall to 4-7 and out of bowl contention.  I don't see them getting back up off the mat to beat Kansas State Friday, and I'm shocked they are favored given the turmoil within their program.

The Longhorns followed up their 23-point loss to Iowa State by getting upset as 31-point favorites against Kansas.  They failed to show up on the road at West Virginia last week, losing 31-23 as only 2.5-point underdogs.  I cashed in the Mountaineers as a premium pick in that game, and I'm fading the Longhorns again this week as a free pick that nearly made the premium card.

Kansas State doesn't take games off.  I know they will show up with their 'A' game here against Texas, and that should be good enough to win this game outright no matter what kind of effort we get from the Longhorns.  They would love nothing more than to send Texas to the SEC with one final loss just as the rest of the Big 12 has enjoyed doing this season.

The Wildcats are playing very well coming into this game.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their lone loss during this stretch came last week in a 10-20 home loss to Baylor.  Well, Baylor is not only one of the best teams in the Big 12, but one of the best teams in the entire country at 9-2 this season.  This is a big step down in competition for the Wildcats.

Kansas State is 39-15-2 ATS in its last 56 games following an ATS loss.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Kansas State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less.  Texas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet Kansas State Friday.

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15* Cincinnati/East Carolina AAC ANNIHILATOR on East Carolina +14

I think Cincinnati breathes a sigh of relief this week just enough to fail to cover this 14-point spread.  They became the first Group of 5 team to be ranked in the Top 4 of the playoff rankings in the eight years since this system came out.  They finally got recognized after their dominant win over SMU last week, and I think they are overvalued this week as a result.

The fact remains, all the pressure is on Cincinnati here, and that's a lot to deal with.  They hadn't handled it very well in the several weeks prior to SMU, and I think bettors are quickly forgetting that.  And East Carolina is playing too good right now to be catching two touchdowns.  This is the 'National Championship' game for the Pirates with a chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati at home.

The Bearcats went 0-4 ATS in their previous four games prior to beating SMU.  They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen.  They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards.  They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite.  And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite.

East Carolina hasn't lost by more than 14 points all season.  They sit at 7-4 this season so they've already clinched a bowl berth, so they will be kind of free rolling here and playing relaxed football.  Three of their four losses have come by 7 points or less with a 3-point loss to South Carolina, a 4-point loss at UCF and a 7-point loss at Houston.  The 14-point loss was in the opener against Appalachian State.

The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat Tulane by 23, South Florida by 15, Temple by 41, upset Memphis on the road and beat Navy by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite.  That was a huge letdown spot against Navy and they still handled their business.  They had just clinched bowl eligibility the previous week with a win at Memphis.  And they had Cincinnati on deck, so it was a sandwich spot.  So to avoid the upset there against Navy showed a lot about their character.

Not only has East Carolina been a covering machine, they have also dominated the stats here down the stretch.  Indeed, the Pirates have now outgained all seven opponents during this 6-1 ATS stretch.  The last three have been mighty impressive as they outgained Navy by 181 yards, Memphis by 161 yards and Temple by 276 yards.  They also outgained Houston by 109 yards in a road loss in OT, and Houston is nearly as good as Cincinnati.

The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  The Pirates are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game.  Roll with East Carolina Friday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +13.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the UAB Blazers.  They played unbeaten UTSA last week with a trip to the Conference USA Championship Game on the line.  They gave up a touchdown with 3 seconds left to lose, 31-34 in heartbreaking fashion.  I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to beat UTEP by 14-plus points to cover this number now.

Both of these teams are 7-4 this season, but it's UAB that gets the respect while UTEP has been flying under the radar all season.  The Miners got off to a 6-1 start this season before losing three straight, but two of those losses were by exactly 3 points.  They rebounded nicely last week with a 38-28 home win over Rice.  Keep in mind UAB was upset by Rice recently.  And now the Miners want to put a stamp on their season and beat UAB in the finale.  They will be the more motivated team here.

UTEP boasts a balanced offense that averages 252 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and 148 rushing yards per game.  They also boast an underrated defense that allows 23.2 points per game, 339.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  Their numbers are very similar to that of UAB, which has a suspect offense at 389.5 yards per game on the season.  That offense makes it hard for the Blazers to cover these big numbers, especially given the terrible spot for them today.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UTEP) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Take UTEP Friday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan.  The Chippewas have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They made a run to close the season to try and win the MAC West.  But Northern Illinois sealed the West with a win last week in overtime against Buffalo.

Now this is a huge letdown spot for the Chippewas as the wind has been lifted from beneath their sails.  They are no longer playing for a championship, and they already have a bowl bid locked up.  I don't expect them to be nearly as motivated for this game as they would have been with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line.

Eastern Michigan has been grossly underrated for years, including this season.  The Eagles sit at 7-4 this season as well.  Amazingly, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which came on the road at Wisconsin in non-conference play.  That's understandable as Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the country.

Eastern Michigan has pulled several upsets this season.  Most recently, they went into Toledo and won 52-49 as 9-point dogs, while also knocking off a very good Western Michigan team 22-21 as 5-point home dogs.  Whoever wins this game Friday, I expect it to be decided by one score, so there's value here with the Eagles catching 9 points.

Chris Creighton is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Eastern Michigan.  Creighton is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game at EMU.  The Eagles are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 road games, including 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as road underdogs.  Bet Eastern Michigan Friday.