Jack Jones’ Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Boston Red Sox -158 

The Boston Red Sox simply cannot lose right now.  They are 17-2 this season.  They aren’t about to lose with ace Chris Sale on the mound today against the lowly Oakland A’s. 

Sale is 1-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.955 WHIP in four starts this season with 31 K’s in 22 innings.  Sale owns the A’s. Going 4-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.845 WHIP in eight career starts against them. 

Sean Manaea is off to a great start this season for Oakland, but he will meet his match today.  Manaea is 1-2 with a whopping 13.49 ERA and 2.293 WHIP in three career starts against Boston. 

Sale is 28-7 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 14-3 in Sale’s last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Boston is 7-0 in its last seven Saturday games.  Oakland is 0-6 in Manaea’s last six starts when working on five days’ rest.  The A’s are 0-5 in their last five home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Red Sox Saturday.

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15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +141 

The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as home underdogs to the New York Mets today.  They are sending ace Julio Teheran to the mound tonight and should not be this big of dogs. 

Teheran has given up just 3 earned runs in 12 innings over his last two starts.  Teheran loves facing the Mets, going 8-5 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 19 career starts against them. 

Jacob DeGrom is a great starter, but he’s getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He has allowed 7 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He has also given up 6 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against Atlanta. 

New York is 14-42 vs. teams who are outscoring their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.  Atlanta is 5-0 in Teheran’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Saturday. 

15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207 

This has been an UNDER series between the Jazz and Thunder.  I think the books have set the bar too high in this Game 3.  As the series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, and that certainly favors defense. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in the six meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City this season.  Game 1 was clearly the aberration as they combined for 224 points.  But the other five meetings saw 197, 192, 186, 194 and 183 combined points.  That’s an average of 196.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207, showing that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Utah) - in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 56-26 (68.3%) since 1996.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Oklahoma City) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, extremely well-rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 73-33 (68%) over the last five seasons. 

Oklahoma City is 27-11 UNDER as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 11-3 UNDER off a home loss this season.  The Jazz are 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing with two days’ rest this season.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4.5 

Minnesota fans will be raucous as they’ve waited a long time for a home playoff game.  Look for the Timberwolves to respond in a big way and get right back in this series with a big Game 3 win at home tonight. 

Minnesota played well in a 101-104 Game 1 loss as 11.5-point underdogs.  But they couldn’t make anything in Game 2 and lost 82-102.  They also turned the ball over 16 games and shot just 27.8% from 3-point range.  It’s safe to say they will play much better here tonight. 

I think this is the game where the Timberwolves say enough is enough.  The Rockets have had their number over the past two seasons, winning eight straight meetings coming in.  Look for them to relax enough after taking a 2-0 lead that the Timberwolves will be by far the more motivated, aggressive team in Game 3. 

Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season.  It is winning by 13.8 points per game on average in this spot this year.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.