Jack Jones’ Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Cincinnati Reds -133

I'll get back on the Cincinnati Reds today after a tough 6-5 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates yesterday.  They need wins like blood right now to try and make the postseason, especially after losing three straight coming in.

The Reds have a big advantage on the mound tonight that should have them being bigger favorites here.  Vladimir Gutierrez is 9-6 with a 4.05 ERA in 19 starts this season, including 6-2 with a 3.43 ERA in 11 road starts.  Gutierrez held the Pirates to one run in 6 innings in a 11-3 victory on August 7th in his lone start against them this season.

Mitch Keller is one of the worst starters in all of baseball.  He is 4-11 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.771 WHIP in 19 starts, including 2-8 with an 8.20 ERA and 2.049 WHIP in 12 home starts.  Keller has never beaten the Reds, going 0-3 with an 8.86 ERA and 1.969 WHIP in five career starts against them.

The Pirates are 1-11 in Keller's last 12 starts following a win in their previous game.  The Reds are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Cincinnati is 18-5 in the last 23 meetings, including 9-2 in 11 meetings in 2021.  Bet the Reds Wednesday.

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15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers +211

The Detroit Tigers are 69-76 (+20.7 Units) on the season and 38-36 (+11.5 Units) at home.  They have been one of the most profitable teams to back in all of baseball.  They take on the Milwaukee Brewers, who don't have much to play for the rest the way as they already have the NL Central division title locked up.

Matt Manning hasn't posted great numbers this season, but he has been much more effective at home at 2-2 with a 4.72 ERA in seven starts.  The Tigers are 4-3 (+2.1 Units) in his seven home starts this season.

Brandon Woodruff has posted great season-long numbers, but he is coming off a very poor start against the Philadelphia Phillies.  He allowed 4 earned runs, 3 homers and 10 base runners in 6 innings of a 12-0 loss to the Phillies on September 6th.

Simply put, the Tigers shouldn't be more than 2-to-1 underdog to the Brewers tonight.  They are 4-1 in their last five games overall with wins as +190, +130, +145 and +115 underdogs.  Take the Tigers Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco Giants -103

The San Francisco Giants are coming up clutch here late in the season with the NL West division on the line.  They are 9-0 in their last eight games with eight wins by two runs or more.  They have scored at least 6 runs in all nine wins, so they are stupid hot at the plate right now.

The San Diego Padres are falling flat on their faces while trying to make the wild card.  They are 0-5 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 6 runs in the five losses, averaging just 1.2 runs per game.  They can't be trusted right now.

Dominic Leone is just an opener for the Giants but has pitched 5 shutout innings in three starts in this role.  Joe Musgrove is getting too much respect here considering he is 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA in four career starts against the Giants.  That includes 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA in two starts against the Giants in 2021, allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings.

The Padres are 8-21 in their last 29 games overall.  The Giants are 47-23 in their last 70 home games.  San Francisco is 41-12 in its last 53 games after scoring 5 runs or more in its previous game.  The Giants are 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the Giants Wednesday.

20* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Toronto Blue Jays -162

The Toronto Blue Jays are 15-3 in their last 18 games overall and the hottest team in baseball.  They are tied with the Red Sox and Yankees for the two wild card spots in the American League.  They need to keep winning and will be highly motivated to do so.

The Tampa Bay Rays are 2-4 in their last six games overall.  They basically have the AL East wrapped up at this point with not much to play for the rest of the way.  Now they have to take on a red hot Blue Jays team that has scored 5 runs or more in 12 of their last 14 games, including a combined 52 runs in their last five games for an average of 10.4 runs per game.

Robbie Ray is neck and neck with Gerrit Cole for the Cy Young award.  Ray has allowed 4 earned runs or fewer in 29 consecutive starts, including 3 earned runs or fewer in 26 of those.  He is 1-1 with a 1.65 ERA in his last five starts against the Rays while allowing just 6 earned runs in 32 2/3 innings with 44 K's.  Four of those starts have come this season.

Michael Wacha is 3-4 with a 3.63 ERA in 20 starts this season.  Wacha has been at his worst on the road, going 1-3 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in 11 starts away from home.  The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last six during Game 3 of a series.  Toronto is 6-1 in its last seven games following a loss.  Bet the Blue Jays Wednesday.