Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

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This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Divisional Game of the Year. Brooklyn is 12-11 after a 113-107 win over the Wizards on Wednesday to improve to 3-0 on its season-long seven-game homestand. Kevin Durant has carried the offense of late as he has scored 30 or more points in four straight games and while Brooklyn is just 5-7 when he scores at least 30 points, half of those games took place when the Nets lost six of their first eight games and since then, they are 10-5 and becoming more dangerous as the defense has also picked it up. Brooklyn has allowed just 106.5 ppg over that 15-game stretch and will be out to extend its five-game home winning streak. It is safe to say a coaching change has been a great move. Toronto is coming off an 19-point loss at New Orleans on Wednesday which was its sixth loss in its last seven road games to fall to 3-8 on the season on the highway. This is not a good spot to get right as the defense has regressed as the Raptors have allowed opponents to shoot 50 percent or higher in six of their last nine games and they are catching a red hot offense that has surpassed 50 percent from the floor in seven of their last eight games. Toronto has had no rhythm throughout the season as it has won back-to-back games four times but was unable to turn that into three straight wins all four times and the Raptors are coming off starting their 12th different lineup and that kills continuity. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having won five or six of their last seven games, with a winning percentage between .450 and .550. This situation is 51-17 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (564) Brooklyn Nets

This is a play on the USC TROJANS for our Pac 12 Championship Winner. Utah has a shot to make it to back-to-back Rose Bowl games which would be the first team since Stanford did it in 2013 and 2014 but it will not be easy with this matchup. Last season, the Utes had a big mismatch with Oregon which it also dominated during the regular season and while they have already defeated USC this season, that game was at home and it was far from a domination in a one-point victory. Utah backed into this game as it went down to the fourth tiebreaker between them, Washington and Oregon and it had the edge in conference strength of schedule of the three. The Utes finished 6-0 at home but only 3-3 away from home with all three of those wins coming in the Pac 12 against teams that had losing conference records. This is no doubt an all-around great team as they are ranked in the top 20 on both sides of the ball but the difference here will be its defense will not be able to stop the USC offense similar to where it allowed 556 yards in the regular season meeting at that was at home. The Trojans had a couple scares along the way with one possession wins at Arizona, Oregon St. and UCLA but they won the yardage battle in all of those true road games and the Utah game was the lone game they were outgained this season and that was by only six total yards. This offense has been humming as USC has scored 38 or more points in six straight games while accumulating over 500 yards five times, averaging 551.3 ypg over that stretch and there is no reason for that to end especially against a defense that is has already schooled. Quarterback Caleb Williams has come into his own as he has averaged 353.6 ypg with 20 touchdowns over the last six games after averaging 265.0 ypg with 14 touchdowns in his first six games and he has tossed only three interceptions all season long. The Trojans are back and a win gets them into the CFP as long as there is no Ohio St. bias. 10* (306) USC Trojans