Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the NEW YORK JETS for our Sunday Free Play. The Jets came through last week with a three-point win over Atlanta as a three-point underdog and they are getting the same line this week against a team ranked lower than the Falcons. New York continues to fight as it weas rolled in games against the Bills and Cowboys at home early in the season but the Jets are 2-1 in their three home games since those other two games with a two-point neutral field loss against Denver in the mix as well. The metrics are not good as New York is No. 27 in both Offensive and Defensive EPA. This is not much different than the numbers of Miami as the Dolphins are No. 26 in both of those categories and now they are on the road as favorites. They did win their last road game against Atlanta but that was way back on October 26 and Miami was 0-4 on the road prior to that Falcons game. Tua Tagovailoa has been a turnover machine of late as he has 10 interceptions in his last seven games and the Jets could get their first of the season. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss by seven points or less. This situation is 30-4 ATS (88.2 percent) since 2016. Play (124) New York Jets

After the Lions Win, Matt is on a 230-193-9 NFL Run. FIVE Sunday winners. CBB 62-45 Run and the red hot run extended Sunday with THREE Winners. CFB 12-5 run after a 4-1 Championship Weekend. Bowl Winners upcoming.`

This is a play on the SMU MUSTANGS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. After an 8-0 start, SMU got throttled at Vanderbilt in the ACC/SEC Challenge, losing by 19 points in a game it was never really in. The Mustangs went the final 6:49 without a field goal and SMU had its streak of 13 consecutive victories in nonconference regular-season games snapped with the loss. The Mustangs are listed as the home team here but it is being played at the home of the UT Arlington Mavericks but it is still a close 21 miles to the SMU campus. Texas A&M is finally playing basketball after a horrible start as it opened 2-2 with double-digit losses against Oklahoma St. and UCF. The Aggies have won five straight games but there are still issues and right in the middle of the winning streak was a win over Mississippi Valley St., the worst team in the country, allowing 84 points. 10* (800) SMU Mustangs

This is a play on the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS for our CBB Rivalry Smash. Nebraska is off to an 8-0 start and after winning the CBC Championship last season, the Huskers own the nation’s longest current winning streak at 12 games. Typically, we like to fade these runs but in this case, the value is here as Nebraska has dropped its last three games against the number with the markets having to adjust. The Huskers begin Big Ten Conference action after this but there is no lookahead as this is a huge rivalry and it is time to get back on track as the road team has won and covered the last four meetings. Creighton is expected to contend in the Big East Conference once again but it has been an uneven start as the Bluejays are 5-3, going 4-0 at home while the one victory not in Omaha was in the Players ERA Tournament over a disappointing Oregon team that is 0-9 ATS. 10* (796) Nebraska Cornhuskers

This is a play on the UTSA ROADRUNNERS for our CBB Ultimate Underdog. Alabama is coming off a win against Clemson but it was far from easy as the Tide built a huge early lead only to see the Tigers come back to actually take a lead but Alabama held on late. It has been a brutal schedule that is ranked No. 1 and this is the sleeper game before it ramps up again with a game against Arizona. Aden Holloway missed Wednesday's game against Clemson after aggravating a wrist injury and if head coach Nate Oats knows what to do long-term, Holloway sits again. Keitenn Bristow and Latrell Wrightsell Jr. also remained sidelined with injuries. UTSA is 4-4 and off a loss against South Alabama by 24 points and while this is nothing more than a payday for the Roadrunners, they could not catch Alabama at a better time and still getting an absurd amount of points. 10* (775) UTSA Roadrunners

This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our Divisional Game of the Year. We will keep fading this overvalued and overhyped Denver team as it remains No. 2 in the Luck Ratings as it pulled off yet another win it easily could have lost, defeating Washington in overtime on a Commanders missed two-point conversion. The Broncos are 10-2 with eight of those wins coming by one possession including their last four wins by a total of 10 points. A nine-game winning streak is nothing to scoff at in this league as winning is hard but it can also be lucky at times and the markets have to keep adjusting the wrong way for bettors backing them. The Raiders were unable to get the offense going in the first game since offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was let go but now back home, the effort will continue to be there. Here, we play against road teams after allowing seven points or less in the first half in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 17 points or less in four straight games. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (138) Las Vegas Raiders

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. The Buccaneers snapped a three-game losing streak with a three-point win over the Cardinals and of its seven wins, that was the fifth one possession victory as the Buccaneers remain one of the luckier teams in the league. Injuries really got to them and while they are getting healthier, they are not there yet especially at wide receiver and the Buccaneers are still being priced like they are a dominant team and they are not. Tampa Bay is No. 18 in Offensive EPA and No. 12 in Defensive EPA and in another sell high spot. New Orleans has officially been eliminated from the postseason as it has lost two straight to fall to 2-10. The offense has struggled but the defense has played at an above average level as the Saints are No. 14 in EPA. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite, playing a losing team. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1983. 10* (135) New Orleans Saints

This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Rivalry Rout. The Colts were deemed the best team in the NFL not that long ago and it does not take long for minds to change and gears to switch. Indianapolis has lost two straight games and three of its last four but those were all one possession losses and despite the offense regressing the last couple games behind a fractured Daniel Jones fibula, the Colts are still No. 2 in Offensive EPA. In a very surprising meeting stat is the fact that the Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014 as they have lost the last 10 trips there. Since suffering that brutal loss in Houston where they were outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter, the Jaguars have won three straight games to move into a first place tie in the AFC South with the Colts and the number is now on the Colts side. Here, we play against teams after allowing six points or less last game against an opponent after a loss by six or less points. This situation is 58-24 (70.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (131) Indianapolis Colts

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. This is the classic spot where we have a team on a huge roll facing a team off a bad loss and laying big lumber on the road and we saw what happened to the Rams last week. The Seahawks are coming off a shutout of the Vikings 26-0 which is another reason to fade and despite the majority of the money on them, the line has slightly dropped. Atlanta has lost six of seven and no one will want to back them. Seattle is in a classic fade spot for a dominant team late in the season as we go against teams in December or later off a win with a winning percentage of .700 or better and a spread cover percentage of 60 percent or better and outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg. This situation is 81-51-5 ATS (61.4 percent) since 2003. Also, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points outscoring opponents by 10 or more ppg, after a win by 10 or more points. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) since 2016. 10* (130) Atlanta Falcons

This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. Baltimore is coming off a brutal loss on Thanksgiving against the Bengals 32-14 but the Ravens were outgained by just 36 yards as they committed five turnovers which was the ultimate downfall. They are now tied with the Steelers at 6-6 for first place in the AFC North with the Bengals now back in it with a healthy Joe Burrow. This is one of those rivalries where the dog was the automatic take as since 2005, the underdog is 29-12-3 ATS but not at this state of the Steelers. They are coming off a brutal game against Buffalo as the offense managed 166 yards against a bad Bills defense while their own defense allowed 249 yards rushing on 51 carries (4.9 ypc) so Derrick Henry could go off. Pittsburgh has lost five of seven and now has internal issues. Here, we play on home division favorites coming off a divisional loss and playing with 10 or more days off. This situation is 38-17 ATS (69.1 percent) since 2011. 10* (128) Baltimore Ravens