Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Like the Wizards in their series against a No. 1 seed, the Timberwolves have their backs against the wall, but a return home should energize them and get them back into the series. Houston showed its depth in Game One as James Harden scored only 12 points on 2-18 shooting, but the Rockets were still able to win by 20 points. Second chance points were a big part of that game for Houston and that has to change and the one player than can turn that around is Karl Anthony-Towns. He has been held in check as he has scored just 13 points combined but has decent on the boards but can still improve there as well. The Timberwolves are 30-11 at home and while two of those losses came against Houston, the rockets were unconscious in both of those games from long range, going a combined 38-82 (46.3 percent) and we do not see that continuing here. This is the first home playoff game in 13 years for Minnesota so to say it will be a crazy atmosphere is an understatement. The Timberwolves are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games while the Rockets have failed to cover their last four road games and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight game against the Western Conference. Here, we play on home underdogs after a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing their third game or less games in 10 days. This situation is 105-65 ATS (61.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (722) Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Saturday Afternoon Dominator. The Sixers had their 17-game winning streak snapped at home in Game Two of this series because of a memorable performance from Dwyane Wade off the bench as he poured in 28 points, the first time he has scored more than 13 points since early March. He did not come close to backing that up in Game Three and no one on this team has the ability to step up right now. With Joel Embiid back on the floor, Philadelphia showed what a dominant team it has become as it shot 50.6 percent from the floor in its 20-point win on Thursday in Game Three. Miami did defeat the Sixers at home twice during the regular season and a main reason for that was the play of Hassan Whiteside, but he has been nonexistent in this series as he has scored a combined 11 points in the three games as he continues to deal with foul troubles and a place in the doghouse with head coach Eric Spoelstra. The Sixers are 22-11 ATS in their last 33 games coming off a road win and 21-11 ATS in their 32 games this season coming off a double-digit win. Additionally, we play against home teams in April games coming off a home loss by 20 or more points. This situation is 41-15 ATS (73.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (717) Philadelphia 76ers

This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Arizona got a great pitching performance from Matt Koch as he went six innings and allowed just one run on two hits, but it was the best bullpen in baseball that let them down. The Diamondbacks allowed three ninth inning runs although they never deserved the game to begin with as the offense could manage only one hit the entire game and we expect that to change in a big way tonight. The offense has been a letdown all season as they are hitting just .221, third worst in baseball, but they enter tonight 5-0 in their last five games following a loss. The Padres snapped a three-game slide, but it too has struggled on offense although that is something that was expected entering the season after finishing dead last a year ago with a .234 average. This season, they are hitting .222 and banking on the pitching once again will be costly as the Padres are 7-22 in their last 29 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Arizona looks for another strong performance from a starting pitcher and they should get it from Zack Godley. He is off to a solid start, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first three starts despite a poor outing at the Dodgers last time out. His first full season in the rotation last season was a success as he had a 3.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 26 games. Clayton Richard counters for San Diego and after a good opening start, he has been awful his last three games with a 7.80 ERA and 1.93 WHIP. Going back, the Diamondbacks are 24-5 in their last 29 home games against left-handed starters. 8* (962) Arizona Diamondbacks

This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. We won last night with Toronto as a big underdog as the value was on the Blue Jays side, but it has shifted for today. New York is now 9-9 on the season which is considered a big disappointment with what they came into the season with, but it is still early, and it has a good matchup today for a bounce back. The Yankees have won four of their last five games following a loss and they have been solid when the price is within reason as they are 22-8 in their last 30 games as home favorites of -150 or less. Toronto is off to a great start as it kept pace with Boston as it sits four games behind the Red Sox at 13-6. The Blue Jays offense has led the way of late as they are hitting .336 against right-handed pitching over the last five games however, they are hitting only .211 against lefties over that stretch and that is what they face today. Jordan Montgomery has been average to start the season, but he is coming off his best start as it was his first quality outing and the first game where he issued no walks. He dominated Toronto last season, allowing just one run in 11.1 innings over two starts. Marcus Stroman has not been sharp as all three of his starts have been poor, allowing at least four runs in each game. He has a 7.98 ERA including an 8.38 ERA in two road starts and this is not the place to cure his issues. He is 2-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in seven career starts at Yankee Stadium. 8* (966) New York Yankees

This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Saturday Power Play. Home ice has not been a big factor in the playoffs thus far as home teams are 18-17 which is nearly the same record as the 18-19 mark after the first 10 days of the postseason last year. Four of the 17 road wins have come from this series as Columbus too the first two games against Washington in overtime and then the Capitals returned the favor by winning the last two games in Columbus. The Capitals matched the Blue Jackets two-game road sweep and raised the stakes even more with the victory, which was the first that ended in regulation, so they bring that momentum back home. Washington goalie Braden Holtby will be making his third straight start after two great efforts in Columbus. The fact that Philipp Grubauer got the start in the first two games was surprising considering his lack of playoff experience, which cannot be said for Holtby. Among NHL goaltenders who have made a minimum of 50 starts in the playoffs, he ranks second all-time with a .932 career save percentage in the postseason to go along with an outstanding 1.97 GAA. Columbus is 4-11 this season revenging two straight losses as a favorite while Washington is 17-1 in its last 18 home games after a win by three or more goals. Additionally, we play against road underdogs against the moneyline after allowing three goals or more in four straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three goals or more in five straight games. This situation is 92-33 (73.6 percent) since 1996. 8* (70) Washington Capitals