Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Cleveland took a pair of games against Houston over the weekend to force a series split of the Astros and the Guardians now trail Minnesota by just one game in the American League Central. They hit the road where they are 27-30, compared to 29-22 at home, and they are big favorites based on the starting pitching matchup which by name looks to be in their favor but not so much when looking deeper. Shane Bieber is coming off a pair of solid outings against the Rays and Diamondbacks to drop his ERA to 3.47 on the season but he has struggled on the road of late. Over his last three outings on the highway, he has a 5.79 ERA and 1.40 WHIP covering 18.2 innings. Detroit lost three of four against Tampa Bay and has lost seven of its last nine games overall but have still been very competitive at home. The Tigers are 18-37 on the highway, which is the worst road record in baseball, but are 25-30 at home which is nothing special but have taken down some big underdog numbers of late, including a +225 win over Shane McClanahan, and have a chance for another one here. Tyler Alexander opened the season in the Tigers starting rotation but that lasted only four starts where he posted an 8.76 ERA and was send to the minors. He was recalled in mid-June and was solid out of the bullpen and has made two starts of late, allowing just four runs total. Here, we play against American League road teams with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season, after a combined score of two runs or less. This situation is 82-34 (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Detroit Tigers

This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. Fresh off a sweep over the Yankees, the Cardinals have now won seven straight games and they have moved into first place in the National League Central, two games clear of the Brewers. The last six wins came at home where St. Louis is 35-20, the third best home record in the National League but it is just 25-28 on the road and this is a place where even the best teams can have bad things happen. Miles Mikolas is coming off a quality outing at home against the Cubs but has a 5.40 ERA over his last three starts and in six career appearances, four starts, against the Rockies, he has a 5.92 ERA including an 8.44 ERA in three games at Coors Field. The Rockies are back home for a much needed change of scenery. Colorado has gone 5-13 since the All-Star break and lost six of eight on its most recent road trip against San Diego and Arizona. They dropped to 18-36 on the road, which is the second worst road record in baseball, a half-game better than Detroit, but they are 30-27 at home while showing +7.7 units of profit. Ryan Feltner will be making another spot start in place of Chad Kuhl and he has been up and down. His last four starts have been on the road and his one home start not against the Braves resulted in seven innings where he allowed just one run on one hit, a home run, against Miami. Here, we play on National League home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season and who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 30-14 (68.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies