Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Interleague Game of the Month. The Cubs closed as a short underdog last night despite the disparity in records and it is even more today because of one name. Chicago is 15-9 including 9-3 at home following its second straight win over Houston and we should see a great environment here. The Astros are in a bad place right now as they have the second worst record in the American League with the third worst pitching staff in all of baseball with a 5.14 ERA which includes one of the worst bullpens. Injuries have hurt them and there is hope with Justin Verlander back but he is always overvalued. Verlander looked good in his return as he allowed two runs over six innings against Washington but has a much tougher matchup. Javier Assad counters for Chicago and he has been great with a 2.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts and this should not be surprising after he was awesome last season when entering the rotation, allowing more than three runs only once in nine starts and that was in Colorado. Here, we play against road teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season, stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season. This situation is 30-9 (76.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Chicago Cubs

This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Cleveland took advantage of its home floor with a pair of nearly identical wins as its top rated defense locked down and allowed 83 and 86 points on 32.6 percent and 36.2 percent shooting respectively. What is not being said much is the fact the Cavaliers offense was not very good as they did not get over 97 points and shot 44 percent or less in both games. Cleveland is a solid 23-19 on the road but now goes to an environment with its first home playoff game since April of 2019. The Magic have had no offense and never even had a lead in Cleveland and while the Cavaliers defense has been the catalyst, Orlando has not shot well as it has missed wide open looks but the return home will cure that. The Magic are 29-11 at home where they shoot 48.8 percent and they are not dead yet in this series despite only 8.6 percent of the 313 times that teams were down 0-2 and came back to win but in 22 of the 27 times it was the road team that came back including six times the last three years. Here, we play on home favorites after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (526) Orlando Magic

This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA 76ERS for our NBA Divisional Game of the Month. The Sixers have fallen down 2-0 in this series following a brutal defeat in Game Two where they blew a five-point lead with 47 seconds left and were outscored 8-0 the rest of the way. The final 30 seconds were filled with controversy with missed fouls and missed time outs for Philadelphia and the NBA has actually come forward with the mishaps. The Sixers will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and this is obviously a must win and there will be a message sent in Game Three. Tyrese Maxey was incredible despite playing with the flu and it will be up to him and Joel Embiid, who has been hobbling around with the knee issue, to again pick this team up which we fully expect at home. The Knicks have won five of the six meetings in this season series including a pair of blowouts in Philadelphia in January and February which is surprising without a huge matchup advantage. Philadelphia is 24-9 as a home favorite this season and laying a good number in this one. Here, we play against road underdogs off three or more consecutive home wins, playing five or less games in 14 days. This situation is 40-16 (71.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (528) Philadelphia 76ers