Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. BLUE RAIDERS for our CBB Saturday Enforcer. Three teams currently possess 0-8 ATS records on the season and Middle Tennessee St. is one of those. The Blue Raiders have lost six straight games to fall to 3-7 on the season and after a week off, this is a good spot to get things going in the other direction. We played on Middle Tennessee St. last Saturday as it lost at home against Murray St. and while the losses are no excuse, the opposition has been brutal. The Blue Raiders have played a very tough schedule as they have played the No. 4 ranked slate in the nation. Toledo meanwhile has won seven straight games but the schedule has been a complete opposite as the Rockets have played the No. 235 schedule in the nation so this is the perfect contrarian setup as this line is set on records alone. The Rockets are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams with a losing road record while the Blue Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Additionally, we play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after three straight losses by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 56-25 ATS (69.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (635) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

This is a play on the COLORADO AVALANCHE for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Two struggling teams square off Saturday night as both Dallas and Colorado are on three-game losing streaks and we give a big edge to the Avalanche. We lost with Colorado last night as it fell in overtime in St. Louis but it still maintains its third place spot in the Central Division. The Avalanche have played only 12 home games which is the fewest in the league and this game starts the stretch of 10 games where they are home for eight of those. Dallas has dropped the first three games of this four-game roadtrip and has lost 12 of 18 broad games on the season compared to a 10-3-1 record at home. While Colorado is playing the second of a back-to-back, the Stars are any more rested with this being their third game in four nights and going back, they are 16-36 in their last 52 games in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Here, we play against underdogs after two or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after three or more consecutive losses. This situation is 356-165 (68.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (34) Colorado Avalanche

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Minnesota has dropped the first three games of this four-game roadtrip and it is now 2-11 on the highway for the season but the schedule has been brutal. All 11 losses have come against teams with winning records while the two wins came against losing teams and both of those were covers as road favorites. Phoenix is coming off a rare win as it won at home against Dallas for just its fifth win of the season and the Suns have failed to win or cover after its previous four victories. Phoenix is 4-11 ATS this season as an underdog of fewer than nine points while going 0-6 ATS in its last six games against teams with a losing straight up record. Here, we play on road favorites off two or more consecutive road losses, playing six or less games in 14 days. This situation is 57-28 ATS (67.1 percent) since 1996. 10* (511) Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a play on the MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. This is another situation where we will be going against a team that should be very unprepared because of a coaching change. Former Appalachian St. Head Coach Scot Satterfield left for the Louisville job with his two coordinators so interim coach Mark Ivey, assistant head and defensive line coach steps in. The Mountaineers won their first ever SBC Championship in a 30-19 win over Louisiana and while we give them credit in playing Penn St. tough in their season opener, the level of competition was bad the rest of the way. How bad? They were favored in all of their final 11 games by at least 10.5 points so based on the number here, Appalachian St. is taking a step up in competition. We played against Middle Tennessee St. in the C-USA Championship as it lost to UAB by two points despite outgaining the Blazers by 91 total yards. The Blue Raiders closed the season by outgaining each of their last five opponents and by an average of 145.4 ypg and making that more impressive is that they were underdog in two of those games. Three of their five losses came against SEC teams, with all three going to a bowl game including No. 5 Georgia and No. 14 Kentucky, so they played a much tougher schedule and the other two losses came by just five points combined and also coming against bowl teams. Middle Tennessee St. is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games after one or more consecutive straight up losses. Here, we play on bowl teams who lost their conference championship game by seven or less points going up against an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or better and not off a win by more than 18 points. This situation is 19-1 ATS (95 percent) since 1992. 10* (209) Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. This line has come down substantially with the main factor being Utah St. losing the entire coaching staff as head coach Matt Wells, offensive coordinator Dave Yost, and defensive coordinator Keith Patterson are all headed to Texas Tech so co-defensive coordinator Frank Maile will be in charge on Saturday. While the number has come down, it is still above the key number seven and that is significant for North Texas which will be out to bounce back from consecutive bowl losses, especially for the seniors that want to go out with a victory. The Mean Green finished the season 9-3 and while they closed on a 0-5 ATS run, they were favored in four of those including three by double digits. The three losses this season were all by one possession and even more important, North Texas outgained every opponent this season, the only team in the country to do so. It won the yardage battle by 113.3 and that is significant, especially when dealing with an underappreciated underdog. Utah St. had a special season where it went 10-2 that included a 10-game winning streak bookended by losses against Michigan St. and Boise St. The problem is that it is hard to determine how good the Aggies really as only two of those 10 wins came against teams competing in a bowl game. Overall, they played the No. 14 ranked schedule in the country, easily the softest in the MWC. The Aggies are 4-15 ATS against teams with a winning record and we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning percentage of .800 or better off a road loss against a conference rival, playing a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .800. This situation is 24-4 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (201) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Saturday Enforcer. As a situational handicapper for the most part, this one sets up very well and while this number does not look ideal, it is based on the talent gap and in this case, it is huge. Houston had its nine-game winning streak snapped at home last week against the Colts and now sits two games ahead of Indianapolis in the AFC South with a couple marginal tests remaining. While the Texans have had some close road games, five of the six came against teams still in the playoff hunt and the lone exception resulted in a 13-point win at Jacksonville. Houston is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games after allowing 400 or more total ypg in their last three games. The Jets snapped a six-game losing streak with a win in Buffalo last week thanks to three Bills turnovers. New York has been outgained in seven of its last eight games including differentials in its last four games of -252, -160, -123 and -120. The Jets are ranked No. 30 in offensive efficiency and that has been the big downfall as the defense has at least been average. It could be even worse this week as New York could be without its leading rusher and second leading receiver. The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on road favorites with a completion percentage of 60 percent or better, after allowing 7.0 or more passing ypa in three straight games. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1983. 10* (303) Houston Texans