Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS PELICANS as part of our NBA Wednesday Trifecta. This is a contrarian play on the Pelicans with two teams on totally opposite runs. New Orleans has lost nine straight games while failing to cover eight of those. The Bucks meanwhile have won 15 straight games so these recent results are inflating this line in a big way. Milwaukee is just 7-8 ATS in those games as the lines have already been inflated and it is just 4-7 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite. For New Orleans, Derrick Favors is likely to return and his importance to the success of the team cannot be understated. New Orleans is surrendering 52.1 paint points per game to their opponents, the third-highest mark in the NBA and have allowed the most shot attempts per game within the restricted area this season. Here, we play against home favorites of 10 or more points with a winning percentage of .750 or better after having covered two of their last three games against the spread, a playing a team with a winning percentage between .250 and .400. This situation is 94-51 ATS (64.8 percent) since 1996. 9* (517) New Orleans Pelicans

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES as part of our NBA Wednesday Trifecta. Utah has been a major disappointment this season as it comes in with a 13-11 record but expectations were much higher than this and the struggles have been escalated recently. After an awful roadtrip in which the Jazz went just 1-4 and were blown out three times followed up immediately by a blowout loss to the Lakers, a win over the Grizzlies would have though to right the ship but that was followed up by another bad loss against the Thunder. Utah is just 2-6 since November 25, both wins coming against the Grizzlies. Minnesota last lost five straight games while failing to cover any of those and brings in a mediocre 3-7 record at home including five straight losses. That is keeping this number down and we have no problem backing them here as a home underdog. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a home loss going up against an opponent off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (512) Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a play on the INDIANA PACERS as part of our NBA Wednesday Trifecta. Boston has won four straight games but the last three have come at home where it is a perfect 10-0 on the season. The Celtics are just 7-5 on the road which is good for a lot of teams but the home/road dichotomy is important here. They are just 2-4 over their last six road games with one of those wins coming against the 4-20 Knicks. After suffering a deflating loss at home by the hands of the Clippers on Monday, the Pacers are now in sixth place in the Eastern Conference with a 15-9 record. However, the return of a healthy Malcolm Brogdon is a glaring positive as he is averaging a career high 19.1 ppg. The Pacers are 3-0 ATS as underdogs of fewer than five points and going back, they are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games following a double-digit loss at home. Here, we play against road teams after three consecutive covers as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (502) Indiana Pacers

This is a play on the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE for our CBB Wednesday Enforcer. Tulsa is coming off a bad loss on Saturday as it lost at home against Arkansas St. as a 12.5-point favorite. It was their first non-conference loss in 19 games for the Golden Hurricane which had won six straight games prior to that. It was a bad luck game as Tulsa shot 51.1 percent from the floor but the difference was from the free throw line as Arkansas St. went 14-17 while Tulsa was just 8-11 from the charity stripe. Tulsa was 18-14 last season and while just two starters came back, Martins Igbanu is a potential All-AAC player and the addition of transfer Brandon Rachal has been huge as he is averaging 15.9 ppg and 7.1 rpg while shooting 59 percent from the floor. Boise St. comes into this game following a 75-64 win at home against Colorado St. which was the Broncos first in Mountain West Conference victory this season after losing its opener at New Mexico. The Broncos have covered five straight games which is a big reason they are getting two-thirds of the action here yet the line has actually stayed firm. Last season, Tulsa was one of just seven Division I programs without a scholarship freshmen on its roster but this season, the 14-man roster has a combined 18 years of Division I playing experience which will pay dividends in a bounce back spot. 10* (642) Tulsa Golden Hurricane