Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the WASHINGTON CAPITALS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. Florida has won four straight games to get back on track following a four-game losing streak and it now has a two-point lead over Toronto in the NHL Eastern Conference. The Panthers hit the road where all four of those losses occurred and home ice has been the difference in their games as the home team has won 11 in a row in their games. They did open the season 3-0 on the road and are now 3-2-1-2 so things have a taken a turn the wrong way and over the last six road games, Florida has averaged just 2.33 gpg in regulation. Washington has won three of it last four games and seven of its last nine to remain in a tie with Carolina atop the NHL Metropolitan Division while sitting in a tie for second place in the Eastern Division and a win here would propel the Capitals into a tie for first place. On offense, they have averaged 4.14 gpg in those seven wins but it has been the other side that has been the strength as they allowing a fourth best 2.35 gpg overall and that has been even better on home ice. The Washington defense has spurned its 6-1-3-0 record as home as it is allowing only 2.20 gpg which is sixth fewest in the league. The Capitals have allowed only three power play goals this season at home which is tied for fifth fewest and that is a good situation here as the Panthers have scored only three power play goals on the road and their .130 power play percentage is eighth lowest in the league. The Capitals are 4-1 in their last five games as a home favorite. Here, we play against road teams against the money line that are allowing 2.55 or fewer gpg on the season, after two straight wins by one goal. This situation is 28-8 (77.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (58) Washington Capitals

This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The Suns are coming off a win at Cleveland on Wednesday pushing their winning streak to 14 straight games and they still trail the Warriors by a game in the NBA Pacific Division. They improved to 7-1 on the road with the victory over the Cavaliers and while this streak is impressive, they have not exactly dominated, going 1-5 ATS over their last six games and with a pretty low number here, the public is riding Phoenix yet again. Phoenix has been one of the most surprising teams going back to last season while making a trip to the NBA Finals and this will be a tough spot as they have a game at Brooklyn tomorrow, the top team in the Eastern Conference. The Suns are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning straight up record. The Knicks defeated the Lakers last time out and while they have been somewhat inconsistent after a red hot start, a couple days off following the Los Angeles win is a benefit as they have following up their last five wins with losses. New York is 3.5 games out of first place in the conference and a win here would be big with a pair of road games upcoming against the Hawks and Nets. The Knicks are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning % above .600. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .750 or better where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive wins, a playing teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 63-30 ATS (67.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (540) New York Knicks

This is a play on the OREGON ST. BEAVERS for our CBB Game of the Week. If this line were posted at the beginning of the season, it would be flipped and the Beavers could be favored even more than that but early season records are altering the number. Oregon St. is off to a disappointing 1-4 start and it is not hard to forget that the Beavers were an Elite Eight team last season. They finished 20-13 so they were no juggernaut and because of that, they tend to be forgotten. The Beavers are expected to be better this season despite the loss of leading scorer Ethan Thompson as the backcourt of Jarod Lucas and Gianni Hunt has the potential to be one of the best in the conference and with Warith Alatishe down low, this is a solid team despite the early season struggles. They have failed to cover any game and are coming off a pair of one-point losses but with four days in-between games, this is a new start. The Beavers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Wake Forest is 5-0 and yet to leave its home floor until now. The five victories are one short of their season total from all of last season and turnaround is skewed for sure. The best teams they Demon Deacons have played is maybe William & Mary based on it was the lowest spread in all games and they have been favored by at least 15 points in all five games. Through yesterday, they have played the No. 358 ranked schedule in the country and putting this in perspective, there are 358 Division I teams. While the confidence might be there, the step up in competition is a bigger factor and Wake Forest will have it hand full for the first time this season. 10* (875) Oregon St. Beavers

This is a play on the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES for our CFB Friday Enforcer. There is a lot on the line for Cincinnati as a win for the Bearcats and a victory in the AAC Championship and they likely punch their ticket into the final four spots in the CFP. They are coming off an impressive win over SMU which pumped up the resume but they remain overpriced as they failed to cover their previous four games. While those spreads were all over three touchdowns, they all came against teams with losing records and while the number is less here, this is a dangerous spot. Overall, the Cincinnati schedule has been tame as it is ranked No. 94 in the country which is the lowest of any team ranked in the top 30 of the latest power rankings. The defense has been one of the best in the country but they face an offense that is playing at a high level. The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a road favorite. East Carolina comes in with a 7-4 record including 5-2 in the AAC and this is one of the biggest home games in a long time. The Pirates have won four straight games and prior to that, while they were just 3-3, the three losses were by 14 combined points and they were against South Carolina, UCF and Houston which are a combined 23-10. East Carolina has outgained seven straight opponents and that includes the games against Houston and UCF and both of those were on the road. East Carolina is 4-1 at home and while this will be the biggest test of the season, there is no pressure as the Pirates are locked into a bowl game for the first time since 2014. East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games when playing against a team with a winning record. Here, we play on home teams after three or more consecutive straight up wins going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive straight up wins. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (156) East Carolina Pirates

This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS for our CFB Friday Afternoon Dominator. We played against Texas last week as it has now lost six straight games after a 4-1 start and no bowl is in the future for the Longhorns. This is its longest losing streak since 1955 and that includes a loss against Kansas two weeks ago, which had not won a Big XII road game since 2008. The losing streak started against Oklahoma where the Longhorns blew a huge lead and they clearly have not recovered. There is no motivation for this team right now and while it is the last home game, with a 12:00 game, this place will not be overly energized. The defense has been atrocious as Texas has allowed 39.3 ppg during this losing skid and overall, the Longhorns are ranked No. 107 in total defense and No. 105 in scoring defense. The Longhorns have failed to cover any of the six games during this losing streak. Kansas St. had won four straight games with a potent offense that put up 31.3 ppg but managed only 10 points last week in a 20-10 home loss against Baylor. The Wildcats gained only 263 total yards which was their lowest since a game against Oklahoma St. back in September and the Cowboys own the No. 3 total defense in the nation. The offense has been up and down but should have success against the Longhorns and it is the other side of the ball that should flourish. Heading into the final game of the regular season, the Wildcats are No. 3 in the conference in scoring defense, No. 2 in rushing defense, No. 5 in passing defense, and No. 3 in total defense. The Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 35 or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. This situation is 60-28 ATS (68.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 9* (121) Kansas St. Wildcats

this is a play on the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for our CFB Friday Game of the Month. Arkansas is coming off a tough loss against Alabama as it fell by a touchdown and at 7-4 it will be looking for its most regular season wins since 2011. The Razorbacks have already matched their win total from the three previous years combined and will be playing their first bowl game since 2016. Three of the Razorbacks four losses have come against ranked teams (Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss) and the other came against Auburn, its only home loss of the season. Arkansas has a strong offense that is ranked No. 29 overall including No. 14 in rushing offense, averaging 222.7 ypg on the ground and it will be able to take advantage in this matchup. Arkansas is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The Tigers are coming off a one-point victory over Florida in overtime which got Missouri bowl eligible and it has now posted at least a .500 record in five straight years. They have won two straight games but both of those came at home and the Tigers are just 1-3 on the road with the only win on the highway being a 37-28 victory at Vanderbilt which enters this week with a 2-9 record. Despite the winning record, the Tigers are ranked next-to-last in the SEC in scoring defense; allowing 34.7 ppg which is only ahead of the Commodores. The biggest weakness for Missouri is the rushing defense that is dead last in the conference, which as mentioned, is the Arkansas strength on offense. The Tigers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on conference favorites of 10.5 to 21 points in the first half of the season that are averaging between 190 and 230 rushing ypg going up against teams allowing between 140 and 190 rushing ypg. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (132) Arkansas Razorbacks