Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BUCKS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. Milwaukee put a scare into the Celtics in the first round of the NBA playoffs last season as it took Boston to seven games and showed the future is bright for the Bucks. They fired Jason Kidd early in the season and used an interim coach for the rest of the season but they were able to sway Mike Budenholzer away from Atlanta and he should fit in well. With Giannis Antetokounmpo along with Khris Middleton, the Bucks had a solid two-man tandem and they were aided by Eric Bledsoe who assumed the starting point guard spot. Milwaukee brought in depth down low so it should improve upon its 44-38 record from last season and that first round loss will have them fueled early on. Charlotte failed to make the playoffs once again as it finished 10 games under .500 and it did not make a big splash in free agency so this is a team with a lot of questions still. The Hornets have numerous big money contracts that are tied to little production which did not allow them to go out and find someone to compliment Kemba Walker. Charlotte was average at home last season at 21-20 and this has not ben a good role as the Hornets have gone 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games as home underdogs including a 1-8 ATS record last season. 10* (703) Milwaukee Bucks

This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Boston reclaimed home field advantage with an 8-2 win on Tuesday behind a gem from Nathan Eovaldi. Now it is up to the Astros to take home field back and most importantly, avoid a 3-1 hole heading into Game Five on Thursday. The game was close through seven innings, but the Red Sox posted five runs in the eighth inning, breaking it open and seizing back the momentum with two straight wins. The Astros loss at home in Game Three was only their second in their past 12 playoff games at Minute Maid Park since the start of last season. The Astros are 7-0 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Charlie Morton has been the forgotten man in this deep Astros rotation but he has a chance to show what he is capable of tonight. He pitched in the regular-season finale against the Orioles and worked just three innings by design, capping an odd final month that saw him limited to 15 innings in four starts because of lingering right shoulder discomfort. This time of year, rest is your best friend and Morton has plenty of it. He is 9-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 16 home starts. Rick Porcello has made one start and two relief appearances and he has been solid, allowing just one run over 6.2 innings but he has struck out only three. He has pitched three times against the Astros this season, going 1-0 with a 4.15 ERA. Here, we play against road underdogs with a moneyline of +100 to +150 with a winning percentage of .620 or better after having won three of their last four games, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 173-88 (66.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (914) Houston Astros

This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. After finishing 14th in the Eastern Conference a year ago with just 71 points, the Canadiens are off to a surprising 3-1-1 start this season. They have won two straight games, the first time they have won consecutive games since March 2 of last season, snapping a six-game losing streak following a victory. The offense has been a big difference as Montreal ranked 29th in offense last season, averaging 2.52 gpg, but following their outburst against the Red Wings where they tallied seven goals, they are averaging 3.4 gpg and currently rank 13th. However, they did average 2.50 gpg in their first four games so we can not get too excited. St. Louis has dropped four of its first five games but two of those were in overtime and another by a single goal. The Blues have enjoyed ample firepower up front, with 15 goals in their five games but the defense has been a surprising letdown as their 4.00 GAA is fourth worst in the NHL. St. Louis received some good news Tuesday when forward Jaden Schwartz returned to practice after missing two games with a bruised foot and he is expected to join David Perron and Brayden Schenn on the top line tonight. Although the Blues have struggled to start the year, they still possess a solid core of veteran players who could turn the corner at any time and the feeling is that it happens tonight. Here, we play against home teams when the moneyline is -100 to -150 that are outscoring their opponents by 0.5 or more gpg, after playing a game where nine or more total goals were scored. This situation is 78-52 (60 percent) since 1996. 10* (53) St. Louis Blues