Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the MINNESOTA LYNX for our WNBA Tuesday Terminator. It has been a tough start to the season for the reigning WNBA Champions as Minnesota is off to a 4-6 start, but a turnaround is inevitable. The Lynx are coming off a win over New York on Saturday as they won by 14 points as seven-point favorites and are now looking to win consecutive games for the first time in nearly a month. The Lynx have not opened this badly since a 2-9 start in 2010, the first season in Minnesota for head coach Cheryl Reeve, Lindsay Whalen and Rebekkah Brunson, and the year before Maya Moore arrived. We won with Dallas in its last game as it was able to pull away and cover against Las Vegas to move back over .500 for the season. The Wings are just 2-3 on the road with one of those wins coming at 1-10 Indiana and this is a matchup they have struggled with as they have lost nine straight meetings against Minnesota. Dallas was able to cover the first meeting this season however, it was getting 13 points, so the line tonight has been cut in half. Minnesota falls into a great contrarian situation as we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having lost five or six of their last seven games going up against an opponent after having won three of their last four games. This situation is 33-7 ATS (82.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (606) Minnesota Lynx

This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Triple Play. The Tigers are riding a five-game winning streak heading into this two-game set in Cincinnati and they are just three games behind Cleveland in the American League Central. They have not been great on the road, but they have won four straight games on the highway and going back, the Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games following an off day. The Reds salvaged a game against Pittsburgh to close out a 3-2 roadtrip but they possess just 11 wins at home and while they are not favored by a huge amount, it is the third highest moneyline they have been favored by at home this season. They split the first two with the only win coming against Jason Vargas and his 7.39 ERA. Matthew Boyd is having a solid season with a 3.23 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 13 starts and while his numbers dip slightly on the road, four of six starts have come against teams .500 or better. He gets a good matchup here as Cincinnati is 17-40 in its last 57 games against left-handed starters. Sal Romano is coming off a rare quality start which came after a putrid five-game run where he posted a 10.72 ERA. He has not put up consecutive quality starts this season and in his other three games after a quality outing, he allowed 12 runs over 12 innings. The Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (925) Detroit Tigers

This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Triple Play. Texas took the opener of this series last night with a 6-3 victory to make it three straight wins following a seven-game losing streak. The Rangers are all but done in the American League West as they are 19 games out of first place and are favored again on the road in what is perceived as a significant pitching edge which is not the case. Texas is 8-25 in their last 33 American League road games that are averaging 3.9 or less rpg. Kansas City has been much worse as it is just 22-50 following its seventh straight loss. We are going with the contrarian side and backing Jason Hammel who has turned his season around. He had a 6.28 ERA through his first nine starts even though five of those were solid outings and in his last five games, he has put up a 2.56 ERA. He allowed no run on four hits in 5.1 innings in his first start against Texas this season. The Rangers turn to Cole Hamels who has put up decent numbers, but he has just three wins and the Rangers are 4-10 in his 14 starts. Going back, the Rangers are 1-7 in his last eight starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play on American League home teams with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season while hitting .225 or worse over their last 10 games. This situation is 277-209 (57 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (920) Kansas City Royals

This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Triple Play. If not for the surging Houston Astros, Seattle would still be in first place in the American League West as it has been on its own roll, winning 22 of its last 29 games. While they are getting done at home, the Mariners are also doing it on the road with a 21-12 record and they are 10-4 as a road underdog of +100 to +150. Additionally, they are 18-6 after a loss this season. New York is back home following a game and a half yesterday in Washington and despite being just 2.5 games better than Seattle, it is significantly overpriced here. The Mariners send Marco Gonzales to the hill and he has pitched really well after a slow start. He posted an 8.25 ERA in his first three starts but since then, he has a 2.55 ERA in his last 11 outings, allowing three runs or less nine times. The Yankees counter with Domingo German who opened his career with a six-inning, no-hit outing but he has struggled since then with a 5.89 ERA in his last six starts. The Mariners are 13-3 in their last 16 road games against right-handed starters. Here, we play against American League home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start. This situation is 31-12 (72.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (911) Seattle Mariners