Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

The Super Bowl hangover has not affected the Falcons which have won their first two games although they were fortunate to get out of Chicago with a win Week One. They looked great last week at home against the Packers but they were in such a good spot as it was their first home game since losing the Super Bowl and in a brand-new stadium on top of that. The energy was out of control but now they hit the road again as an overvalued team in a suspect role as a road favorite and coming off a Sunday night game against a non-divisional opponent causes a letdown. Clearly, this is a very good team but as pointed out many times over the years, great teams do not win every week and we must find the spots to figure that out. Detroit is also 2-0 following its Monday night win over the Giants. The Lions have been great defensively so far as they are allowing 289 ypg which is No. 7 in the league as they have shut down the Cardinals and Giants. We must decipher if this is a fluke or if the Lions are for real to prove their playoff appearance last season was not a fluke. Last season, Detroit had 26 sacks, tied for second-to-last in the league, forced only nine fumbles and made 10 interceptions, ranking in the bottom third in both categories and that is something that will turn around this season making the defense even stronger. The Lions showed balance on offense last week and they will need that here to control the clock and keep the Falcons offense off the field. Going back, the Lions are 10-3 over their last 13 home games and going back, they are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (478) Detroit Lions

Overreactions to the two weeks of the season happen every year and it is no different this season as we are seeing numerous undefeated teams favored on the road because the public loves to ride these supposed great teams. The situation is a little different here as Carolina is playing at home but there is a huge overreaction to what it has done so far. The Panthers are 2-0 with very unimpressive wins over San Francisco and Buffalo. Many will argue that they were in fact impressive considering they allowed just six points total but those came against two offenses that are still searching for answers so those results are a bit skewed. They now face a very potent offense and one that could give them fits which has been the case for years. Offensively, Carolina is challenged as Cam Newton is still not close to 100 percent and not the same player he was two years ago and now he must carry on without tight end Greg Olsen who is out for an extended period of time after breaking his foot last week. The Saints defense is under scrutiny again but they have had a couple tough spot as Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford tore them apart while Patriots quarterback Tom Brady did the same last week. New Orleans had an awful schedule break last week as it was coming off a short week and had to face New England which was coming off a long week after playing the previous Thursday and coming off a loss only made it worse. This is as close to must win as it gets. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game while the Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. 10* (473) New Orleans Saints

We played on the Bears in Week One in a fairly similar situation and we will back them again this week. Chicago nearly defeated Atlanta in that season opener but a dropped pass late in the game prevented a 1-0 start but it still managed the cover and now the Bears are catching a bigger number. They followed that tough game with a 22-point defeat at Tampa Bay last week as they missed out on several opportunities. Chicago was outgained by just one yard but a lot of its own yards came in garbage time and while that can be a red flag when looking at stats, the Bears got inside the redzone three times but managed just one touchdown. Now the Bears return home where they have been much more competitive, going 3-6 since the start of last season with four of those six losses coming by less than a touchdown. The Steelers are off to a 2-0 start but it is not a very impressive 2-0. They defeated the Browns by a field goal in their opener and caught a break last week when Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford was ruled out during warmups. Their defense has led the way as they have given up just 237 ypg which is third best in the NFL but the offense is a concern. While they have scored 47 points in two games, they are ranked No. 16 in total offense and they will be facing an underrated Bears front seven with nose tackle Eddie Goldman, defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd leading the way. They allowed 372 yards against Atlanta but 88 of those yards came on one play. Pittsburgh is not nearly as good on the road as it is at home and it is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games when favored by more than a touchdown. 10* (466) Chicago Bears

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our Sunday NFL Enforcer. The Chargers are up to their old tricks. We had a play on San Diego Week One and it resulted in a push for most as it had a field goal blocked as time expired which resulted in a three-point loss. They then lost to Miami last week as a field goal was missed in the final seconds that would have won the game. The Chargers won only five games last season but were decimated by injuries (355 man-games lost, most in the NFL) but nine of their 11 losses were by just one possession so going back to December of 2015, 14 of their last 16 losses have been within reach. While it is only Week Three, this is a must win for Los Angeles as it is already two games out of first place which is occupied all three other teams so being three games out after three games could be the end already. Kansas City is 2-0 and following its very impressive win over New England on opening night, the Chiefs followed up with a win against Philadelphia last week but it was a game they got away with. There were dropped passes, missed interceptions and other opportunities for the Eagles to pull out this win as they won the yardage battle by 62 total yards but lost on the scoreboards. This has been typical for the Chiefs which seems to get outgained two of every three games yet somehow manage to win two of those. Kansas City has won seven consecutive road games so putting them in the favorite role here was a must and even with that, the Chiefs are the biggest public consensus on the entire NFL card for the weekend. That makes this a take all the way. 10* (484) Los Angeles Chargers

This is a play on the BUFFALO BILLS for our NFL Game of the Week. Denver must be feeling pretty good about things following a last second victory over San Diego in its season opener and then the dismantling of the Cowboys last week. Now the Broncos go from the rare NFL situation of being home underdogs to road favorites and the spot could not be worse. After opening the season with two home games, Denver has to travel to the east coast for an early start and then heads back home next week to take on hated rival Oakland. The thought is that Denver has a significant home field advantage in December because of the bad weather but it has a bigger edge at home in September because of the altitude and opposing teams not fully conditioned early in the season. The Broncos have now gone 2-0 the last eight times they have opened the season with two straight home games. The Bills could not make it 2-0 as they went to Carolina last week and lost to the Panthers 9-3. The Panthers dominated the time of possession 38:53-21:07 despite running just 12 more plays so Buffalo never really had a chance to get anything going. While the offense struggles, the defense was solid which should carry over into this Sunday. They have notoriously struggled on the road with the offense and last season, Buffalo averaged 30.7 ppg at home compared to 19.1 ppg on the road. The Panthers defense held them in check and while the Broncos defense has been dominant, as said earlier, that was at home. The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game while Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games after a win by 14 or more points. 10* (470) Buffalo Bills