Brandon Lee Premium NBA Plays & Free Picks

40* (NBA) - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR (Kings +7.5) 

I cashed on the Kings as a short home dog in Wednesday's 125-121 win over the Blazers and I will gladly take a shot on Sacramento as a 7.5-point dog against a Lakers team that is still trying to figure things out. 

Betting public loves to bet LeBron and the Lakers, especially off a win and cover. Books know this and will inflate the numbers. We see this in the fact that LA is a mere 19-35 ATS last 2 seasons off a win. Lakers are also just 15-27 ATS last 42 as a home favorite. Give me the Kings +7.5! 

40* (CBB) - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER (Va Tech -2.5) 

I'll lay it with the Hokies as they take on Xavier in a matchup between two teams that lost their first games of the NIT Season Tip-Off special. It was just much different showings from these two teams. The Musketeers lost by double-digits to a very mediocre ISU team as a near double-digit favorite. Va Tech more than held their own in a 71-77 loss to a really good Memphis team. 

It really looked like the Cyclones defense got to Xavier, which is really bad news for them because Va Tech is a much better defensive team than ISU. I just think the number here is too low. Give me the Hokies -2.5! 

40* (CBB) - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT (Under 140) 

Based on the spread, the books are projecting a score here with a total of 140 in the lines of something like Memphis 76-64 and I just don't see it. I think as good as the Cyclones looked in their upset win over Xavier, they are going to have a miserable time trying to score against this Memphis defense.

The Tigers are No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency right now. They are No. 4 in 2pt% defense and No. 3 in block%. Iowa State simply doesn't have the shooting to get a lot of easy looks in this one. The key here is I think the Cyclones can hold their own defensively and make it tough on Memphis to get to 70 points. Give me the UNDER 140! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Pacers -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Pacers laying just 3.5-points at home against the Raptors. Toronto had a great comeback win on the road against Memphis on Wednesday, as they went from trailing 59-71 at the half to winning the game 126-113. 

It always takes a little more out of you playing from behind and I just don't trust this Raptors team to play well in this spot against what should be a hungry Pacers team that just lost in OT at home to Lakers. I really think Indiana is on the upswing right now and if it wasn't for LeBron going off, they would have beat LA. 

Even with that win at Memphis, the Raptors are just 3-7 SU and 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games and are in a bit of a flat/tired spot playing their 6th and final road game of a road trip that started with 4 games on the west coast. Give me the Pacers -3.5! 

FREE PICK: NC State Wolfpack -6
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 130

I will take my chances with NC State winning by at least a touchdown at home against rival North Carolina. I just don't think the Tar Heels are any good and if this team hadn't had just big preseason hype, they would be looked at in a completely different way. 

You could argue that the Tar Heels could be 4-7 instead of 6-5 given their two 3-point wins over Miami and Wake Forest. As good as Sam Howell might be, I don't see UNC keeping this game close. 

I just down think Howell and that offense can be as good offensively as they are going to need to be against this NC State defense. The Wolfpack have one of the best defenses in the country, especially on their home field. UNC's defense stinks. They are giving up 33.8 ppg, 429.8 ypg and 6.1 yards/play in ACC games. Wolfpack are giving up 21.1 ppg, 324.6 ypg and 4.8 yards/play. It's going to feel like the Tar Heels have to score every time they touch the ball. 

There's also different stakes involved here. UNC is playing for pride. NC State is still alive to win the Coastal and play in the ACC title game. Given Clemson's reign over the Coastal, getting to that game is huge for a team like the Wolfpack. It's not out of the question. They need to win and have Wake Forest lose at BC (Demon Deacons only -5). 

Best part is that this game is Friday and Wake plays on Saturday, which I think only adds more fuel to the fire. They can make Wake sleep on all that pressure of knowing they have to win their game. Give me the Wolfpack -6! 

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40* (NCAAF) No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER (Arkansas -14.5) 

I got no problem laying the 14.5-points with the Razorbacks at home against the Tigers on Friday. I think a lot of people might be hesitant to lay more than two touchdowns with Arkansas in this spot, as they will be concerned of a letdown for the Razorbacks after a hard fought loss to Alabama. 

I'm not saying that won't be the case, but I feel pretty confident in Arkansas not letting that loss to the Crimson Tide carry over to this game. Some senior days mean more than others and I think it's really big for this Razorbacks' senior class. These are the guys that really stuck with the program and saw it get back to respectability this year. 

I also think there's motivation here for Arkansas to snap a 5-game losing streak to Missouri and finish the season 3-0 in their 3 trophy games. 

If we get the kind of effort I'm expecting from the Razorbacks, they should have no problem winning this game by 20+ points. Don't be fooled by Missouri's win over a Florida team that quit on their head coach last week. This is a bad Tigers football team and one that figures to have a horrible time keeping Arkansas out of the end zone. 

Missouri is giving up 36.3, 446.9 ypg and 6.5 yards/play in SEC games this year. They are especially bad against the run, giving up 235 yards/game and 5.5 yards/carry. That plays right into the strength of this Razorbacks' offense, which is averaging 222 yards/game and 4.9 yards/carry on the ground. 

On the flip side of this, Arkansas has a pretty good run defense and with how Missouri's passing game has struggled in the 2nd half of the season, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Razorbacks -14.5! 

50* (CFB) - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -1) 

There's lines that stink and then there's this one. The betting public is going to think the bookmakers have lost their mind, making a 3-8 Nebraska team a favorite against an Iowa team that is 9-2 and ranked No. 16 in the country. Especially with the news that the Cornhuskers will be without starting quarterback Adrian Martinez. 

Anytime a line looks to be off this much, I instantly look to fade the obvious side, but I was going to be on Nebraska regardless in this one. 

No question this has not been the season that the Cornhuskers expected, but this has a team that has taken some really gut wrenching blows and continued to come out and play their hearts out. 

Given how much these two teams hate each other and the fact that Iowa has won 6 straight (last 3 decided by 6 or less), I see Nebraska treating this like it's their bowl game. 

I also love the matchup even without Martinez. This Iowa offense is one of the worst in the FBS and while it hasn't translated into a lot of wins, this Nebraska defense has played extremely well this year. I think they can do enough offensively with Logan Smothers, who is a talented freshman, to get the win at home. Give me Nebraska -1! 

40* (CFB) Black Friday ATS NO-BRAINER (UTEP +13.5) 

I not only think UTEP will cover the 13.5 in Friday's game at UAB, I think the Miners are a live dog in this one. This is an absolutely a horrible spot for UAB. The Blazers come off a crushing 31-34 loss on the road to undefeated UTSA. UAB gave up a 1-yard TD pass with 3 seconds on the clock to lose that game. It was a crazy play, as there was a bad snap and the pass was tipped before falling into the arms of Oscar Cardenas. 

Had UAB won that game, they would have pulled even with UTSA in the West Division of C-USA and simply would have needed to beat UTEP to play in the conference title game. With the loss they are no longer able to catch the Roadrunners for the division crown. 

Even with it being senior day for the Blazers, I think it's asking a lot for them to show up with the right mindset to beat a quality team like UTEP. It would be one thing if this was an up and coming team, but this will mark the first time in 4 years that UAB will not be involved in the C-USA title game. 

On the flip side, I know you could argue that UTEP is in the same boat with nothing really to play for, but I don't see it that way. The Miners are in the midst of one of their best seasons in quite some time. They are 7-4 with a 4-3 record in conference play. They have a shot to win 8 games for the first time since 2005 and their first winning record in C-USA play since 2014. 

This is a team that had gone just 5-39 over their previous 4 seasons. They had a win total for the season of just 3 and conference only win total of 1. 

Needless to say I think UTEP is going to have no problem getting up for this game. They don't care about the situation for UAB. All they see is a chance to end the regular-season with a huge road win against a team that has really been the class of this conference the last few years. Give me the Miners +13.5!