Stephen Nover’s Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

The Bruins have scored 17 goals in building up a 3-1 series lead on the Maple Leafs. I don't see the Maple Leafs slowing down the Bruins in Boston. The Bruins are averaging 4.8 goals during their last 10 home games.  Facing elimination, the Maple Leafs won't hesistate to pull their goalie if trailing by one or two goals late in the game. They did this in Game 4 with more than three minutes left.  Toronto is the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. The Maple Leafs have scored three or more goals in 14 of their last 19 games. They should play fast and loose. The Over is 14-3-1 the past 18 times the Maple Leafs have played an opponent with a winning mark.  

Bartolo Colon has a 1.45 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP and is holding opponents to a .177 batting average.  Scary to think what if the 44-year-old Colon was 20 years younger and weighed 100 fewer pounds? But he isn't and doesn't. Colon is due to get lit up and I see it happening here after Colon flirted with a perfect game in his last start this past Sunday retiring the first 21 Houston batters before walking a hitter in the eighth inning and then giving up a double.  Colon threw a season-high 96 pitches - a lot for this time of year - and I want to fade him after that magnificent performance.  The Rangers are one of the worse teams again this season. They have lost 20 of their last 27 home games and are 0-4 the past four times facing lefty starters. Seattle is going with southpaw James Paxton, who I rate as a "B" tier pitcher. The Mariners' lineup has been fortified with the return from injury of Nelson Cruz, Ben Gamel and Mike Zunimo 

The first two games of this series - both at Houston - have gone Under the total. There is a lot of zigging and zagging in the NBA playoffs not just with point spreads, but also with totals. This is the time for an Over to occur in this series. There is a law of averages and due factor that should kick in.  The Rockets, for instance, scored 102 points in Game 2 with James Harden limited to only 12 points. Houston has made barely 29 percent of its 3-point shots in the series when it averaged 36.2 percent from 3-point range during the regular season. This is enormous because the Rockets fire up more shots from beyond the arc than any team. The Timberwolves are shooting 38.8 percent from the floor in the series. They had the fourth-highest field goal percentage in the NBA during the regular season at 47.6 percent. Karl-Anthony Towns is having a horrible series shooting 5-of-18 from the field after finishing the regular season converting 54.5 percent of his field goals.  But it's not just the due factor and a natural correction being in order. The Timberwolves have played way too conservative. Now that they're home - making their first home playoff appearance since 2004 - they are going to play more up-tempo and fast. That's their best chance to beat the Rockets. Minnesota wins with offense not defense. Jimmy Butler is an outstanding two-way player. However, Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford are far more offensive-minded players. They are scorers first, not defenders. Huge crowd support should push the Timberwolves into a frantic pace. Minnesota catches a break, too, as the Rockets are without their best defensive player, injured Luc Mbah Moute.  I'm looking for the Rockets to score more points, too. They were the No. 2 scoring team in the league and averaged 122.7 points in their four regular-season meetings with the Timberwolves, who ranked 29th in defensive field goal percentage.