Stephen Nover’s Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

There hasn't been more than six goals scored in any of the first three games of this Stanley Cup series. Each game has gone Under the posted 6 1/2 total. So now the oddsmaker has dropped the Over/Under to 6.

At this number, I'm going to get involved with the Over.

The Panthers led the NHL in scoring at 4.1 goals per game. But they've been totally held in check by Tampa Bay's defense and its star goalie, Andrei Vasilevskiy. Down 3-0 in the series - and with nothing to lose at this impossible stage - I see the Panthers playing loose, taking chances and going all out to dent the Lightning's defense.

This could lead to multiple Tampa Bay goals if the Panthers should be trailing during the final few minutes of the third period.

The Lightning were the eighth-highest scoring team in the league averaging 3.5 goals. They are coming off a five-goal game.

The Aces are really dangerous now that they have an elite coach in Becky Hammon. So it's no surprise the Aces have the best record in the WNBA at 6-1 (5-2 ATS).

This is the Aces' final game of their homestand. They won't play again for five days before taking on the Sky in Chicago. The Sparks have always been a rivalry matchup for the Aces. So I see Las Vegas being up for this game.

The Sparks are inconsistent as they have been during the Derek Fisher coaching era. LA has lost four in a row going 1-3 ATS. The Sparks are 2-6 ATS following a loss.

I see a motivated Aces squad covering a double-digit spread at home here.

Anytime the Pirates are favored, I'm looking hard at the other side. The Rockies are the better team and have the better starting pitcher going in a matchup of Chad Kuhl versus JT Brubaker.

The Rockies are 19-21. They've been outscored by 28 runs. The Pirates are 16-24 with an MLB-worst minus 88 run differential. 

Kuhl has been Colorado's best starter with a 3-2 record and 3.86 ERA. He's been strong in every start except the two he made against the Giants. Kuhl has allowed just six earned runs in his five other starts when he hasn't faced the Giants. 

The Pirates are averaging a meager two runs during their last 10 games. They haven't produced more than four runs in a game during this span. 

Brubaker hasn't won since Aug. 24 of last season. He's 0-4 with a 5.50 ERA. 

The Phillies and Braves have been disappointing so far this season, each holding a 19-22 record. Atlanta has a losing home record. 

The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler against lefty Tucker Davidson. The Phillies have a winning mark versus southpaws and a huge starting pitching edge. So at this price I'm on Philadelphia. 

Wheeler is one of the better pitchers in the National League. He's in an excellent groove, too, with a 1-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He has a 23-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. 

Davidson has a 5.87 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings this season. Career-wise when pitching in Atlanta, Davidson has a 7.36 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. 

I don't see Boston losing a second straight game at home to Miami following its 109-103 loss to the Heat this past Saturday. A Celtics loss would not fit what has been established as a strong pattern. 

The Celtics are 5-0 SU and ATS following a loss with a winning margin of 19.6 points in those games. All of those victories have been by eight or more points. Jayson Tatum had a poor game against Miami on Saturday missing 11 of 14 shots from the floor and committing six turnovers. Tatum has a strong history of coming back strong, too, following an off-game. 

Miami lost a road game following a victory in both of its playoff series against the Hawks and 76ers. The Heat have not strung together two consecutive road victories in the postseason. Miami has lost by seven or more points in 10 of its last 11 defeats. 

Both teams are banged up. Obviously it's a huge bonus for the Celtics if Robert Williams can play and if Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowery P.J. Tucker and Tyler Herro can't go for Miami. But I'm anticipating the Heat will have all of their injured players on the court. It doesn't change my mind that Boston is the right side here.