Mr. East NBA Against the Spread Picks & Betting Tips

The Kansas City Chiefs are just 1 game away from defending their Super Bowl win from a year ago. The Buffalo Bills after losing 4 straight Super Bowls have a chance for redemption with a win. There is a very hidden stat in the Chiefs season log which may explain why they are still winning, but by scant margins. The Bills also have some hidden numbers, that show why their defense is vastly underrated. The Kansas City Chiefs through week 6 had the 4th ranked pass defense in the league. Since week 7 those numbers have substantially declined, and their ranking from that point on is 19th. The Bills defense ranked 30th through 6 weeks, but has ranked 6th since week 7. The Chiefs like to throw on 1st down, but th Bills rank #1 on first down pass defense, but #29 on first down running plays. It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs alter their game plan. The Bills also have an advantage when they line up in 10 personnel (4 wide receivers), where they average 7 yards per play. Their game against KC saw them run 33 plays out of 11 personnel that averaged just 2.8 yards per play. They ran 18 plays out of 11 personnel and gained 7.8 yards per play. Look for a heavy dose of 4 receiver sets for the Bills. Buffalo also played their week 6 game against KC without RG Jon Feliciano, and they will be better this time with him. KC ranks 31st defending running backs when they blitz, so look for Allen to get the ball out quickly in dump offs to the backs. Buffalo has been better with LB Matt Milano back, and I see some edges here for the Bills tht were liabilities in week 6. Overall, the Bills since week 7 have been the better team, and I look for them to get the win against the Chiefs. There is also a wait and see regarding Pat Mahomes toe. He may not be as willing or able to run, and may be less mobile in the pocket.  Make the play on Buffalo.

The Green Bay Packers made the LA Rams defense look bad on their way to the NFC Conference Championship Game. Looking at that game one would think Green Bay will roll all over the Tampa defense, but I don't think so. Tampa Bay presents a different set of problems for Green Bay. The Packers like to get Aaron Jones outside runs in space, but the Bucs have White and David, as the fastest linebacker tandem in th NFL, and I don't see success there. The Packers could utilize AJ Dillon to take it up the middle, and over-power the 2 linebackers who are rather small, with white at 237 and David just 233. Dillon is generating 3.2 yards after contact, but how much are they willing to use him, and how healthy is he, as he suffered a quad injury last game. It will come down to how much pressure can Tampa Bay get on Rodgers with just a 4 man rush? Rodgers has regressed tremendously as he has aged when a 4 man rush gets pressure, averaging a career low 3.3 yards per pass attempt. That is what happened in the first meeting, it is what happened vs Carolina. Rodgers was sacked 4 times in each game. Meanwhile Tom Brady will likely have plenty of time to throw. Green By is a bottom 10 team in getting pressure. The Packers have an answer in the secondary with Jaire Alexander who ranks in the top 10 defending #1 receivers. The issue is all the others who rank in the bottom 10 defending the rest of the receivers and running backs. The Rams did not have the offense to exploit than, the Bucs do. Tampa Bay has been snapping the ball a out more out of 12 personnel (2 tight ends). That is troubling for the run defense by the Packers who love playing dime defense, and in some cases 6 DB's. That highly exposes the Packers defense, and this is not a good match up for the Packer defense. That is more concerning with the fact that Kingsley Keke has been ruled out for Green Bay. It will all come down to how much pressure can Tampa Bay apply with a 4 man rush, and with David Bakhtiari out for the Packers, this may be the first defensive front that can make that hurt. I like Tampa Bay in this one.