Mr. East NBA Against the Spread Picks & Betting Tips

This game fits one of my strongest NFL total situations. This game applies to a total situation that is 68-16 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The New England Patriots took a blow when Mac Jones went down with a shoulder injury. I think back to last year when Bill Belichick took his team to Buffalo and played the game in high winds. His game plan was to run the ball on every down, and the Pats ended up throwing 3 passes in the game for an upset win in Buffalo. Maybe the strategy won't be as extreme here, but he knows he is facing a future HOF QB in Aaron Rodgers, and he is likely going to take the air out of the ball and run often. Green Bay is considered an offensive power with Rodgers but with no true go to guy the Packers offense has struggled to 16ppg. I see a defensive struggle in this one and will make the play under the total.

The Cleveland Browns have gotten strong QB play out of Jacoby Brissett. He is doing just enough for the Cleveland ground game to control games. Brissett has 4 TD passes to just 1 INT. The Atlanta offense has been equally good behind Marcus Mariota, but the similarities change from there. They are getting ripped on the ground and through the air. The net per play for the Falcons has been negative yards per play. Cleveland should be able to run the ball and keep the worst part of the Atlanta team, their defense, on the field. The Browns are in a highly favorable 207-138 ATS situation as well. Make the play on Cleveland.

Both Tennessee and Indianapolis saved their season last week. The Titans slipped past Las Vegas 24-22, while the Colts squeaked past Kansas City 20-17. They are both still in a must win situation as we head to week 4. Tennessee owns a win vs the only NFL team without a win and they have been out-gained by all 3 opponents on the season. Indianapolis is well positioned to slow the Titans running attack as they are allowing just 77 rushing yards per game. Recently the Titans have played well against the Colts but they remain 12-28 SU against Indianapolis in the last 40 meetings. Bigger than those numbers is a situation that is 77-34 ATS that favors the Colts in this one. Make the play on Indianapolis.

Buffalo heads to Baltimore today with redemption in mind. They lost to Miami last week 21-19 but the stats presented a different story. Buffalo may have lost but the stats show they out-gained Mimai 497-212. The perspective on that shows an NFL team that out-gains their opponent by 275 or more yards are 191-8 SU in the NFL. Buffalo remains the best team in the NFL so far, and I would expect they come out blazing in this one off a misleading loss. The Ravens own a loss to Miami also but the difference was they gave up 547 yards to the Dolphins. This isn't the Baltimore defense of recent years and the Buffalo defense has enough to slow the Ravens offense. I like Buffalo in this one.