Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Charlotte is coming off a 37-point win at home over Philadelphia and while the Hornets will be facing another short-handed team, coming off that win is not good as they are overvalued and have been awful in such situations. Charlotte has actually posted eight wins by 20 points or more and in the previous seven, they followed those up with losses in six of those games so momentum from the big wins has not been a thing. Memphis has dropped three straight games and will again be without Ja Morant and it is time to put a full game together as the Grizzlies have competed but not for the whole 48 minutes. They have had a double-digit lead in seven straight games but ended up losing five of those. Here, we play against road teams shooting between 45.5 and 47.5 percent and after three straight games shooting 50 percent or better going up against teams allowing between 45.5 and 47.5 percent shooting. This situation is 43-15 (74.1 percent). 10* (554) Memphis Grizzlies

This is a play on the ORLANDO MAGIC for our NBA Rivalry Rout. Orlando is coming off a pair of losses to Cleveland and the Magic have struggled since going abroad as they won in Berlin against Memphis but gave it back three nights later in London which started a losing streak that currently sits at four games. The defense has been atrocious as they have allowed 52.7 percent shooting or higher in all four games and we expect that to get better here against a poor shooting offense. They failed to cover any of those four games and remain on the road where there is value coming off a road loss as they are 10-1 outright off a road loss this season. Miami is coming off a 3-2 roadtrip after winning the final two games at Utah and Phoenix and will be the popular play here based on being home where they are 15-7. Here, we play against home teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .600 where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as a road underdog. This situation is 32-10 ATS (76.2 percent) since 2022. 10* (549) Orlando Magic

This is a play on the GEORGIA BULLDOGS for our CBB Star Attraction. Georgia is coming off a blowout loss at Texas on Saturday as it lost 81-67 which was its lowest output of the season and this is a good spot for a bounce back despite the opposing defense. This is a game of contrasting styles as the Bulldogs have the top offense in the conference while Tennessee has the best defense in the SEC and the matchup typically favors the home team. And the Volunteers defense is not that much more dominant as they are Ni. 20 in Effective Field Goal% while Georgia is No. 28.  The Bulldogs are back home where they are 11-1 with the loss coming against Mississippi by a bucket. Tennessee bounced back from a home loss to Kentucky with a big road win at Alabama which was its first road win of the season to go to 1-3 with the last two losses being blowouts. 10* (752) Georgia Bulldogs

This is a play on the PEPPERDINE WAVES for our CBB Late Powerhouse. Pepperdine is back home following a pair of losses on the road at Washington St. and Gonzaga to fall to 1-8 in the West Coast Conference which is the main reason the Waves come in as the home underdog. Overall, they are 1-8 on the road including 0-5 in the conference and while just 1-3 at home in the WCC, the three losses were against Gonzaga, St. Mary’s and San Francisco so the schedule has been brutal and the toughest in the conference thus far. One of those road losses was by 20 points at San Diego so there is revenge in play as well. The Toreros are coming off a loss against Santa Clara to fall to 3-6 in the conference and they are back on the road where they are 1-7 and while the lone victory was a big upset at UC San Diego, the Tritons are not the same team and it is a big city rivalry. 10* (726) Pepperdine Waves

This is a play on the VALPARAISO BEACONS for our CBB Contrarian Crusher. Belmont has claimed the top spot in the Missouri Valley Conference in the NET Rankings as it is now 18-3 overall including 8-2 in the conference following its fifth straight win at home over preseason favorite Illinois St. The Bruins are now tied with Murray St. for first place in the MVC and they have a game at home against the Racers on deck so this is the proverbial sandwich spot between two marquee home games and laying a short number on the road that will be gobbled up by the public. Valparaiso has won two straight games and after a 0-3 start in the conference, its recent 4-2 run has gotten the Beacons to one game under .500 at 4-5. One of the recent losses was at Belmont 15 days ago by four points so they easily covered and now have some confidence coming into the revenge rematch. 10* (706) Valparaiso Beacons

This is a play on the SETON HALL PIRATES for our Big East Game of the Month. This is the get right spot for Seton Hall or at least it has to be before this season goes spiraling out of control. The Pirates came into the season as one of the lowest ranked Big East Conference teams but it started off 14-2 that included a 4-1 record through the first five conference games but they have dropped four straight since then to fall under .500. Two of those losses were against Connecticut and St. John’s but the most recent came at DePaul by seven points as a road favorite and now back home, they look to snap a 1-3 home court run. Xavier has dropped two straight games to fall to 3-6 in the conference with the best win coming against Butler at home. The Musketeers are 1-4 on the road including a couple bad losses at DePaul and Marquette with the lone victory coming against Georgetown. 10* (698) Seton Hall Pirates

This is a play on the FORDHAM RAMS for our CBB Rivalry Rout. Fordham is back home following three of its last four games taking place on the road where the Rams are 1-4, the one win coming in this recent stretch over St. Bonaventure. They have dropped three straight since then including games at top-tier Davidson and No. 1 Atlantic Ten Conference team St. Louis while losing to Duquesne at home. They are now 7-5 at home which includes three straight losses, the other two coming against George Mason and Richmond, and now they have a great matchup to snap that skid. LaSalle is coming off a pair of upsets as it took out a highly disappointing St. Bonaventure as a home underdog and then had a major upset at home Saturday against Dayton. The Explorers are back on the road where they are 1-7 with the one win coming at Rhode Island. 10* (690) Fordham Rams

This is a play on the FLORIDA ST. SEMINOLES for our CBB Signature Enforcer. California is coming off a win at Stanford which was its first road win of the season after starting 0-3. The Golden Bears are now in a typical letdown spot as they have to travel to the southeast after that rival win which came after a big home upset over North Carolina. This came after a three-game losing streak and they sit 3-4 in the ACC to go along with a 15-5 record which has put them as the No. 8 team out of the early NCAA Tournament projections with a lot of that due to their 3-5 Quad 1 and Quad 2 record. Florida St. has been regressing since a 5-1 as the Seminoles are 3-11 over their last 14 games but they have continued to compete. They have dropped three straight games at home but that includes two losses against Duke and Wake Forest by a combined five points. 10* (668) Florida St. Seminoles