Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our CBB Supreme Annihilator. UAB is coming off a 10-point loss against Memphis at home as its home/road reverse splits continued as the road team is a perfect 10-0 in Blazers American Athletic Conference games this season and we are going against that here. They are 0-5 at home with all of those against the top five NET Ranked teams in the conference so they finally get a break now hosting the third lowest ranked team before hitting the road against top ranked Tulsa. Rice comes in a respectable 4-6 in the conference following a double overtime win over North Texas at home and while the other three wins were on the road, two were against the two teams ranked below them in the conference. East Carolina and UTSA, and the other by only two points against Wichita St. which was coming off a double overtime game. The Owls are 1-11 in games in the Quad 1 through Quad 3 sections. 10* (860) UAB Blazers

This is a play on the MARYLAND TERRAPINS for our CBB Early Ultimate Dog. It has been a rough season for Maryland and first year head coach Buzz Williams as it has not been close to even thinking about duplicating last season's 27-9 season from the Crab Five as once then head coach Kevin Willard left for Villanova, the entire team entered the transfer portal. The Terrapins are 8-14 overall after a 1-10 start in the Big Ten Conference with five of those conference losses against teams ranked in the top 15. Maryland is 0-10 in Quad 1 games this season but this is the easiest of the bunch as eight of those were against top 25 NET Ranked teams including five against the top 12, with the other two coming in the two west coast games. Minnesota snapped a seven-game losing streak with a huge home upset over Michigan St. on Wednesday and this sets up like its home upset over Iowa as it came out flat in the next game against USC. 10* (853) Maryland Terrapins

This is a play on the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS for our CBB Contrarian Crusher. South Florida lost to Temple last Saturday and bounced back with a not so impressive win over UTSA on Wednesday, one of the worst teams in the country, as the Bulls had one eye on this game. They are now 7-3 in the American Athletic Conference, which is good for a tie for second place, one game behind Tulsa. South Florida is 9-2 at home with the two losses coming by a combined four points and both coming in overtime. One of the road conference wins was at Tulsa by 15 points so while there is revenge in play, we do not subscribe often to road revenge in college hoops. That is one of only three losses on the season for the Golden Hurricane which have won seven games since then including a hard fought two-point win at Florida Atlantic on Wednesday. This is their first Quad 1 game of the season and the first Quad 2 home game for the Bulls. 10* (842) South Florida Bulls

This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Minnesota has lost two of its last three games following a four-game winning streak with the two losses as heavy favorites and after the four-point loss at home against the Pelicans, Rudy Gobert called out certain teammates for a lack of defensive effort. The Timberwolves are in sixth place in the Western Conference and just two games out of third place with the next three games all winnable at home heading into the All Star Break. The Clippers have split their two games since trading away James Harden and Ivica Zubac and the two big pieces in return, Darius Garland and Bennedict Mathurin, remain sidelined with the latter not making his debut until Tuesday. This is the get right spot for Minnesota. Bet against road teams off a road win against a division rival going up against an opponent after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points. This situation is 78-32 (70.9 percent) since 2022. 10* (568) Minnesota Timberwolves

This is a play on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS for our Super Bowl LX Side Winner. We have faded New England in all three playoff games and got burned twice but now it is time to back the Patriots in an overinflated line and over a key number. The underdog has been the way to go recently and it makes perfect sense as the public loves the favorites which is the case again this year with the Seahawks getting the majority of the early money. Since 2004, underdogs have gone 15-7 ATS including five straight covers and while the contrarian in us likes to fade a streak like that, not when it is a public one. Going back a little further and going number specific, underdogs of three points or more are 13-4 ATS since 2001-02. The matchup seems to be the reason the Seahawks are the public team and their defense is great but we are still not entirely sold on the offense facing a strong New England defense. This will be the fourth straight elite defense the Patriots will face and while they have not been able to put up the points, the defense did its work and with Josh McDaniels looking at what the Rams have been able to do, they should have a solid plan.  The weather factored into both sides for sure so the raw stats are somewhat skewed. The strength of schedule is another concern (guilty here) with the Patriots possessing the easiest in the NFL but they have taken care of business and that is what matters. According to PFR, the schedule was last at -4.5 and going back in Super Bowl history, teams with a strength of schedule at -4 or worse have actually gone 3-1. Here, we play on teams after allowing nine points or less in the last game going up against an opponent after playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. This situation is 51-24 (68 percent) since 2021. 10* (110) New England Patriots