Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the HOUSTON ROCKETS for our NBA Signature Enforcer. Houston had its three-game winning streak snapped with a 21-point home loss against Boston last night and now it is bounce back time with a great number to cover. The Rockets are still 17-5 at home and the spot is right. Houston is 4-0 ATS this season coming off those previous four home losses winning those games by an average of 18.3 ppg and they are in an exact same situation from last month when they were blown out at home against Oklahoma City and played at home the next night and won and covered against Minnesota. Charlotte is rolling along right now which is obviously playing into the number and that certainly helps. The Hornets have won seven straight games which includes two great wins over Philadelphia and San Antonio but those were at home and overall they are 12-15 on the road. Here, we play on home teams off a double digit loss as a favorite of six points or more, playing on back-to-back days. This situation is 48-16 (75 percent) since 1997. 10* (524) Houston Rockets

This is a play on the TARLETON ST. TEXANS for our CBB Thursday Ultimate Underdog. This is an inflated line due to the recent runs from both sides and it is Tarleton St. that has the value in a buy low spot. The Texans went 9-4 in the nonconference with the four losses all against major conference teams on the road and all ranked No. 62 or better and they opened up 2-1 in the Western Athletic Conference but have dropped six straight games. Four of those losses were by one or two possessions, one in overtime and another against top ranked Utah Valley. Adding to the value is their 0-6 ATS run. Cal Baptist has gone the other way as it opened 0-3 in the conference and has won six straight games but they all have not been impressive as the last two were in overtime and another was by only three points against worst ranked Southern Utah. 10* (841) Tarleton St. Texans

This is a play on the MONTANA ST. BOBCATS for our CBB Thursday Revenge Rout. Montana St. scuffled through the nonconference with a 6-7 record that did include some quality losses and then it was go time as the Bobcats opened up 7-1 in the Big Sky Conference with the only loss coming by three points on the road at Idaho which brings revenge into play. On top of that, they have lost two straight games both of which were on the road and now they are back home where they have been lights out, going 8-1 with the only loss coming against Denver by a bucket in the third game of the season. Idaho is coming off a win over Northern Arizona, snapping a two-game slide to get back over .500 in the conference and the Vandals are 5-6 on the road which is pretty respectable and helping keep this number down. 10* (822) Montana St. Bobcats

This is a play on the SAMFORD BULLDOGS for our CBB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. The Citadel is the pleasant surprise in the Southern Conference as the Bulldogs are 5-5 following a 0-3 start and they have improved to 8-15 overall. This record, while good for this team considering they had five wins overall last season, is completely skewed as those eight wins include three non-Division wins, three overtime wins at home with two by two points each and two over No. 360 VMI. Their two conference road losses against above average teams were by 38 and 29 points. It has not been a good year for Samford as it struggled in the nonconference with a 7-6 record and after a 2-1 start in the SoCon, the Bulldogs have lost five of their last seven games and while two were at home, they were by five points combined. Get right time again. 10* (802) Samford Bulldogs

This is a play on the MONMOUTH HAWKS for our CBB Thursday Letdown Fadeaway. Stony Brook is on a roll right now as it has won five straight games, all as underdogs outright, while covering six straight games with that sixth game also being an underdog, a four-point home loss catching 7.5 points against UNC Wilmington. The Seawolves are now 6-4 in the Coastal Athletic Association after a 1-4 start with that win coming against 2-8 North Carolina A&T by only one point and four of their six wins have come by 15 combined points and that includes a six-point double overtime win. This is the sell high spot. Monmouth is coming off a loss against Hofstra, the second highest NET Ranked team in the conference, to fall to 5-5 and this includes two decent road wins at Towson and at Campbell. It is a short number and that is the telling sign to take. 10* (771) Monmouth Hawks