Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the WASHINGTON WIZARDS for our NBA Ultimate Underdog. As banged up as it is, Portland is holding its own as it remains in the playoff hunt in the Western Conference. The Blazers had won 11 of 14 games but lost to Toronto at home by 12 points before hitting the road and then lost a tough one last night in Boston by eight points despite rallying from a 32-11 deficit after the first quarter. Now it is letdown time and a big move as they go from 8.5-point underdogs to 7.5-point favorites and while it is for obvious reasons, this is not the ideal spot despite being 5-0 in the second of back-to-back games. Washington has dropped nine straight games but has been competitive of late, cashing three of its last four after a 0-5 ATS run. Washington is 5-1 ATS, 3-0 ATS at home, against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .499. Here, we play on teams off a loss against a division rival going up against an opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This situation is 38-19 (66.7 percent) since 2022. 10* (530) Washington Wizards

This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our Big Ten Game of the Month. Purdue did not come through for us on Saturday as it lost at home against Illinois as the Illini could not miss from long range as they went 18-38 (47 percent) from long range, with freshman Keaton Wagler going 9-11 and scored 46 points on just 17 shot attempts. Purdue made only seven shots from behind the arc while making only nine free throws so it had no chance despite committing only three turnovers. The Boilermakers are now on a 0-5 ATS run and we will be on the take as this is a good bounce back spot. Indiana snapped a four-game losing streak with a blowout win over Rutgers on Friday night to improve to 12-0 in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games but now it tightens up against as the Hoosiers are back to a Quad 1 game where they are 0-6 and that includes a pair of home losses against Nebraska and Iowa and not in a good spot. 10* (645) Purdue Boilermakers

This is a play on the LOYOLA-CHICAGO RAMBLERS for our CBB Ultimate Underdog. St. Joseph’s has been playing well as it has won four of its last five after dropping four of its previous six games with the two wins being a non-Division I win and a victory over No. 358 Delaware St. The Hawks are coming off a home upset over Dayton which was easily its highest rated win of the season while the other three over this recent stretch were all in doubt late in the game as two were by a combined six points and the other in overtime. They are back on the road where they are 1-6, the only win coming at Richmond by a bucket and this is a big letdown spot. Loyola-Chicago is having a miserable season and needs to be played in spots and this is one of those. The Ramblers have lost seven straight after opening Atlantic Ten Conference action with a win over Rhode Island with all four home losses against higher ranked teams. 10* (644) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers 

This is a play on the DAYTON FLYERS for our CBB Bounceback Baller. Dayton is another team that came up small on Saturday as it went to St. Joseph’s and lost its second consecutive game on the road as a sizable favorite and now the Flyers head back home in a get right spot. They are 10-1 at home with the loss coming in a nonconference game right before Christmas against 17-3 Liberty by three points and that triggered a 5-0 run after that. Dayton is 5-2 in the Atlantic Ten Conference and with those recent losses, this is a huge game as the Flyers have a road game at 19-1 St. Louis on deck. Rhode Island has won two straight games after starting 1-4 in the conference and most recently it was a big upset over 18-1 George Mason at home. The Rams are back on the road where they have not been horrible at 3-2 with a pair of decent conference wins but that is only helping with the number in keeping it down. 10* (616) Dayton Flyers

This is a play on the RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS for our CBB Early Enforcer. Michigan St. is rolling right now as it has won six straight games, all by double digits, following a 43-point home win over Maryland on Saturday. The Spartans improved to 18-2 overall and 8-1 in the Big Ten Conference and are quietly becoming a sleeper National Championship team at +2500 and with the run, they are overvalued. This is the time to sell high as they could care less about this game in terms of running things up as they have Michigan on deck at home on Friday. Rutgers has lost three straight games to fall to 2-7 in the conference with three of the losses coming against Purdue, Michigan and Illinois, all in the top 10 in the NET Ranking, and all by massive margins but two of those were on the road and the one loss at home to the Boilermakers but the opener and none of those had an opposing situation as good as this. 10* (604) Rutgers Scarlet Knights