Matt Fargo’s NBA Handicapping Picks & ATS Predictions

This is a play on the SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SALUKIS for our MVC Game of the Month. Southern Illinois is back on the road following a win over Valparaiso for its first Missouri Valley Conference victory after opening 0-3 with three very tough losses. The Salukis are just 7-8 but are the sixth ranked team in the conference in the NET and the record could be a lot better. Of the eight losses, only one has been by more than eight points and that includes four road losses, two in overtime and the other two by seven points combined but because of the records, they are getting an inflated number. Belmont is the second ranked NET team in the conference but it is not that much of a difference to have this line. In their last game, the Bruins were favored by 3.5 points over Bradley which is just four spots higher than Southern Illinois in the overall NET. Belmont has a game at Northern Iowa on deck which puts it in a lookahead spot in this one. 10* (829) Southern Illinois Salukis

This is a play on the UTEP MINERS for our CBB Signature Enforcer. We go contrarian in this road spot for UTEP as this line opened at 7 and has steamed up to 9.5 and it is the typical overreaction for a bad road team against a home team on a huge ATS run. The Miners have opened 0-2 in C-USA with double-digit losses at Louisiana Tech and Missouri St. to fall to 0-5 on the road. The other three were not bad as one was against No. 29 Utah St. and the other two at Seattle and Hawaii, both rated much higher than Florida International, were by seven and five points respectively. Florida International is 1-1 in the conference after splitting with Liberty and New Mexico St. at home and the Panthers are now 8-2 at home, the other loss against James Madison. The fade is on here as the Panthers are on a 7-0 ATS run in their last seven lines games but the two records are somewhat skewed with a strength of schedule differential. 10* (823) UTEP Miners

This is a play on the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN for our CBB Contrarian Crusher. Tulsa is one of the biggest surprises of the mid majors as it is off to a 13-1 start with the lone loss coming at Kansas St. by one point. The Golden Hurricane opened American play with a resounding 49-point win against Rice to improve to 7-0 at home and while they are 2-1 on the road, both wins were by a single point and one of those was against No. 295 Oral Roberts. Now comes a test against a team that will be ready to go as North Texas is coming off a loss at Memphis to open 0-1 in the conference and it is just 2-3 in its last five games. The Mean Green return home where they are 7-0 and catching a decent sized number with this being their biggest test in Denton thus far. The loss of Will McLendon hurts but that was 10 games ago so there has been adjustment time and North Texas is 18-4 in its last 22 games when playing only its second game in a week. 10* (818) North Texas Mean Green

This is a play on the MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES for our CBB Ultimate Underdog. It has been a rough start for Marquette as it is 5-9 against a fairly difficult schedule ranked No. 63 in the country and even tougher for bettors as the Golden Eagles are 2-11-1 ATS including a 0-9-1 ATS run. This is a decent team on paper that is underperforming and the goal is to find the time where the results come in and now they are catching a number they should not be. We are not looking for the outright win, just a competitive game getting a huge number. The Huskies have won nine straight games since a loss to Arizona and while Marquette is in the buy low spot, Connecticut is in the sell high spot and it comes in just 2-5 ATS when laying more than 14 points. This is just the second game since December 21 and the Huskies are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games playing just their second game in eight or more days. 10* (797) Marquette Golden Eagles

This is a play on the TULANE GREEN WAVE for our CBB False Favorite Fade. This line opened at 2.5 and went to 4.5 almost immediately and not completely sure for the move as Tulane has no significant injuries while Devin Vanterpool, who is averaging 17 ppg, is questionable for Florida Atlantic. The Owls shook off a pair of losses at St. Mary’s and Central Florida with a 40-point home win over UTSA and have improved to 5-0 ATS in their last five games with that being the most logical reason for the move but that puts them in auto fade. They come in just 1-2 on the road. Tulane has won three straight games following a loss to UC San Diego in Las Vegas and the run includes a win at East Carolina to open American action where it was picked second and now the Green Wave are back home where they are 7-2 which includes a loss against No. 55 Akron. Tulane is 12-2 in its last 14 home games when playing only its second game in a week. 10* (786) Tulane Green Wave

This is a play on the RICHMOND SPIDERS for our CBB Afternoon Dominator. Fordham is off to a 9-5 start which may not be considered bad after winning just 12 total games all of last season but the record comes by playing the easiest schedule in the country. Of the Rams nine wins, three have come against non-Division I teams and five others against teams rated between No. 290 and No. 351. Two of their losses were at home against No. 352 NJIT and No. 323 Holy Cross so this is one of the weakest winning records in the country. Richmond opened the season 10-2 with the two losses away from home by a combined four points and the Spiders have since dropped their last two games, a bad loss against Charleston Southern at home and then a home loss against A very strong George Washington team. Fordham is on auto fade with its 4-0 ATS run and it is 4-13 its last 17 games after winning two of its last three. 10* (779) Richmond Spiders

This is a play on the PITTSBURGH STEELERS for our NFL Sunday Primetime Winner. Baltimore comes in as the road favorite and we have seen the number go up and down but it remains north of the key number of 3. The Ravens are laying because Lamar Jackson is playing and while this typically would be a huge edge, he has not been healthy for a long time and his performance is way down from last season. The Ravens lost the first meeting at home by five points as a 5.5-point favorite and we are not seeing a proper line adjustment in what is a heavily underdog dominated season. The underdog is 30-12-3 ATS since 2005 including 25-7-3 ATS during the regular season and head coach Mike Tomlin has led the Steelers to a 13-2 record when scoring 10 points or less in their previous game including a 2-0 record this season, the win in Baltimore being one of those after losing to Buffalo 26-7. Here. We play against road teams off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog going up against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite. This situation is 36-6 (85.7 percent) since 1983. 10* (350) Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Signature Enforcer. Neither team has anything to play for and it is Cleveland that played its most important game in the second half of the season, defeating Pittsburgh and spoiling the Steelers shot at clinching last week. The Browns are now back on the road and were in a mismatch to begin with but coming off that win spells letdown and the added road struggles make Cleveland a big fade. The Browns have been solid at home, or at least competitive against the number, as they are 16-10 ATS over the last three seasons but on the road over the same stretch they are 6-18 ATS. The Bengals have been prolific on offense since Joe Burrow came back from his injury with the exception of the 24-0 loss to Baltimore. The defense has improved as well as the Bengals were No. 32 in EPA through the first half but have shown positive adjustments. Here, we play against road teams averaging 5.5 or less passing ypa, after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) since 2016. 10* (352) Cincinnati Bengals

This is a play on the MINNESOTA VIKINGS for our NFL Supreme Annihilator. This is another game meaningless for both sides and namely the Packers as they are locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC and their goal is to get out of here unscathed. Green Bay is resting mostly every significant starter to stay healthy as the learned the tough lesson last season. The one downfall is that the Packers could enter the postseason with no momentum as they have already lost their last three games but entering the playoffs healthy is more important. Minnesota had a lost season as it went through a 1-6 stretch after opening 3-2 and playoff hopes were lost but the Vikings have responded with four straight wins and a victory here means a winning season and that is big going into the offseason. Over the past four weeks, the Vikings defense is No. 1 in EPA and now they get to square off against Clayton Tune. Here, we play on teams off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog going up against an opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 21-5 (80.8 percent) since 1983. 10* (336) Minnesota Vikings

This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our Divisional Game of the Year. New Orleans is closing in on a strong ending to the season as it has won four straight games heading into the season finale. The Saints are 6-10 following the winning streak but two of those wins were against the Buccaneers and Panthers, which have been as inconsistent as any teams in the league, and the Jets and Titans, two of the three worst teams in the league according to Sagarin. They now face a team that has also shown recent signs of consistency as the Falcons have won three straight games following a win over the Rams on Monday night. The best they can finish is 8-9 which would put them in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC South but tiebreakers have already eliminated them. Both teams would love to go out with decent winning streaks but we give the edge to the home team that is much healthier. Here, we play against underdogs after four or more consecutive wins against the spread, after the first month of the season. This situation is 57-22 (72.2 percent) since 1983. 10* (358) Atlanta Falcons