1 Unit FREE PLAY on Saints/Bears UNDER 44
The forecast in Chicago Sunday in calling for a temps in the 30s and winds exceeding 20 MPH as of this writing. And this will be the first time this season that the Saints will have to play an outdoor game as their first six games have all been in domes. The Bears are just a dead nuts UNDER team with a 5-2 UNDER record this season. The only two games that went over were in their two ferocious comeback wins on the road over the Lions and Falcons, which were both dome games. All four of their outdoor games have went UNDER plus their 10-24 loss to the Rams on Monday. The Bears have an elite defense and one of the worst offenses in the NFL, which is why they are built for UNDERS. The Saints could be missing their top two receivers in Thomas and Sanders this week, so things are going to be even tougher on Drew Brees. The Saints only give up 328 yards per game this season which is one of the best marks in the NFL. The UNDER is 20-8 in Bears last 28 home games. The UNDER is 19-7 in Bears last 26 games on grass. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Give me the UNDER.
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Dave’s Sunday Free Play:
1* on Chicago Bears +4
The Key: The Chicago Bears are 5-2 this season. And while I realize they aren’t as good as their record, I think this is the time to back them coming off their first blowout loss of the season. They lost 10-24 on the road to the Rams on Monday Night Football. The Bears blew 2 red zone opportunities and didn’t score a single point on either. They threw an INT in the end zone and also turned it over on downs. That was the difference in the game. I like their chances of bouncing back at home this week against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, and that has shown in their 1-4 ATS record in their last 5 games. They lost outright as favorites to both the Packers and Raiders, and they had narrow wins over the Lions by 6, Chargers by 3 and Panthers by 3. Drew Brees is a shell of his former self and may not have his 2 best receivers this week in Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. And the Saints are built for domes and not for outdoors. It’s worth noting that this will be their first outdoor game all season as they have played 4 home games and 2 road dome games against the Lions and Raiders. The Bears have the defense that can keep them in this game for 4 quarters, just as they did against the Bucs a few weeks back in their 20-19 upset home win. And helping them will be the forecast, which is calling for 38 degree temps and 22 MPH winds. Take Chicago.
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Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Los Angeles Chargers -3
The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now due to their 2-4 record. They could easily be 4-2 or better. Their four losses have all come by a single score to the Chiefs (20-23), Panthers (16-21), Bucs (31-38) and Saints (27-30). Those are four of the better teams in the NFL and they played all four to the wire.
Justin Herbert has thrown for at least 250 yards in each of his first five starters in the NFL and is quickly becoming the favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors. He is completing 67.4% of his passes for 1,542 yards with 12 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He leads a Chargers offense that is putting up 405.8 yards per game.
The Denver Broncos are 2-4 this season and every bit as poor as their record would indicate. Their laundry list of injuries just seems to get worse by the week. And they have two common opponents with the Chargers in the Chiefs and Bucs. They lost 10-28 at home to the Bucs and 16-43 at home to the Chiefs. So much for that Mile High air being a factor as they are 0-3 at home this season and losing by 15.7 points per game.
The Broncos average just 19.3 points per game offensively this season and are a mess on that side of the ball. Drew Lock just doesn’t take care of the football as the Broncos now have two or more turnovers in five consecutive games coming in. At some point that becomes a trend, and you just can’t trust them to hold onto the football. The Chargers are better on both sides of the ball in my opinion and it’s not even close on offense, so they should be more than 3-point favorites here.
The Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Los Angeles is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Chargers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games. The road team is 13-5-2 ATS in the last 20 meetings. The Chargers are 9-3-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Denver. Bet the Chargers Sunday.
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This is a generous number of points, given both teams' tendency to play close games. While Cincinnati has five losses, only one of those defeats came by more than five points. The Bengals also had a tie. Overall, they had one bad loss (at Baltimore) and one 8-point win (vs. Jacksonville). Their other five games were all decided by five or fewer points. The Titans, meanwhile, check in off a 3-point loss. Four of their six games have been decided by three points or less and five of their six games were decided by less than a touchdown. Not surprisingly, the Titans are 1-4 ATS as favorites, while the Bengals are 4-2 ATS as underdogs. The last meeting? A 4-point game. Consider grabbing the points.
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Yes, Under.I understand this is a game involving the Raiders, who have yet to go Under a total all season. I realize the Raiders' defense has been terrible the past two years under D-coordinator Paul Guenther and have given up the second-most points per game in the NFL this year. Nearly all of the Raiders' high draft picks on defense have yet to pan out. However. There are two other key elements besides a high total that point to this going Under - weather and Cleveland's offensive strategy and current makeup. The forecast is for light rain and heavy wind. It's the wind - projected to be in the 25-35 mph range - that rates heavily in my Under thinking. The Raiders have yet to play in a game where weather is a strong factor. These weather elements really hurt the Raiders, whose offensive line and running attack have struggled lately. Derek Carr has made up for this by shredding his game-manager label, averaging a career-best 8.2 yards per attempt. The Raiders' strength is speed at the flanks and improved performance from Carr. Cleveland ranks fifth in the league in run defense. Myles Garrett is the top pass rusher in the NFL. Denzel Ward is one of the better cornerbacks in football. Aside from those two, though, the Browns aren't very good defensively. The combination of gusting winds and the nearly unblockable Garrett, though, can really slow down the Raiders' attack. The Raiders will be spitting into the wind if they try throwing deep into the wind. The Browns have thrived on turnovers leading the NFL with 14 takeaways. Jon Gruden knows he can't let the opportunistic Browns beat his team this way. So I'm expecting a conservative game plan from him given the weather situation. Kevin Stefanski is run-oriented. His team just lost Odell Beckham Jr. for the season. Beckham wasn't putting up big numbers in Stefanski's style of offense. But he gave the Browns a deep-threat dimension they no longer possess. Beckham still had enough of a reputation to draw the other team's top cornerback plus extra safety attention on third down passing situations. Now that's gone. The Browns do not have any explosive receivers left. Cleveland is the better team. There's no reason to put banged-up Baker Mayfield in harm's way, or let him take chances. The Browns have a bye next week. They could be getting Nick Chubb back in Week 10. Just be basic and get this home win is what Stefanski wants, not style points or any kind of dueling downfield passing contest against Carr.
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