Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Oakland A’s -125
The Oakland A’s had yesterday off following their 2-1 victory over the Astros at home on Wednesday. They will be fresh and ready to go tonight. The Toronto Blue Jays finished up a four-game series in Minnesota yesterday and had to travel overnight to Oakland. They certainly will not be fresh.
I like what I’ve seen from Oakland starter Aaron Brooks this season. He has gone 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in three starts, and two of those were against Houston and Boston. His job gets much easier tonight against a Blue Jays lineup that is hitting just .217 and scoring 3.7 runs per game this season.
Marcus Stroman has pitched pretty well this season, but he still doesn’t have a win as he is 0-3, which can be attributed to Toronto’s poor offense. But Stroman has never beaten the A’s, going 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in four career starts against them.
Stroman is 1-12 in road games vs. AL teams that score 4.9 or more runs per game in his career. The A’s are 41-14 in their last 55 home games as a favorite of -110 or higher. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in Stroman’s last six starts. Oakland is 7-0 in the last seven meetings. Bet the A’s Friday.
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1* Free MLB Pick on Pittsburgh Pirates -107
Really like the value here with Pittsburgh at basically a pick'em at home against the Giants. Pirates were an afterthought in the NL Central with all the attention falling on the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers, but this is a team that exceeded expectations last year and is off to a strong 10-6 start to 2019.
The simple fact that Madison Bumgarner is starting for the Giants has SF overvalued. Bumgarner has given up 5 runs in 2 of his 4 starts and has allowed 4 homers in his last 19 innings of work. The better starter is going for the home team. Jordan Lyles has looked fantastic in his first two outings, giving up just 1 run on 6 hits with 12 strikeouts in 11 innings.
Giants are just 2-8 in Bumgarner's last 10 starts vs a NL team that is scoring 4 or less runs/game, while the Pirates are 16-1 in their last 17 vs a team that draws 3 or fewer walks/game and 12-2 in their last 14 vs a horrible power teams (avg. 0.75 or less HRs/game). Take Pittsburgh!
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10* FREE MLB PICK (Braves +141)
I'll take my chances here with Atlanta as a decently priced road dog against the Indians. Corey Kluber will be on the mound for Cleveland, which is why they are getting so much love from the books. However, Kluber has not pitched well at all in 2019. He's got a 6.16 ERA and 1.842 WHIP in 4 starts. Last time out he didn't even complete 3 innings at KC, as he was rocked for 6 runs on 6 hits and 5 walks.
The other key here is the Indians offense is still not producing and Atlanta starter Touki Toussaint was really impressive in relief, giving up 1 run (0 earned) on just 4 hits with 7 K's in 6 innings of work. Toussaint made 5 starts last year and was solid, never giving up more than 3 runs in a start. Give me the Braves +141!
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