1* Free Play on Padres +130
Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Padres/Dodgers UNDER 8.5
Two very talented, young starters square off in Game 4 of this series between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers. I expect the result to be a pitcher’s duel that stays UNDER this 8.5-run total tonight.
Chris Paddack is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.015 WHIP in four starts for the Padres this season. He went 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in 26 starts as a rookie for San Diego last year.
Julio Urias is 1-0 with a 2.40 ERA in three starts for the Dodgers this season. Urias has posted a 2.16 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego.
The Dodgers are 11-2 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. The UNDER is 5-1 in Padres last six games overall. The UNDER is 27-9-1 in Padres last 37 games as road underdogs. The UNDER is 39-14-5 in Dodgers last 58 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.
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Today's Free Pick - San Diego Padres +129
Time: 9:40 PM EST
Site (Opponent) : Away (Dodgers)
Starting Pitchers: Paddack (SD), Urias (LAD)
Most are going to see this as a cheap price to back the Dodgers at home. That tells me the books feel pretty good about San Diego winning this game. I definitely like the Padres at this price given who they got on the mound.
San Diego's Chris Paddack is a legit ace in this league. He was spectacular as a rookie last year and comes in with a strong 3.18 ERA and 1.015 WHIP over 4 starts. He's faced the Dodgers once already this season and while he wasn't great, he did hold them to just 3 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings.
As for the Dodgers, they will give it to Julio Urias. He's got an impressive 2.40 ERA over 3 starts, but two of those outings have been against a bad Giants team. His 1.267 WHIP is also nothing special.
Padres have put up some runs against left-handed starters. They are averaging 5.5 runs/game with a .347 OBP. If they come anywhere close to that mark they win this easy. Give me San Diego +129!
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