1* Free Sharp Play on Twins vs Guardians under 8 +105
The UNDER (8) is worth a look in Monday's MLB action between the Twins and Guardians. Hard to see these two teams going over this mark. Cleveland's Triston McKenzie and Minnesota's Sonny Gray will be facing off in this one. McKenzie has a 3.41 ERA in 12 starts and a 2.76 ERA in 3 home starts. Gray has a 2.53 ERA in 9 starts and is only slightly worse away from home with a 2.84 ERA in 3 road starts. Play the UNDER 8!
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our Monday Free Play. St. Louis lost its series with the Cubs over the weekend and might have starting pitcher Jack Flaherty las he just two innings before leaving with shoulder stiffness and that would be a big blow to the staff. The Cardinals have dropped three of their last four games and are now a game behind Milwaukee in the National League Central. They remain home where they are 22-15 and are hitting .254, fourth highest in the National League, while posting a 3.62 ERA, which is No. 7 in the league. Adam Wainwright is coming off a couple poor starts but those were on the road and he has a 2.68 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in six home outings. St. Louis is 15-4 when the money line is between -100 to -150 this season. Miami salvaged the series finale against the Mets on Sunday with a 3-2 victory and finished its homestand with a 4-2 record. The Marlins are five games under .500 overall and while solid at home, they have not been good on the road, going 14-22 and both sides are to blame. Miami is hitting only .288 away from home and the team ERA is 4.22 with the bullpen being the big problem, posting a 5.12 ERA. Pablo Lopez has been solid all around with a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP and that is keeping the number for St. Louis very manageable. Miami is 9-27 in its last 36 road games against the money line after allowing two runs or less over the last two seasons. Here, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season, after a game where the bullpen threw eight or more innings. This situation is 171-63 (73.1 percent) since 1997. Play (904) St. Louis Cardinals
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The Sox just saw all four of their games against Baltimore stay below the total. With Giolito on the mound, this evening's game against LA figures to be higher-scoring. Giolito's last five starts have all finished above the total. All five of them finished with more than 10 runs. In fact, the five games averaged more than 14 runs each. Over that 5-game span, Giolito served up nine HR's. Speaking of long balls, Syndergaard got taken deep twice in his last start. Consider the Over.
1* Free Play on Twins -125
Great come-from-behind road victory by the Dodgers against the Braves Sunday night. But that 11-inning victory could leave LA vulnerable for this matchup against the Rockies in Colorado.
The Rockies are far more competitive at home where they are .500 compared to a 12-23 road record. Colorado swept three games from the Padres during its previous home series.
Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson has been highly impressive this season, but he has shown signs of cooling off. His ERA is 4.41 during his past three starts.
The Rockies have the highest home batting average in baseball at .279. They also rank first in on base percentage at home and are second in slugging percentage at home. Clearly, the Rockies know how to take advantage of Coors Field.
That holds true, too, for Rockies starter Chad Kuhl. He's 4-5 with a 3.95 ERA. However, Kuhl has pitched better at Coors Field with a 2-2 record and 3.29 ERA there this season.
Monday's MLB Free Pick: Colorado Rockies +175
I'll take my chances with the Rockies as a +175 home dog against the Dodgers in Monday's series opener. This to me is just too good a price to pass up on Colorado. LA is coming off a big 3-game series against the Braves that ended with an extra innings affair last night. Could be tough for them to get up for this game.
Colorado is not a real threat and have lost 5 of their last 6. That stretch was all on the road. Rockies are a different team at home and you got to think they show up with a big effort against the Dodgers.
I also like who Colorado has on the mound. Chad Kuhl is just 4-5 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in 13 starts, but has posted a very strong 3.29 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in 5 home starts this year. Give me the Rockies +175!
Confidence Rating: 5 (Scale of 1-10)
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