Doc’s Sports NBA Picks & Against the Spread Plays

6-unit play. Take 308960 Villanova Wildcats +2.5 over Illinois State Redbirds (Saturday, Dec. 20th, 7:30 p.m. ESPN2)

We're taking Villanova at home, confident in their ability to leverage the home-court advantage and maintain their winning momentum. With strong recent performances and a dedicated fan base behind them, Villanova is poised to deliver another impressive outing. Their roster depth and disciplined approach make them a formidable opponent, especially on their own court, where they have consistently excelled this season.

Villanova enters the FCS semifinal as the underdog, supported by a 23-game home winning streak that highlights their physical, possession-focused style. Both teams rely on strong running games, but Villanova has demonstrated greater explosiveness late in the season, led by Ja'briel Mace, who has averaged 136.2 yards and nine touchdowns since becoming the starting running back. Illinois State features consistent production from Victor Dawson and recent contributions from Seth Glatz. Both defenses are strong against the run, with Villanova allowing 3.36 yards per carry and Illinois State allowing 3.67.

Quarterback performance is a key differentiator. Tommy Rittenhouse has produced 3,006 passing yards and 34 touchdowns, but his 11 interceptions present risks against a Villanova defense that has excelled in the postseason. Pat McQuaide provides more consistent control, with only three interceptions this year and a reliable connection with Luke Colella. Illinois State's leading receiver, All-American Daniel Sobkowicz, has performed well in the playoffs. However, Villanova's red-zone defense has allowed touchdowns on just 44.4 percent of postseason drives and has delivered crucial stops in consecutive wins.

Illinois State's 8-0 road record against FCS opponents is notable, but a fourth consecutive playoff game away from home in December presents a significant challenge against a Villanova team with a strong home advantage. Villanova's ability to protect the ball, apply defensive pressure, and rely on Mace to manage the clock positions them favorably in this matchup.

8 Unit Play. Take #661 Over 146.5 in Arkansas vs Houston (5:30p.m., Saturday, December 20 CBS) NONCONFERENCE COLLEGE BASKETBALL GAME OF THE YEAR Just feel both of these teams are solid on offense and this is a low total that is based on the history of Houston Basketball under Kelvin Sampson. I do not believe Houston will play a grind out defense against this Arkansas team that can score points in a variety of ways. Houston has not suffocated the better teams on their schedule thus far in 2025, giving up at least 72 points to Auburn, Syracuse, and Tennessee. Houston is also scoring points of late hitting 80 points or more in their last 3 games.

Arkansas is averaging 90 points per game this season, good for 21st in the country in points per game. They have scored at least 80 points in their last 7 games including putting 93 points on the board against Texas Tech last Saturday. This team wins game by outscoring their opponents and I see them reaching at least 75 points in this game. I believe Duke is a better defensive team than Houston and the total points in that game finished at 151. I see this game finishing around 155. The Cougars have gone over the posted total in 2 of their last 3 games. This is a very low total for the Razorbacks game and they have way over the posted number in their last two games. Finally, all 3 meetings between these two programs have gone over this posted number on Saturday.

4 Unit Play. Take #104 Chicago Bears over Green Bay Packers (8:20p.m., Saturday, December 20 FOX) I do not like going against the Packers especially in this rivalry, but injuries and overvalue make it a strong play on the Bears. Chicago is on an 8-1 straight-up and against the spread run in their last 9 games. Vegas still believe the Packers are the top team in the NFC North and one of the best in the NFC. I just do not see that occurring especially with Micah Parsons for them on defense to rush the passer. The Bears get turnovers and this is one of their biggest home game in years. I believe that they will be up to the task and pull out a victory on Saturday.

English Premier League Take Newcastle/Chelsea UNDER 2.5 (7:30 a.m. EST, Saturday Dec 20)

We were on the Chelsea UNDER last week for our free pick and despite a 2-0 halftime lead for Chelsea vs Everton, there were no goals in the second half and we cashed that ticket. We will strike again here as we think there is nice value getting the under at plus-money. Five of the last seven meetings, including the last two, where Newcastle was the home side have gone under 2.5. Chelsea have scored only a single goal in their last two EPL road tilts, including laying a goose egg last road match at Bournemouth. Despite notching two goals at home last week vs. Everton, something just seems off with this team recently and we don’t see them getting more than a goal here and another shut out is certainly a possibility. They have one goal total in the last four visits to Newcastle. Newcastle was shut out vs. Sunderland last time out, so suddenly they have lost offensive form as well. We think this will be a low scoring match and expect to cash this plus-money ticket.

4 Unit Play. Take #298 Texas A&M Aggies over Miami Hurricanes (12p.m., Saturday, December 20 ABC) These two teams met twice a couple of years ago with the home team winning both games. Miami has not been as good as their talent all season long and I see them struggling in this true road game. Texas A&M has a great year, they just could not beat Texas in the season finale. They lead the nation in sacks and have a dual threat quarterback on offense. Mario Crisobal is not a big game coach, and I feel his team got a little soft playing in the ACC this season. They lost two games to inferior competition and if they game is close I just believe Miami will find a way to lose it.