Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

10* Washington (3:05 ET): It's about time the home team won a game in this series, no? The Caps have the momentum now coming off B2B wins in Columbus, the last of which was a 4-1 beatdown that caused Blue Jackets' HC John Tortorella to curtly say "We laid an egg." That Game 4 victory was the first in the series NOT to go to overtime. Washington has outshot C-bus in all four games and also scored at least one time on the power play (in all 4 games) as well. So the arguement can be made that they've been the better team here. They were, of course, the better team in the regular season as well by finishing first in the Metropolitan Division. Given the Capitals' "playoff rep," I've been highly impressed w/ how they've bounced back in this series and I like them to take Game 5 back here in the Nation's Capital. 

Note that Washington has scored first in all four games of the series. They actually blew a two-goal lead in Game 1 while Columbus lost three players to injury. Game 2 saw the Caps post a massive 58-30 edge in shots on goal and go 3 for 7 on the PP, yet they again blew a 2-0 lead. Game 3 is when the "tide turned," however, as it took a lucky bounce of the puck in double overtime to finally get the Caps a win. In retrospect, that may end up as the play that saved their season. Game 4 was a far more "complete effort," as they limited the Blue Jackets to just 24 shots on goal and took advantage of numerous mistakes. One would now logically think they are poised to take control of this series. The Caps were top 10 in both goals scored and allowed at home in the regular season, so them dropping both games here so far in the series was highly irregular. Of course, so too is the road team winning the first four games of a series. 

Columbus was actually #2 in the league in goals allowed at home during the regular season, so the results of Games 3 and 4 have to be especially disappointing. All of a sudden, goalie Sergei Bobrovsky looked quite "mortal" and remember he did allow seven goals in the two games here earlier in the series. I'm not surprised that Washington has enjoyed the edge on special teams in this series either; C-bus ranked 25th on the power play and 26th in penalty killing during the regular season. Remember that this is a young team, so w/ all the OT games, they're likely taxed. Also, no team has been short-handed more often this postseason. 10* Washington 

8* Over Rockets/T'wolves (7:35 ET): Coming into this series, the expectation was for a lot of points, but that really hasn't come to fruition yet. The first two games have both stayed Under, the last one by a healthy margin as Houston routed Minnesota 102-82 to take a 2-0 series lead. Particularly frightening if you're a T'wolves fan is that Game 2 saw Rockets' star James Harden shoot only 2 for 18 from the floor (including 1 of 10 from three-point range) and still your team lost by 20. Granted, the series now shifts to the Twin Cities, but I'm not confident that will change much. What I am confident in though is that we're in store for a lot more scoring in Game 3. Take the Over. 

Houston was neck and neck w/ Golden State all year long for the most efficient offense in the game. They averaged 112.4 PPG as well, just a bucket less than the Dubs for the highest scoring average in the league. So its certainly rare to see them having been below that average for six consecutive games (all Unders) as well as seven of the last eight. In fact, the Under is now 9-1 Under in the Rockets' previous 10 games. Harden's poor shooting night certainly didn't help matters in Game 2, but he'll certainly be better tonight. As a team, the Rockets only shot 36.5% in Game 2 and they are a woeful 26 of 89 from three-point range in the series. There's no reason NOT to expect those numbers to go up considering Minnesota has never been stout defensively and came into the playoffs ranked 22nd in efficiency.

Now the T'wolves were also a top four team in offensive efficiency in the regular season. They averaged 109.5 PPG in the regular season. So their own offensive efforts in the first two games of this series are even more disappointing that Houston's. They're only 13 of 41 from three-point range, not that they're known as the most prolific three-point shooting team anyway. But they were just 38.7% overall from the floor in Game 2 after shooting 43.7% in Game 1. I think a return home (where they averaged 111.1 PPG in the regular season) is bound to do them some good. Following a double digit loss this season, Minnesota is 8-4 Over. Their three top players - Karl-Anthony Towns, Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins - all scored 13 pts or fewer in Game 2 w/ Towns making only two of nine field goal attempts. Expect a lot more production from that trio tonight. 8* Over Rockets/T'wolves

10* Portland (5:05 ET): Needless to say, the third-seeded Trail Blazers did NOT expect to find themselves in the current situation going into Game 4. That would be down 0-3 in the series and facing elimination. They've been thoroughly outclassed by the Pelicans w/ the margin of defeat growing greater every game. But, as a result of that, we've seen a massive swing in the pointspread from Game 1. After being six-point favorites for Games 1 & 2, the Blazers are now six-point DOGS here in Game 4. I came into this series thinking New Orleans was the undervalued team (cashed them as a 10* in Gm 1) and was proven right, but now things have shifted too far in the other direction. It's predictable, given what we have seen in the first three games, but I can't see Portland going down w/o a fight and this is too many points to lay for the Pelicans. Take the points. 

New Orleans thoroughly dominanted Game 3 here at home, taking a 64-45 advantage by halftime and never looking back. They are the highest seed (6th) to take a 3-0 series led in the NBA playoffs since '01, so yes, this is a surprise. Personally, I didn't buy Portland as the third best team in the West coming out of the regular season, but a case could also be made that the Pelicans weren't the sixth best team either. They do have a virtually identical net efficiency rating compared to Portland (which is why I thought they were the undervalued team in Gms 1 & 2), but now "the shoe is on the other foot." Also, the Pelicans' regular season point differential ranked 15th out of the 16 playoff teams and was just ninth in the West. 

There's all sorts of finger-pointing going on in the Pacific Northwest right now and for good reason. Head coach Terry Stotts may not survive if his team is swept here as his career playoff record is very bad (12-27 SU). Also, leading scorer Damian Lillard has REALLY struggled with the different defensive looks New Orleans has thrown at him in this series. He's averaging only 18.3 PPG in the series (down from almost 27.0 in the reg season) on 32.7% shooting, including 8 of 25 from three-point range. I have to believe he's going to play better here in Game 4. At the same time, I just can't see the Pelicans' Nikola Mirotic playing as well as he did (30 points) in Game 3. No team seeded sixth or lower has ever swept a series since the NBA did away w/ the best of five first round scenario some time ago. The Blazers are 6-2 ATS this season following a losing streak of three or more games. 10* Portland

10* Seattle (8:05 ET): I tried coming into 2018 w/ a slightly more optimistic view of the Rangers than most, but this simply looks like a bad baseball team that won't be winning many games. They dropped Friday's series opener w/ the division rival Mariners by a score of 6-2 and thus have fallen to 7-14 on the season, including just 2-9 here in Arlington. They've already been outscored by 36 runs, which isn't the worst margin in all of baseball, but it's not far off (Miami is the worst at -55). Though Bartolo Colon has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the club and will get the starting nod tonight, I'm not sure how confident we should be in him continuing the performances we've seen in his first two starts. Go with the Mariners in this one. 

Seattle will counter Colon w/ James Paxton, who is already making his fifth start of the season (where does the time go?). After a shaky first outing, Paxton has rebounded to allow 2 ER or fewer in each of his L3 starts w/ 24 strikeouts in 23 IP. Last time out, he outdueled Houston's Dallas Keuchel in a 2-1 win as he allowed only one run (on a solo HR) on just three hits in six innings of work. Tonight, he'll face a Texas lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. The Rangers are averaging only 3.3 rpg so far and have been held below that average in seven of the last nine games! They are also just 1-4 vs. left-handed starters this season.

In his last start, Colon became the oldest pitcher to take a no-hit bid into the eighth inning or later since Gaylord Perry in 1983. He was actually perfect through seven innings. But I would expect steep regression in this spot as he faces a Seattle lineup that pounded out 14 hits last night. Yes, it was a four-run ninth that was the difference for the M's last night, but if not for some strong defense by Texas, the game wouldn't have been as close. Something else worth tracking is that the road team has won seven straight head to head meetings in this AL West rivalry. 10* Seattle

8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Like many of the projected favorites to win their respective divisions, the Indians are scuffling right now. They're only 9-8, but I wouldn't worry yet as the American League Central looks very weak on paper in 2018 w/ only Minnesota likely to offer the Tribe anything closely resembling "competition." Furthermore, the Indians' pitching remains top-notch. They are currently top three in ERA, quality starts, WHIP and opposing batting average. Only Houston and Boston are allowing fewer runs per game. Therefore, this "slow start" is clearly "owed" to an offense, which ranks near the bottom of the league in most key categories. But after managing only one run last night here at Camden Yards, I'll call for them to get back on track this afternoon. 

Baltimore pitching has not been anywhere near as prolific as that of Cleveland as the O's have given up the third MOST runs per game in the league. Of course, starting pitching has never been a strength w/ this club, at least under Buck Showalter, who has managed to succeed here through a lot of "smoke and mirrors" and because of an excellent bullpen. But the bullpen hasn't been particularly great so far for the O's, due in large part to the fact they have been w/o closer Zach Britton the whole way. I do not expect the starting effort from Chris Tillman to be very good today either considering he's opened 2018 by going 0-3 w/ an 11.92 ERA and 2.824 WHIP. Those are some of the worst numbers in the sport, though it should be pointed out he's had to face three of the top teams in the AL (NYY, BOS, HOU), all on the road. While they did win last night, Baltimore had lost six in a row before that. 

Cleveland has had an interesting last seven days as there were numerous postponements last weekend for their scheduled series at home vs. Toronto. Then, it was off to Puerto Rico where they split a pair of games vs. Minnesota. They scored their lone run in the first inning last night, but it should be noted they were facing a good starter in Dylan Bundy. Tonight, they should get back on track against the struggling Tillman. They've gone 1 for 22 w/ RISP the L2 games, which is certainly due to turn around. Mike Clevinger gets the starting nod and had 14 K's in 16 2/3 IP so far. Consider the Orioles are averaging just 2.1 rpg while batting a collective .183 at Camden Yards this season. As a road favorite of -175 or higher, the Tribe has gone 16-7 the past three seasons. 8* Cleveland