Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): I think I've made my suspiscion of these Mariners well-known by this point. Their 46-27 record has largely been "built on the back" of a 23-10 mark in one-run games, which includes a perfect 6-0 in extra innings. As I've made clear through the years, a team's record in "close games" should be close to .500. If it skews heavily one way or the other, a team should consider itself either very fortunate or unfortunate. Something else I've made clear is that scoring differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. In this regard, Seattle fails to impress as well as they are only +17 in runs scored compared to their opponents this season. I wasn't the least bit surprised then to see them get outclassed by the Yankees last night (lost 7-2) as the AL East leaders have a run differential of +103 on the season. More of the same tonight as the Yanks reaffirm the oddsmakers stance on this matchup.

The Yankees hit four home runs last night; that was two more hits than Seattle had for the entire game! Furthermore, one of those two Mariners' hits leadoff the game as Dee Gordon doubled and later scored after two fielder's choices. From there, the next 19 Mariners were retired in order by Domingo German until a "meaningless" Nelson Cruz' HR in the seventh. It's another young starter going for NY tonight as Jonathan Loaisiga gets the baseball. Loaisiga made his big league debut on Friday and threw five shutout innings against the Rays. I suspect that the underdog might be popular here given the price and the pitching matchup, but that would be a mistake as the Yankees remain one of the best home teams in baseball w/ a 27-11 record. They are also one of only three teams averaging at least 5.5 rpg at home this season. 

Felix Hernandez toes the rubber for the Mariners. This won't be his "first rodeo" against the Yankees, in fact, he's 7-2 w/ a 2.00 ERA in 11 career starts against them. But this isn't also the same "King Felix" from the past. Hernandez is only 6-6 this season in 15 starts (8-7 TSR) w/ a 5.44 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Despite the team winning fairly regularly during the time period, they've lost four of Hernandez's last five starts and he's given up at least four runs in three of those four losses. He was good his last time out vs. Boston, but that game marked the very rare one-run defeat for the M's (at the hands of the Red Sox). Most disappointing of all for Hernandez is that - with the exception of Boston - he's generally faced some of the weaker teams in MLB and still has the subpar numbers. This will arguably be his most difficult start to date in '18 and it's one I don't think he nor the team is ready for. New York is 15-4 its last 19 games overall and is also 8-2 its L10 head to head meetings w/ Seattle. 8* NY Yankees

8* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): I was on the Reds last night and they wasted little time in "putting the boots" to Detroit, at one point leading by as much as 9-0 before eventually winning 9-5. It was a Joey Votto grand slam in the bottom of the third that got things going and it's worth noting that all five Tigers' runs came in the top of the ninth, when the game was already well out of reach. It's a quick turnaround for the two teams here on Wedneday and I think that spells "advantage home team" as the result should be quite similar. Even off a weekend sweep (of the lowly White Sox), I wasn't buying the Tigers on the road, not w/ a 13-21 YTD record there. Not like Cincinnati is a whole lot better, but they've actually won five of seven themselves. I'm on them again this afternoon! 

Sal Romano gave the Reds seven strong innings last night, allowing only four hits and no runs. Now they send arguably their top starter, Tyler Mahle, to the bump on Wednesday afternoon. The team has won all of Mahle's last four starts w/ him allowing zero runs in two of the last three (1.10 ERA in June). Last time out, he faced another American League lineup (in an AL park) and shut Kansas City out for six innings, allowing only three hits. Now that was the Royals, but here Mahle catches a break in that he's pitching in his own park where Detroit won't have the DH in its lineup. We talked about yday how the Tigers were already w/o Miguel Cabrera for the rest of the season. This is an offense averaging just 3.6 rpg on the road this season, which is bottom five in all of baseball. Mahle has allowed just 2 ER total in his last 16 1/3 IP and only 14 hits as well. 

While Mahle is his team's leader in net units earned, Detroit starter Michael Fulmer is last for his club in that department. Fulmer comes into Wednesday w/ a 5-9 TSR even though he's off B2B quality outings. Both times he went seven innings and allowed one run on five hits. But both of those starts came at home. In fact, it's been nearly a full month since Fulmer started on the road. He has a 4.22 ERA there for the season. As a team, the Tigers are just 19-39 their L58 road games (dates back to LY's horrendous campaign) and they're also just 1-6 vs. NL teams in 2018. Meanwhile, the Reds are a surprising 5-1 in IL play this season. 8* Cincinnati

8* Morocco +1 (8:00 AM ET): Please note that I'm using the Asian Handicap here where all we need is a draw. Morocco got the proverbial "raw deal" in its opening match, losing on an "own goal" (in the 95th minute!) to Iran, 1-0. I had the Under in that game, an easy winner. I did not have a play in Portugal's opener where they drew Iberian rival Spain, 3-3, as all three of their goals came off the foot of the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo. Prevailing wisdom here is that a mentally beaten Morocco will be no match for Ronaldo and company. But I contest that theory. What If Ronaldo isn't at the same level we saw him at against Spain? The Atlas Lions can certainly earn a draw here. 

Realistically, Morocco probably needs a win here to have any chance of advancing past the group stage. Therefore, look for them to be a lot more aggressive than they were against Iran. That said, this is still a team that "should have" played to a scoreless draw vs. Iran. Had they done so, they would have added to their already impressive total of recent "clean sheets." As I said in my analysis for the matchup w/ the Iranians, Morocco went unbeaten in CAF qualifying and didn't concede a single goal in six matches. That's really impressive. It should also be stated that while they lost to Iran, the Atlas Lions truly did outplay Team Melli. They had 13 shots on goal (to Iran's 8) and also had possession of the ball 63% of the time. 

The reigning Euro Champs would seem to have a clear path to advancing to the Round of 16. Beating Morocco and Iran would get them there and Selecao has lost just two competitive matches since the '14 World Cup. Both times Ronaldo was injured and did not play. However, it needs to be reiterated how this isn't the deepest of teams. Other than Ronaldo, who can score? No one did vs. Spain and they also conceded three goals. Considering the "stinginess" of the Moroccan side, Portugal won't be scoring as many times here as they did in the opener. Count on that. A goal from the Atlas Lions all but assures us this won't be a losing bet. 8* Morocco +1