Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

10* Under Astros/Twins (7:15 ET): I continue to believe it’s just a “matter of time” before the Astros overtake the A’s in the AL West. Just look at those respective run differentials as Houston has outscored opponents by 78 runs this season (#3 in MLB) while Oakland is only +7. But for now, the ‘Stros only need to concern themselves with Minnesota, a team that has been surprisingly poor in 2021 and currently occupies last place in the AL Central. Houston won the opener Friday by a score of 6-4. I look for tonight’s game to be lower-scoring. Take the Under.

Given manager Dusty Baker’s comments, you might be surprised that the Astros came out ahead Friday. "Everybody was walking around starry-eyed early in the game," Baker said. "You could see they were fatigued.” Baker was referring to the fact his team did not arrive in Minnesota until the early hours of Friday morning after suffering a 12-8 loss to Boston on Thursday. But they’ve now won five of seven and have a hot pitcher on the mound tonight. Luis Garcia is 3-0 his L3 starts with a 0.95 ERA and 0.737 WHIP. All three have also gone Under the total. 

Minnesota also has a starter going tonight that has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. Jose Berrios’ numbers aren’t quite as good as Garcia’s, but he actually has a 5-0 TSR going back to May 15th. Houston’s bats have been pretty hot the last week, but could cool off for the reasons Baker alluded to in the above comments. Twins’ games are also due for an overall decrease in scoring and I think we’ve got the right pitching matchup for it tonight. Garcia, like Berrios, also has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts and his ERA during that time is 1.86. He’s allowed just six runs in 29 IP. 10* Under Astros/Twins

8* Under Padres/Mets (4:10 ET): These teams have played each other five times this month. None of the games have seen more than eight total runs scored and there have been some excellent individual pitching efforts along the way. The incomparable Jacob deGrom turned in one of them last night. Before leaving due to some tendinitis (he’s believed to be fine), deGrom faced the minimum number of hitters through six innings, allowing just one hit in the process. The Mets won the game 3-2 as they continue to be a very good home team. They are 16-5 in 2021 at Citi Field where they are giving up just 1.9 rpg.

The fact we are not seeing many runs scored when these teams hook up should not be a surprise at all. I already mentioned how “stingy” the Mets have been here at home. Overall, they are allowing the second fewest number of runs per game in baseball. San Diego is #1 at 3.4 rpg allowed. There should be two more strong outings from tonight’s starters Joe Musgrove (Padres) and Marcus Stroman (Mets). Both pitched in the previous series between the teams and did well. Musgrove allowed just three runs in five innings (lost to deGrom) while Stroman allowed only an unearned run in 6 ⅔ innings of work. 

Despite losing to the Mets his last time out, Musgrove is having a great year. He threw the franchise’s no-hitter back on April 9th. There have been only two times when he allowed more than three runs this season and both were against the Giants. The Under easily hit when faced deGrom last weekend as the Mets won 4-0. Stroman is coming off four consecutive quality outings and has the 10th lowest ERA in the National League. The Padres have scored a grand total of four runs in their last three games. Should be another pitcher’s duel on Saturday. 8* Under Padres/Mets

10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): The Clippers are in an all-too familiar position here, that being down 0-2 in a best of seven series. The same thing happened in the first round against Dallas, although in that instance they lost the first two games at home. That series would become rather infamous for the road team capturing the first six games (1st time in NBA Playoff history). This one has been a bit more “traditional” with top seeded Utah winning the first two at home. The Clippers are now hoping it’s the home team that “rules the day” in Round 2 as the series shifts to Staples Center for the next two games. I’m laying the points in Game 3.

The last time the Clips played at home, it was the most important game of the season - Game 7 vs. Dallas. I took them and they delivered a 126-111 victory. Both games in Salt Lake City were close as they were decided by three and six points. Despite being down by 21 in the second half Thursday, Ty Lue’s team did come back and even took a brief lead in the 4Q. They also were up by double digits for most of the first half in Game 1. Though 0-2 ATS so far in this round, home teams down 0-2 in the series are typically sound bets. It would be foolish to write off the Clippers here.

Utah has won the first two games despite not having the services of Mike Conley. He’s questionable for tonight. On the road, Conley’s absence would loom larger. I seriously doubt the Jazz will shoot 55% again as they did in Game 2. They were also 20 of 39 (51.3%) from three-point range in Game 2. Again, the chances of replicating that kind of shooting on the road seem small. Donovan Mitchell HAS to cool off, right? I think it’s time for the Clippers to break out offensively in this one as their three-point shots will start to fall. 10* LA Clippers

10* Joanne Calderwood (8:40 ET): We’re dealing with a matchup of two top 10 flyweights here. Joanne Calderwood is 15-5 overall and 7-5 in UFC. Lauren Murphy has a similar record as she is 16-4 overall and 6-4 in the UFC. It is widely believed that the winner of this fight will go on to challenge champion Valentina Shevchenko in the future. So there’s a lot on the line in this one. I’m going with the favorite. 

Calderwood has knocked on the door of title contention before, only to suffer shocking losses two times. The first was against Maryna Moroz in 2015. After a shaky 2016, she’s rebounded by winning four of her last six fights. One of those two losses, last year’s submission at the hands of Jennifer Maia, proved critical however as she was again knocking on title contention. But then in January, she picked up a big win over Jessica Eye. When it comes to solidifying her status as the #1 contender, I think the third time is the charm. 

Murphy lost a couple close decisions early in her UFC career, but now comes in riding a four-fight win streak. It’s telling that she’s still the underdog. Like Calderwood, Murphy is a “bigger” flyweight, having moved down a class once this division was announced. While it may project as a fairly even matchup, Calderwood has the better resume and isn’t about to let another title opportunity slip away. 10* Joanne Calderwood

8* Over Collier/Felipe (6:10 ET): The very first fight on tonight’s UFC card is likely to go to the scorecards, or at least past the midway mark of the third round. Scheduled for three rounds in the Heavyweight Division, we’ve got Jake Collier (12-5 overall, 4-4 UFC) taking on Carlos Felipe (10-1, 2-1). The latter is the favorite. 

Collier has alternated losses and wins through his first eight UFC fights, never winning or losing two in a row. The bad news for him here is that he’s off a win (last December) over Gian Villante. That was by decision, which is the way three of his last four fights have ended. The exception was 1st round TKO loss to Tom Aspinall last July. That was his debut at heavyweight. Believe it or not, Collier started out as a Middleweight, so he’s moved up TWO weight classes to get here. The odds of him finishing someone like Felipe are very slim. 

Felipe lost his UFC debut last summer, but has since rebounded with B2B wins over Yorgan De Castro and Justin Tafa. All three UFC fights have gone to the scorecards. Felipe has a good chin, so that’s yet another reason to not expect him to be stopped tonight. At the same time, he doesn’t have much of a finishing game of his own. I think both fighters know their best path to victory is by impressing the judges. Expect this fight to go Over the total. 8* Over Collier/Felipe

6* Denmark (12:00 ET): The Danes come into Euro 2020 in pretty fine form. They are unbeaten with four wins in their last five competitions and like their chances to advance to the knockout stage of this event. However, Group B is not going to be easy with Belgium and Russia involved. That makes getting the full three points here against “odd team out” Finland imperative. Finland is the one side in Group B believed to have little to no shot of advancing to the knockout stage. I think Denmark starts with a big win here. 

Finland is a first timer in the European Championship, so there’s likely to be a “happy to be here” mindset. Furthermore, recent form has not been good as they are winless in their last six competitions. Four of those have been losses, including each of the last three. Those losses were to Estonia, Sweden and Switzerland and their last two times out on the pitch, they’ve been kept “clean” (scoreless). It’s just very difficult imagining Finland getting many, if any, points here in Euro 2020. 

Meanwhile, Denmark has conceded only one goal in its last five matches and that was in a 1-1 draw with Germany, which has to be viewed as a positive result. The most recent win was 2-0 over Bosnia in an International Friendly on Sunday. Going back further, they have lost just one time in their last 12 competitions. Again, all three points are must here for Denmark if they wish to make it out of the Group stage. 6* Denmark