Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

10* Over Suns/Knicks (7:05 ET): If you thought the Suns were going to “regress” after LY’s surprising run to the NBA Finals, perhaps it’s time to reassess. Phoenix is the hottest team in the league right now, having won 14 in a row. They are 15-3 overall. The only team with a better record right now is Golden State, who is 16-2 SU. The Suns have won six in a row on the road, however the last two away games - a 115-111 win over San Antonio and 120-115 win over Cleveland - were both close against subpar opposition. That should give the Knicks some semblance of hope heading into tonight’s contest.

New York is off what it should consider a big win as they beat the Lakers 106-100 on Tuesday. Although LeBron James did not play for LA in that one, the Knicks will gladly take the win after they had lost four of their previous six games. But what I’m choosing to focus on here is the fact the last eight Knicks games have all stayed Under the total. That’s quite the streak. But it can’t last forever and I’d be really surprised if we don’t start to see Knicks’ games get a bit higher scoring. The L5 have seen them average only 101.0 PPG. That’s down from 107.2 for the season. They are allowing just 99.2 points the L5 games, down from 106.4 for the season. 

Phoenix can definitely score. They come in averaging 112.3 points per game (tied for #2 in the league) and their L4 games have all gone Over the total. The Suns have shot better than 50% in each of those last four games. So they really are the ideal opponent for this Knicks’ Under streak to come to an end. Both times these teams met last season, the end result was an Over. There were 228 and 233 total points scored in those two games.  The Over is 5-0 the previous five times the Knicks have been a home dog. 10* Over Suns/Knicks

8* Portland (10:05 ET): Going to take a chance with the Blazers here as they are catching a decent number. Now it’s against Golden State, who is 16-2 SU and looking like the best team in the league. It’s also a road game for Portland, and they’ve struggled in those, going 1-8 both straight up and against the spread. But prior to losing by just four points in Sacramento, this team had won four in a row, albeit all at home. I think taking the points is the right move here as Portland is one of the few teams capable of matching the Warriors at the offensive end. (Blazers are #4 in offensive efficiency). 

Golden State’s two losses this year have been by a total of seven points and one of them was in overtime. So, yeah, I’d say it’s been a really impressive start. They have - by far and away - the league’s top point differential as they are beating opponents by an average of 13.5 PPG. They’ve won five straight, four of those coming by double digits. But this figures to be their toughest test since facing Brooklyn. It comes after a holiday and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dubs come out a bit “sluggish” in this one. They were down 19 in the 2Q Wednesday against Philadelphia, who was short-handed and playing its sixth straight road game. 

If they are to get an advantage, I don’t think the Blazers will let the Warriors “off the hook” the same way the Sixers did. I know it’s been a struggle on the road. Portland’s lone win away from home so far was against Houston. But the team played well in Sacramento. Damian Lillard had 32 points and 10 assists while Jusuf Nurkic contributed a season-high 28 points and 17 rebounds. You know the underdog is going to come in highly motivated for this one and Golden State isn’t going to win every game. Portland has averaged 117.6 points in its L5 games, so they can easily stay within the number here. 8* Portland

10* Penn State (7:00 ET): LSU has shot up the power rankings, thanks to an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS start where they are outscoring the opposition by 34.4 points per game. To put things in perspective, that’s a wider average margin of victory than #1 Gonzaga. But the Tigers have also yet to play anybody from a “power conference.” They’ve faced LA Monroe, Texas State, Liberty, McNeese State and Belmont so far. Of those five teams, only Belmont would rank in the top 150 nationally. So don’t be surprised to see the Tigers tested on Friday. I look for this to be their first ATS loss of the young season. Take the points. 

Penn State is 3-1, but at the opposite end of the spectrum (from LSU) when it comes to the point spread as their ATS record is 0-4. Early in the season, the Nittany Lions suffered a rather shocking 81-56 defeat at the hands of UMass, which obviously has affected their own power rating. But since that loss (where they were four-point road favorites), PSU has won B2B games, beating both St. Francis NY and Cornell by double digits. Now those aren’t exactly the most impressive of opponents either, but the Nittany Lions did tie a program-record with 15 made three-pointers against Cornell on Monday. 

This game is being played in Florida as part of a Holiday Tournament. It’s the first time Penn State is an underdog this season. Obviously, I’m not shocked by that. But with the Nittany Lions at 0-4 ATS and LSU at 5-0 ATS, I believe we’re getting a solid value on the dog here. PSU has three double digit scorers, two of which (Lundy and Sessoms) combined to make 11 of those 15 threes in the last game. With LSU yet to play a “real opponent” and this also being their first game away from Baton Rouge, it will be interesting to see how they respond to what figures to be a close game. 10* Penn State

10* Colorado (4:00 ET): So #19 Utah is off its biggest win of the season, a 38-7 beatdown of Oregon that assured the Utes a place in next week’s Pac 12 Championship Game. There is a decent shot that game could be a rematch with the Ducks. But first comes this minor piece of business, the regular season finale where they are huge favorites over Colorado. The Buffaloes have nothing to play for here, but that didn’t stop them last week from upsetting Washington 20-17 as a 6.5-point dog. It would be foolish to expect a similar result here, but the Buffs should keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think. 

Last week was actually the second upset in three weeks by Colorado. Earlier, also in Boulder, they beat Oregon State 37-34 as an 11.5-point dog. That’s a pretty impressive win, quite frankly. Now the road has been less kind with CU yet to win a single time away from home this season. But catching Utah the week after its biggest win of the season is a favorable situation. The Buffaloes may have been outgained badly last week by Washington, but finding a way to win when you’re 2 of 13 on third down is pretty impressive. I expect the offense to be more efficient on third down here. 

This is just a classic letdown spot, plain and simple. I know Utah has been rolling, but my power ratings say this spread should be below three touchdowns. So there’s value with the road dog, particularly because they’ll at least be motivated to keep it close against a rival they’ve lost to four years in a row, the last three losses all coming by 17 points or greater. At the very worst, look for the “back door” to be open Friday night in Salt Lake City where the Utes can’t possibly match their intensity from last week. 10* Colorado 

8* Over Boise St/San Diego St (12:00 ET): Both of these teams are trying to nail down a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. It is highly unlikely that they’ll see each other again in a rematch next week. Boise State is in a three-way tie for the Mountain Division lead and the other two teams (Air Force & Utah State) are decided favorites this week. A loss for San Diego State potentially drops them into a tie with Fresno State, who plays Thursday and holds the head to head tiebreaker. So unless Fresno State gets upset Thursday, both Boise & SDSU have a lot on the line Friday. 

Note the VERY early start time for this game. Kickoff will be at 9 AM PT. That was done for TV purposes. It will be interesting to see if the early kickoff has any adverse effect on the players. I think the two defenses may not be as sharp as they usually are. If so, look for this game to fly past the total. Boise State comes in averaging 30.4 PPG on the year. San Diego State averages 30.5 PPG at home. Something that I should point out here is just how lucky the Aztecs have been this season. They are 5-0 SU in one-score games. They may be rated #21 by CFP committee, but my power ratings have them MUCH lower. 

Boise State has gone Under in six straight games. That, and the fact they are playing San Diego State, is why this O/U line is so low. But remember what I said earlier about the two offenses. Boise has averaged 32 PPG during its current four-game win streak. But three of the four teams they beat up on aren’t very strong offensively. San Diego State put up 28 points last week in a win over UNLV. This is the lowest O/U line of the season for any Boise State game. Again, I think the respective defenses are “caught napping” after Thanksgiving and this turns into a surprisingly high-scoring game. 8* Over Boise St/San Diego St

8* Nebraska (1:30 ET): What a trying season it’s been in Lincoln for Scott Frost’s Cornhuskers. Did you know - that despite a 1-7 SU conference record - Nebraska actually has a positive point differential in Big 10 games? How is that even possible, you ask? Well, on October 2nd, they beat Northwestern 56-7. The Cornhuskers’ seven losses in Big 10 play this year have been by a total of 42 points, none of them exceeding a nine-point margin. That is insane and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like it before. I think speaks volumes that Nebraska is favored here, even if it’s ever so slightly, against a team that at one point was ranked as high as #2 in the country.

Iowa has since slipped to 16th after suffering B2B bad losses to Purdue and Wisconsin last month. Those losses were by a combined 37 points, almost equal to the margin of Nebraska’s seven conference defeats. The Hawkeyes have since righted the ship with three straight wins, but two were by just five points (against N’western and Minnesota) and even last week Kirk Ferentz’s team was outgained (312-255) in a win over Illinois. The Hawkeyes were really lucky during their 6-0 SU start to the season as they forced a lot of turnovers. (Note they were -6 in TO’s in the two games they lost). 

Nebraska has not beaten Iowa since 2014 with the last three losses - predictably - all coming by six points or less. Frost has been absolutely “snake-bit” in close games during his tenure here with the Cornhuskers going 5-19 SU when the final score is decided by seven points or less. I think it’s time for him to win one. I know that the Cornhuskers have nothing to play for here (except pride!) and QB Martinez will miss the game. But Iowa’s offense is BAD and has been outgained in five consecutive games! Frost deserves this one. 8* Nebraska

7* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): It’s been a bit of a frustrating stretch for Athletic Club (Bilbao) as they are winless in the last four La Liga matches, three of those being draws. But they are still eighth in the table mind you, with 19 points, leaving them seven behind the top four. Interestingly enough, the Lions are pretty close to those top teams in terms of xPts and no team has been unluckier in terms of actual vs. expected goals scored. Having conceded the fewest number of times in all of La Liga (only 8 goals allowed), Athletic probably SHOULD be higher in the table. I think Friday’s fixture offers them an excellent opportunity to grab the full three points and move up. 

Athletic has lost only once in its last seven times out on the pitch and just twice all season. Only the top four sides in the table, all of whom have lost just once, have suffered fewer defeats this season in La Liga. The issue for Athletic is that they are tied for the most draws in the league with 7. I had the Under in their most recent fixture, a goalless draw with Levante. There’s been just one time all season - a loss to Rayo Vallecano back on Sept 21 - that Athletic has conceded more than one goal. And that 2-1 loss saw them give up the game-winner in stoppage time. 

Again, the metrics say Athletic SHOULD be scoring more. I think they break through here against Granada, a side near the bottom of the table that actually ranks dead last in xPts. Being that Granada has one of the worst defensive records in La Liga (20 goals allowed), things really line up for Athletic to score multiple goals on Friday. If that happens, it’s an easy win, given their reputation for conceding so few goals. Granada is coming off a 4-1 loss to Real Madrid and a 2-0 loss to Espanyol before that and I think this is a team that will struggle to avoid relegation. 7* Athletic Bilbao