Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

8* Seattle (10:00 ET): Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer has found great success this time of year. Not only did his Vikings win LW, 17-10 at Buffalo, but they swept all four preseason games LY as well. He now carries a 12-2 SU/ATS record in preseason affairs into tonight's date w/ Seattle, but may have met his match in Seahawks HC Pete Carroll, who is now 19-9 ATS in the preseason after his team destroyed the Chargers LW, 48-17. Tonight is the Seahawks home debut, which always carries at least a little extra motivation and last week's performance - even w/ the backups in - showed me that Carroll's team isn't messing around. Lay the points.

Thanks in large part to the backups, the Seahawks rolled to a 48-17 win last week w/ a 458-322 edge in total yards. They also forced four turnovers. The backups being able to score so much is certainly encouraging. While the overall depth here might not be what it was in the team's Super Bowl season, Seattle remains one of the "teams to beat" in the NFC coming into 2017 and they certainly are in the position Minnesota wishes it was. I was encouraged by what I saw from Seahawks backup QB Trevone Boykin, who threw for 189 yards. We're likely to see more of RB Eddie Lacy tonight as Thomas Rawls suffered a "minor" ankle injury last week. Chris Carson has also looked good in training camp. 

Minnesota may have won last week, but did so despite being outgained by 67 yards. They managed just a field goal in the 1st half, a far cry from the 34 points Seattle put on the board in the 1H against the Chargers. To me, this Vikings team will continue to remain "average at best" as long as Sam Bradford remains the QB. I think replacing Adrian Peterson w/ rookie Dalvin Cook will end up as a net positive, but still the team barely gained 3.0 YPC last week against Buffalo. Finishing w/ only 152 yds passing isn't very impressive either, especially considering the majority of it came w/ third stringer Case Keenum in the game. I expect the Vikings offense to struggle again here and Zimmer to suffer a rare preseason defeat. 8* Seattle

10* Under Calgary/B.C. (10:30 ET): Two of the CFL's top three teams collide tonight in Western Canada with the 5-3 Lions hosting the 5-1-1 Stampeders. Both teams are chasing first place Edmonton, who just lost for the first time last night (at Winnipeg). That loss actually put the Bombers into second place, so whomever loses here will really be "up against it" in a Western Division that seems more loaded than ever. You may be surprised to find the Stamps favored on the road here, but they actually own the league's best point differential and are off a bye. But even though they've scored 101 pts the past two games, I have zero interest in laying this number of points on the road. Therefore, we turn to the total. Let's go Under. 

Calgary is #1 in the league in points per game (36.3), but has scored 31 pts or fewer in four of seven games. Their scoring average is greatly aided by the 60-1 rout of Hamilton that took place three weeks ago. They are also #1 in points allowed as three times they've given up 10 points or fewer. I expect the Stamps' defensive line, led by Charleston Hughes (six sacks already) to dominate this game. Last week saw B.C.'s offensive line get owned by a Saskatchewan front that isn't anywhere close to as talented as what they'll see today.

The Leos are looking to rebound from a dismal showing last week where they were blown out 41-8 by the Rough Riders. Obviously, we should expect them to score more this week, but HC Wally Bueno seems to have a decision to make at QB w/ both Jonathan Joseph and Travis Lulay struggling. There were six turnovers last week and like I said earlier, the defense they'll face here is much stingier. But I think a big key here is the fact that the Leos are a perfect 3-0 Under this season when the total is 55 pts or higher. Also, the Under is 5-1 the past six meetings here in B.C.. Make it six out of seven after tonight. 10* Under Calgary/B.C.

10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Certainly, it has not been a good stretch of baseball for the Rays, who find themselves rapidly sinking in the wide open chase for that second Wild Card in the American League. They held the coveted position at the All-Star Break, but have gone just 13-20 since then and have lost six of their last seven. After a four-game stay in Toronto (went 1-3), tonight they return home to face similarly slumping Seattle and will have revenge on their mind for a three-game sweep that took place at Safeco Field back in early June. Before beating Baltimore each of the L2 days, the Mariners had lost five in a row themselves and while this is a .500 team (61-61), they've actually been outscored by a slightly wider margin this year than have the Rays. The road has been particularly unkind to tonight's starter Erasmo Ramirez.

In the interest of full disclosure, I was on the Rays Thurs afternoon. They were tied w/ Toronto 3-3 in the bottom of the eighth, which is when they allowed a two-run HR to Justin Smoak. It was a very disappointing loss in the sense that they actually outhit the Jays (11-6), but ended up stranding 14 runners on base. I did mention how offense (or rather lack of it!) has been a concern for this club of late as the last 13 games have seen them score only 23 runs while being shutout FIVE different times! That's obviously not good, but hope could be on the horizon in the form of the pitcher they face this evening. As mentioned above, Erasmo Ramirez has really struggled on the road this year as he's winless in five starts to go along w/ a 10.35 ERA and 1.950 WHIP. 

Not only did Tampa Bay lose close yday, but before that their previous three losses had all come by one-run margins. So they're "due" for some good fortune to go their way, at least in my estimation. Masked by the poor offensive performance is the fact that their bullpen has been outstanding this month, in particular Steve Cishek, who ironically came to the team from Seattle in a trade that included Ramirez! While Ramirez will be motivated here, his road struggles are too pronounced to overcome. TB counters w/ Austin Pruitt, who has a 1.96 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in his L3 starts. Take away one bad showing at Yankee Stadium on 7.28 and Pruitt has allowed only four runs in 20 IP this year. He's had to go up against some brutal competition recently, namely Dallas Keuchel, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber (all former Cy Young winners!), so dueling w/ Ramirez should be a "walk in the park" for him. I have to believe that the Rays hitting is bound to improve, specifically their horrid .105 mark w/ RISP (8 for 76) those L23 games. As you may now, a team's batting average when RISP will always tend to float back towards the mean. 10* Tampa Bay

8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Two playoff hopefuls will meet at Coors Field this weekend and while Milwaukee comes in having won four straight (and is the more "desperate" team), I give the edge to Colorado. As always, the Rockies are leading MLB in runs scored in home games and as a result they've gone 37-23 here. The Brew Crew started its week by sweeping Pittsburgh in a short two-game set at home before having yday off. But let us not be quick to forget that at this time last week, they were mired in a long losing streak, one that would reach six games before B2B wins over the lowly Reds. They got to play their last seven games at home - all against sub-.500 foes - and I think they'll find the Rockies to be pretty rude hosts this weekend; certainly tonight. 

The Rockies did play yday and got embarrassed (here at home), losing to Atlanta 10-4. But that came a day after a 17-2 win, remember. While their record is sub-par after allowing 10+ runs this year, I nevertheless see this as a big bounce back spot. Yes, I'm aware that Nolan Arenado seemed to reinjure his hand yday (X-rays turned out to be negative), but I just don't think you can keep an offense which averages 6.2 rpg at home down for long. Certainly not w/ Matt Garza on the mound. Milwaukee's starter for Friday has a 7.54 ERA and 1.814 WHIP his L3 starts and his career numbers here in Coors Field are certainly an even bigger concern. Garza has started three times here, lost every time, and his ERA is 8.82. His recent ground ball/fly ball and KW rates are certainly a reason for concern coming into tonight's game. 

Colorado will counter w/ German Marquez, who is certainly more comfortable pitching in this environment. In fact, he has a 7-2 TSR at home and a 1.278 WHIP. He's coming off his worst start of the second half, but I fully anticipate him bouncing back as prior to allowing five runs in Miami last week, Marquez had delivered SIX consecutive quality outings! These teams have not met since the 1st series of the year when Colorado took three of four at Miller Park. That set the tone for this surprising season from the Rockies, who are still #2 in net units (behind the Dodgers obviously) and fighting to host the NL Wild Card game come October. Milwaukee is actually third in net units, but they are also just 6-10 when riding a win streak of 3+ games. 8* Colorado

8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Pirates +1.5. The Bucs really let me down last night by blowing a 5-1 lead and losing 11-7. The blame - pretty clearly - lies at the feet of the bullpen for that one, specifically Joaquin Benoit, who has really struggled here since coming over from Philadelphia via trade. Note that Pittsburgh had the same # of hits as the Cards did yday (15), but did themselves no favors leaving the bases loaded in the sixth and then two RISP in the seventh. Perhaps predictably, the ML has "flipped" for tonight's game as the home team now finds itself as the underdog after drawing some serious action for yday's series opener. I'll take advantage of that by going w/ the RL as I see the Bucs doing no worse than a one-run loss here.

Remember that St. Louis came into this series as losers of three straight. They'll have Carlos Martinez on the hill tonight and while he does rank in the Top 10 in ERA, strikeouts and opposing batting average among all NL starters, note that the team has gone only 12-12 in his 24 starts. Though he's off B2B quality outings, those came against Kansas City and Atlanta, two light-hitting teams. Martinez is also particularly susceptible to 1st inning meltdowns as he's allowed 18 ER in the first frame this season. He's faced Pittsburgh once this year, and while he pitched well (allowed just 2 ER in 7 IP), the team lost - by a single run. The Cardinals have played 41 one-run games this year, 2nd most overall, so that's yet another reason to gravitate towards the RL tonight.

Pittsburgh has now lost five in a row and finds themselves four games back of the Cards plus 5.5 back of the first place Cubs. They had gotten back to .500 before this losing streak began. But after a seven-game road trip, they're back home now and that should suit Friday starter Trevor Williams well as he's posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.064 WHIP here at PNC Park. His last time pitching here, he allowed just a single hit in seven innings of shutout ball. Another thing to like about Williams is that he is not very prone to giving up home runs. He's allowed just two in his previous 11 starts. Williams was actually the one who beat Martinez back on 7.16, allowing only two runs. He's never lost to the Cardinals in four all-time appearances, posting a solid 3.50 ERA. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5)