Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

10* Columbus (7:05 ET): I don't see the Blue Jackets having much trouble at all with the Ducks tonight on home ice. I say that knowing full well that Anaheim has taken six of its last seven games, including B2B six-goal efforts. But this is a team that has succeeded on the back of its goaltending, which has performed at an unsustainable level. The Ducks had the best 5 on 5 save percentage in the league entering the week, but one of their netminders (Ryan Miller) is now out at least six weeks w/ a MCL sprain. Joining Miller on the injured list are center Rickard Rakell and defensemen Cam Fowler. This is a most inopportune time for the injury bug to hit as the Ducks are set to embark on their longest road trip of the year. My guess is we'll start to see them regress.

Columbus is in a decent position after the first two months of the season.  They are 2nd in the Metro, although a lot of hockey is still to be played. They're in the middle of a six-game homestand and need to start racking up more wins. The homestand started w/ a pair of losses, one of them to lowly Vancouver. But the Jackets bounced back Thursday w/ a convincing 4-1 win over the Kings. Tonight is also a revenge game as they lost out in Anaheim, 3-2, last month. Offensively, this is a deep team (12 players w/ at least 10 points), so it's no surprise they're 7th in the league in goals per game.

But this play is more about fading Anaheim, who has been extremely lucky this season. When it comes to having the lead, the Ducks are near the bottom of the league in total time. They are 6-8-2 this year when down after two periods, which is the second most such wins. They added another Wednesday as they stormed back to beat Dallas 6-3. The team's last road trip (through the Southeast) went very well as they won four times as a ML dog of +160 or higher. But if you look at the way they continue to be priced, the oddsmakers are making it clear that they are NOT a believer. Nor am I. 10* Columbus

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Houston may have some again believing that a turnaround is forthcoming and Memphis is the second night of a back to back. But I feel the Grizzlies are still an outstanding value tonight as a home dog. Last night's 100-97 loss to Miami aside, the Grizz have been one of the league's top defensive teams this year. They've held 25 of 28 opponents below their season average in scoring and are second overall in points allowed. The Rockets aren't the same explosive team on offense that they were a season ago. Therefore, I'll take the points here.

Memphis found itself slightly behind for most of the way last night against Miami. They simply did not shoot the ball very well, especially from three-point range where they were only 8 of 29. However, I suspect a nice bounce-back takes place tonight. The Grizzlies have shockingly been held under 100 pts in six of their last seven games, which you don't really see in this league anymore. But they shoot the ball well at home (46.5 FG%) where they are 9-5 SU and ATS. Houston is just 9-12 ATS as a favorite (10 outright losses) and 5-10 ATS on the road. They've lost six of their last seven road games straight up, even though James Harden has gone for 33 or more points four times in that stretch. 

Although these teams are division foes, it's been more than a year since they actually  faced off. Memphis earned a season split LY, taking the first two matchups, which was before they fell apart (due to injuries) and Houston really took off. I mentioned earlier that Houston is not the same team offensively this year and they're down to 106.6 PPG on the road. If Memphis can hold them below their season average, which history suggests that they will, then I sense a very easy cover here. The Rockets have still allowed more points than they've scored this year, making them  one of just five teams in the Western Conference that can say that. 10* Memphis 

8* NC State (2:00 ET): Every week, when the new NCAAB rankings come out, I like to compare them to my own personal top 25. There's not as much discrepancy as you might think, but there's a always at least a couple teams not ranked by the pollsters that I think deserve to be. One such team is North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have started 8-1 this year, the only loss coming at Wisconsin (by just 4 pts) in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Other than that, the competition hasn't exactly been fierce, but it's worth noting that NC State is outscoring teams by 26.9 PPG this year!

This is a neutral site game w/ Penn State, another Big 10 team. The Wolfpack are obviously hoping for a better result than what they got in Madison. They should. Last year in Raleigh, they beat the Nittany Lions 85-78 as a three-point home dog. Both teams are better this season. Penn State is actually top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency right now (per KenPom), but really struggles shooting the ball sometimes. Not in the last game, mind you, when Rasir Bolton's career-high 27 pts led a 76-65 win over Colgate. The team shot 10 of 27 from three-point range as well. But the issue is that the Nittany Lions have shot just 40.7% from the field outside of Happy Valley this year, including a dreadful 29.5% from three-point range.

NC State is 6th in the country in scoring and 14th in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they're not too shabby either, ranking 21st in points allowed. Again, I recognize they haven't taken on the toughest non-conference schedule, but that doesn't change the fact that this is a very good basketball team. They've scored 180 pts the L2 games and are 7-2 ATS overall. The only two times they failed to cover were as big favorites. The Wolfpack shoot the ball very well; better than 50% overall and better than 40% from three-point range. That's too much for Penn State to keep up with, so lay the short number. 8* NC State

10* Denver (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Saturday night matchup was Denver laying six points. So last week's respective results certainly had a significant impact on the oddsmakers. Cleveland beat Carolina, 26-20, at home while Denver went out and lost to lowly San Francisco, 20-14 as three-point chalk. The oddsmakers are now saying these teams are basically even, giving Denver the token number for homefield advantage. But I still believe that a gap does exist between these two teams. Lest we forget that the Broncos had won and covered three straight before taking the "L" last week. They've been hit hard by some injuries, but should still be able to defeat a team that is just 1-26 SU its last 27 road games. Lay the short number here.

Let us also not forget the last time Cleveland was off a win. They'd just beaten the Bengals (snapping a 25-game road losing streak) and headed to Houston where they were completely outclassed by the Texans in a 29-13 loss (shutout in the 1H). Last week saw the Browns bounce back, at home, over a slumping Carolina team. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield has brought alot of excitement to this downtrodden organization, but I can't help but think expectations are a little TOO high right now w/ actual talk of running the table and making the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see how Mayfield operates, on the road (and in primetime) against a defense that has allowed 22 pts or fewer in five straight games. The Browns' defense remains pretty poor as it ranks 31st in yards allowed. 

These teams have a history against one another that goes back to the late 1980's when they were the top two teams in the AFC. But that was long ago. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Browns are 0-7 SU vs. the Broncos. I think Denver's stock was a little too high going into last week's game vs. San Francisco, but now it's a "buy low" situation off the loss. This is a team that holds recent wins over both the Chargers and Steelers. Granted that was before losing CB Chris Harris and WR Emmanuel Sanders. Those injuries definitely played a role in losing to the 49ers, but I think the team was also overconfident heading into last week. That will no longer be the case here. The Broncos are still the better team here and getting a home game on a short week is always an advantage. 10* Denver

10* Fresno State (3:30 ET): Even though Fresno State (#23) is ranked, I think that a lot of people are going to do a double take when they seem them favored here over a Pac 12 team w/ a "name" head coach, Herm Edwards' Arizona State Sun Devils. But the Bulldogs deserve to be favored here and I believe will handle their business. To me, they are the BEST non-P5 team in America. (Yes, I'm including UCF in that discussion). FSU went 11-2 SU in the regular season and plays tremendous defense. They allow just 13.7 points per game, which was tied w/ Clemson for the second fewest in the entire country. Though bowl games aren't typically noted for their defense, I believe this Bulldogs team has enough pride to pack its D for Vegas as it looks to win its 22nd game in the L2 seasons. Lay the short number. 

Herm Edwards proved all the critics wrong in his 1st season in Tempe. He led the Sun Devils to a 7-5 SU record and they were never blown out. All five losses were by 7 points or less, four of them coming exactly by a seven-point margin, plus they lost by only two at Oregon. But they also won four games by a field goal or less. Having played so many close games, you might think playing ASU as an underdog would be ideal. After all, they did go 5-2 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But playing this game w/o WR N'keal Harry (skipping it to prepare for the NFL Draft) is not only the harsh reality of College Football, but just plain problematic. Harry had 73 catches for 1,000+ yards and nine touchdowns this year. That's a ton of production that ASU simply won't be able to replace in this game and going against one of the top defenses in the country makes things even tougher.

Fresno State has been one of the top ATS teams in the country the L2 seasons under Jeff Tedford, going 19-6-2 ATS overall. So having to lay such a short number w/ them is pretty nice. Yes, they're facing a Pac 12 school, but the Bulldogs just beat Boise State in the Mt West Champ Game (on the blue turf!) and won't be intimidated. This game is being played at MWC venue, the Sam Boyd Silver Bowl, home of UNLV. So that's another advantage for Fresno State. They won here just last month. Granted, it won't be as easy as 48-3 (destroyed UNLV), but it's still an edge. These teams had one common opponent during the regular season, San Diego State, and while Fresno State dominated the Aztecs (won 24-13), Arizona State lost to them 28-21. 10* Fresno State

8* Over North Texas/Utah State (2:00 ET): The build for the 2018 New Mexico Bowl centers as much around who is/isn't coaching as anything else. Seth Litrell has decided to remain at North Texas after flirting w/ the Kansas State job. Utah State isn't so lucky as they lost HC Matt Wells to Texas Tech. (Former Aggies HC Gary Andersen will replace him, returning to Logan after leaving for Wisconsin six years ago and then a failed stint at Oregon State. But it will be USU assistant Frank Maile coaching the bowl game). Let's not let the respective coaching situations overshadow the growth of these two programs. Even though this spread is one of the largest of the non-CFP games, these are two of the best non-P5 teams in America. I expect a high-scoring affair in Albuquerque come Saturday afternoon.

North Texas started the season strong. They were 6-1 SU midway through October and had a win over an SEC school (Arkansas). But a 2-3 SU finish (also 0-5 ATS) resulted in the Mean Green not making the C-USA Champ Game for 2nd straight year. They averaged 36.4 PPG and 472.8 YPG on offense, both of which were top 20 nationally. However, the Under went 11-1 in their 12 regular season games, making them the top Under team in the entire country. That hasn't stopped oddsmakers from installing a pretty high total for this matchup w/ Utah State. That's because the Aggies bring in an offense the likes of which this Mean Green defense hasn't seen all season. 

Utah State averaged 47.2 PPG during the regular season. Only two teams scored more - Oklahoma and Alabama. So being in the top three is pretty impressive company. The Aggies lost only two games in the regular season, their first (in OT at Michigan State) and last (33-24 at Boise State). In between, they won 10 straight games. While Wells is gone, the offense he built is still in place and should continue scoring at will. Unlike UNT, the Over hit more often than not for USU, going 8-3-1. So it's one of the top Over teams vs. the top Under team. My read is that both offenses are going to have their way here and we'll see little in the way of defense. Utah State plays at a fast tempo and North Texas is unlike most opponents in that they will keep pace thanks to QB Mason Fine, who threw for 300 yds and 2 TDs in all but two games this year. The Mean Green have one of the top passing attacks in the entire country. 8* Over North Texas/Utah State