Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

8* Under Predators/Stars (8:35 ET): To classify Dallas as an "Under team" is the equivalent of calling the Golden State Warriors "good at basketball." Well, maybe the former assertion is less known, but it certainly is no less true. I've previously discussed the somewhat "radical transformation" this Stars team has undergone. It actually started LY when they jumped from 29th (ahead of only a historically bad Colorado team) in the league for goals allowed (2016-17) to 6th. This year, they've taken a step further and rank 3rd. Thus, the Under is now 35-16-7 in all of their games. 

Unfortunately for the Stars, scoring matters too. They've failed to score even a single goal in the last two games, getting shutout by both Tampa Bay (6-0!) and Carolina (3-0). For the year, they are now 29th (third worst) in the league in goals per game. So, you can see how this club has been such a boon for Under bettors. Even O/U lines of 5.5, which used to be standard (but not so much anymore) haven't prevented the Unders from rolling in. The Under is 7-1-1 their last nine games with four of those seeing either them or the opponent get shutout. 

Tonight, Dallas hosts Nashville. This is the third time these teams have met this month. The previous two, predictably, both stayed Under. Both games took place in Nashville w/ the Preds winning the last one (3-1) after losing the initial battle, 3-2. Nashville has seen 7 of its last 10 games go Under, but not the last one as they gave up five goals in Vegas. I don't see them giving up that many here as they rank 4th (right behind Dallas) in goals allowed per game. This is basically the opposite of yesterday's Over play on Ottawa-Chicago, the two teams that give up the most goals per game in the league. Expect this to be a real low-scoring affair. 8* Under Predators/Stars

8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): One of the strangest things in the NHL has to be the Devils seeming "mastery" of the Penguins. It's not like these teams could even be considered remotely equal. Over both the short-term (this season) and the last several seasons, the Pens have been the better team. Yet, New Jersey has still found a way to win six of the seven meetings (6-0-1) including all three this season where they've outscored Pittsburgh 15-6. I'd like to point out that the Devils have basically been in last place in the Metro all season and currently have only 54 points to their name. 

I see Pittsburgh breaking through tonight. Right now, they really need two points. They find themselves tied w/ Columbus for third in the Metro and are just one point up on hard-charging Carolina. As things stand now, the Pens would be a Wild Card entrant in the playoffs, but that position is precarious at best. I do see them as better than their current spot though, given they have a top five goal differential in the Eastern Conference. They've certainly had little difficulty scoring of late as they are averaging more than four goals per over the last five games. They scored six in a win over the Rangers Sunday. 

New Jersey comes into tonight off B2B wins. This may not seem like a monumental feat, but for them it's just the third time doing so since starting the season 4-0. Their only win streak of more than two games took place in late December. This is the first time they've posted consecutive wins since mid-January. One of them saw the Devils rally from a three-goal deficit in Minnesota, a game where they were huge underdogs (closed +240) on the ML. I just can't see them winning again, let alone another time against a Penguins team that is clearly superior. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Toledo (7:00 ET): This will be the second straight game we're fading Eastern Michigan. The decision worked out quite well on Saturday as they lost at Kent State, 71-58, which was my top NCAAB play for all of last week. The Eagles were facing a revenge-minded Golden Flashes team there, one that they'd beaten by 34 (here in Ypslianti) earlier in the season. Now EMU does get a slight edge tonight by returning home, but that alone will not be enough against a superior Toledo side, which had won five in a row before losing to conference leader Buffalo in its last game. Lay the short number here. 

Despite losing (at home) to Buffalo on Friday, Toledo is still out in front in the MAC's Western Division w/ an 8-4 SU conference record. Two of those four losses are to Buffalo, who is quite clearly the class of this league. The Rockets were certainly a lot more competitive the second time around, losing by only six after getting blown out by 30 up in Buffalo. One of their other two conference losses came by two against Kent State, an overtime game where they blew a 17-point lead. So a strong case could be made for the Rockets being called the MAC's 2nd best team. They are 20-5 SU overall and actually led Buffalo 17-4 out of the gate Friday night. This is a strong three-point shooting team (36.6% of total pts come from behind the arc), which likely spells trouble for an offensively-challenged EMU squad.

Eastern Michigan scored only 58 pts in the loss to Kent State on Saturday. That's not too out of the ordinary as they have averaged only 57.3 points the L4 games. It would be one thing if their struggles scoring were confined to the road. But in a recent home game vs. Northern Illinois, they were held to just 48 points. I'm not even going to get into an early season loss at Rutgers where they set a NCAA record for futility, scoring just FOUR points in the 1st half. For the year, the Eagles are shooting below 30% from three-point range, which is beyond reproach. The slow pace at which they play is hurt by the fact they are turning the ball over at a 21% rate in conference play. Toledo has won 15 of the 17 games it has been favored in this season. 10* Toledo

8* Nebraska (7:00 ET): The Cornhuskers certainly fell victim to a monumental slide in January, not only losing seven straight games, but failing to cover the spread in all seven losses as well. Some of that can be tied to the loss of the team's second leading scorer, Isaac Copeland Jr. But the slide had actually begun prior to Copeland's season-ending ACL injury and was quite mystifying. This is a team I had ranked in the top 15 of my own power rankings at one point. Thankfully, they have stopped the bleeding some w/ B2B wins over Minnesota and Northwestern in the last week. They even covered the spread against N'western, winning 59-50 as a 5.5-point choice in Lincoln. 

We may have FINALLY reached the point where the Cornhuskers are truly being undervalued. Tonight, they face a Penn State team they've already beaten, 70-64, back on January 10th. They did not cover the spread in that game (were -10.5), but I certainly think it's instructive to look at how far the line has shifted for this rematch. Nebraska has gone from a DD favorite to a slight underdog here and I don't think that's warranted, even after factoring in the Copeland injury and change of venue. Penn State has won only twice in Big 10 play and both times came as an underdog. The two times they were favored both resulted in outright losses here in Happy Valley.

Exactly one week ago, the Nittany Lions did pull off a big upset here at home as they beat Michigan 75-69 as seven-point dogs. But that was followed up w/ a double digit loss at Purdue on Saturday. I do feel that Penn State has fallen victim to some "bad luck" this season, but that's all water under the bridge now. They are only 6-6 SU at home and have suffered five outright losses here (SU loss when favored). Tonight marks just the 5th time Nebraska has been an underdog all season. So as said earlier, we finally may have reached the point where they can truly be considered "undervalued." I expect them to win tonight. Take the points. 8* Nebraska