Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

8* Milwaukee (4:05 ET): It’s all come down to this for the Grizzlies, who need a win to clinch a spot in Saturday’s play-in series. They still have a shot to move back up into 8th (meaning they’d need to win just once in the play-in series instead of twice), the spot they’d occupied going all the way back to January - that is until they lost Sunday to Boston. The Grizz are a poor 1-6 SU since the restart, have lost Jaren Jackson to injury and generally played very poorly in Orlando. Unfortunately (for them), I do not expect a win in this “must-win” game Friday. 

Now the Grizzlies have been given a bit of a “gift” in that Giannis Antetokounmpo has been suspended for head-butting Washington’s Mo Wagner. The Bucks still won that game, mind you, 126-113 as nine-point chalk. Giannis was likely to sit this game out anyway (rest) but note that if he did play, I’d have the Bucks as 12-point favorites! He’s an MVP candidate, but I’m not sure any one player is worth more than 12 pts to the spread. 

Of course, the Bucks could rest other players. But even so they scored 126 pts vs. Washington on Tuesday despite several absences. We really should not be that surprised about Memphis struggling here in the bubble. They’ve only been favored by one time. Full disclosure - we’re rooting for Phoenix to make the playoffs as our numbers say they are pretty clearly the 8th best team in the West. The Grizzlies simply have no momentum or confidence right now and probably deserve to lose this game. 8* Milwaukee 

10* LA Dodgers (9:40 ET): The Dodgers, who I believe are the best team in baseball, will try and earn a split of this four-game series with San Diego. They won yesterday, 6-0, which obviously means they dropped the first two games. But sporting the league’s best run differential (+42) by a comfortable margin tells me that this team’s best days are ahead. Julio Urias, originally supposed to start Wednesday’s game, will now get the nod tonight. 

The Dodgers are allowing the fewest number of runs per game in the National League right now (just 2.8), but the biggest question seems to be their lack of offense. A four-run eighth made last night’s game seem like a bigger blowout than it actually was. However, I’m not concerned with the fact the Dodgers have managed only nine runs in the series. They are still among the league leaders with 96 runs scored in 19 games. 

What is surprising is that San Diego is neck and neck with the Dodgers in terms of number of runs scored this season. It’ll be up to Urias, who has a 1.76 ERA vs. the Padres, to slow them down. I think he will. Obviously, SD failed to score a single run last night. Chris Paddack is the Padres starter tonight. He has a 5.31 ERA in four career starts vs. LA. He’s also allowed a HR in three consecutive starts. If it gets down to the respective bullpens, then that’s a huge edge for the home team. 10* LA Dodgers

10* Over Blue Jackets/Lightning (3:05 ET): The Lightning have been one of the highest scoring teams in the league over the last three years, but they’ve yet to see a single Over since the start, going 4-0 Under. Still I’m not sure that’s even on their minds right now after a 5OT win over Columbus in Game 1 Tuesday. That win was huge for TB as they were shockingly swept by the Blue Jackets in the 1st Rd of LY’s playoffs. Losing a game of that length would have been extremely confidence-crushing for the higher seed. 

Every Lightning game thus far has seen a total of five goals scored. They have three victories by a count of 3-2 and their lone defeat (to Philadelphia) was by a score of 4-1. But oddsmakers have dipped the O/U line down to 5.0 for Game 2 and that’s a real key for me. Despite not having either Steven Stamkos or Victor Hedman in the lineup, TB got off a playoff-record 88 shots in Game 1. As good as Joonas Korpisalo has been since the restart, being under that kind of fire will take it out of a goalie. 

Columbus, who has gone Under in four of six games so far, has basically played six games in the last four days. That’s brutal and you have to wonder if fatigue could start to become a factor at some point. Still, you shouldn’t discount a Blue Jackets side that’s scored 12 times in its last four games and has yet to lose B2B times. They had 60+ shots on goal in Game 1. The Over is 7-2-1 the L10 times the Blue Jackets have played on one day’s rest. 10* Over Blue Jackets/Lightning