Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

10* Philadelphia (7:20 ET): Though both teams enter this series eight games back of the Mets, with identical 19-22 records, I think it’s fair to say the Phillies have played far better than the reigning World Series Champion Braves in 2022. Philadelphia has a +11 run differential so far while Atlanta is -11. The last two weekends have seen the Phils be very competitive with the Dodgers, who are the best team in baseball, taking four of seven games including yesterday’s 4-3 final. The Phillies also have some revenge here after being swept late last season at Truist Park. I like the road team in today’s series opener. 

Bryce Harper is just 1 for 8 since returning to the Phillies lineup, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets going at the plate again. Really, tonight should be a big game for the entire Phillies’ lineup, which is averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road. They face Tucker Davidson, a lefty with just one start under his belt. Davidson did throw five shutout innings in that lone start, but also did allow 5 ER earlier this year in his one stint as a reliever. The Phillies have hit lefties relatively well thus far and would seem to be “due” for a big offensive game on Monday after 10 straight games of facing the pitching of the Dodgers & Padres. 

On the mound, Zack Wheeler should get the job done here for the visitors. Wheeler has allowed a total of just three runs over his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA. In three of the four starts, he went at least six innings and didn’t give up a single run. He has 23 strikeouts against only two walks in his last three starts and last time we saw Wheeler he allowed just four hits against San Diego. The Braves have scored three runs or less in four of their last seven games (lost 4-3 Sunday in Miami) and they have a losing record at home. Wheeler has a 3.23 career ERA against them. 10* Philadelphia

8* Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): I know that backing the Pirates isn’t exactly the “sexy” move right now, but after being drubbed over the weekend by St. Louis (here at home), they should come out highly motivated for the opener of this new series. The Bucs are getting an ideal opponent in Colorado, who has dropped 10 of its last 13 overall, including six of nine on a recently completed homestand. The Rockies just played a doubleheader on Saturday, so that’s three games in the last two days for them and as we all know, they are traditionally a terrible team away from Coors Field. They are 1-9 L10 games as a road underdog.

The Pirates were absolutely humiliated on Sunday, losing 18-4 to the Cardinals in an early start time. It was 7-0 by the second inning. But they should count on getting a better start here from JT Brubaker, who had 10 strikeouts in his last start and also threw six shutout innings of four hit ball in his lone start vs. Colorado last season. The Rockies just are not doing much scoring on the road this year, averaging only 2.7 runs per game, the fewest in the National League. Furthermore, when facing a right-hander on the road, the team is last in batting average, 29th in slugging and 29th in OPS. They are getting outscored by more than 3.0 rpg on the road thus far! Did I mention that, at home, Colorado was shutout on Sunday? Their current lineup is batting just .150 all-time vs. Brubaker. 

The Rockies inability to hit/score runs on the road is especially problematic tonight as they send Chad Kuhl to the mound. Kuhl has a 7.54 ERA and 1.754 WHIP over his L3 starts and the team has lost them all. He’s allowed 5 ER in B2B outings.As a former member of the Pirates, Kuhl knows PNC Park well, but I don’t think that will help him in this instance. The Rockies’ relief pitching is no better as they are last in bullpen ERA. Something else to note is that the team has lost its last six series openers. This is one of the rare times Pittsburgh is a justified ML favorite. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): I thought for sure that I had the Under cashed in Game 3 of this series. With 48 seconds remaining, the Heat were up 100-94. The total was 208.5. Stranger things have certainly happened, but you don’t normally see 15+ points scored over the final 48 seconds. Well, Game 3 saw 18 as there were a couple technical fouls plus Boston kept making “garbage time” threes. The Over is now 3-0 in this series, which is not what most were expecting and going back to 2020, the teams are 8-0-1 Over when facing each other in the Conference Finals. Don’t you think it’s time for an Under? 

There’s a good chance Miami enters Game 4 shorthanded as six players (Lowry, Tucker, Herro, Strus, Vincent and Butler) are all listed as questionable. Though they won despite him leaving Game 3 early, Butler not playing would be significant as he’s been the unquestioned “go to guy” for the Heat at the offensive end in these playoffs. Butler is averaging nearly 30 PPG in the postseason. Bam Adebayo scored 31 in Game 3. Though he should again rack up some good stats, especially if multiple teammates are out, Adebayo isn’t likely to match his Game 3 scoring output as he scored only 16 in the first two games combined. 

I can’t see Jaylen Brown scoring 40 again for the Celtics either. His previous playoff high was 30. A big key in this series is that we’ve seen high-scoring first halves. The team with the lead at the half (Boston twice) has scored at least 62 points. I don’t anticipate that being the case in Game 4 as these are two of the best defensive teams in the league and neither allows more than 53.2 per game in the 1H for the year. So look for the scoring to (finally) slow down as Boston is 12-6 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Under Heat/Celtics