Bryan Power Sports NBA Picks

10* Denver (10:35 ET): I don't think the Clippers are going to be very good this year while Denver projects to be a top 4-5 team in the West. Therefore, even in LA, this looks like a good value play on the Nuggets. The preseason, as meaningless as it is to some, showed me that the Nuggets are going to score plenty of points this year. In particular, a much-hyped game vs. the Lakers saw them score 124. After missing the playoffs five straight years (came very close L2 years), this team should win 50 games this year. 

The Clippers are a team trending in the opposite direction. Last year was their first time NOT making the playoffs since 2010-11. They traded away Blake Griffin. They were not healthy, which hopefully won't be the case this year, but players like Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari are injury-prone. Their most reliable scorer, Lou Williams, is best served as a 6th man. Doc Rivers' starting five is now Tobias Harris, Gallinari, Beverley, Marcian Gortat and Avery Bradley. Hardly inspiring. At some point this year, HC Doc Rivers is going to focus on developing younger talent.

The Nuggets are loaded w/ scoring options: Nikola Jokic, Paul Milsap, Will Barton, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris may not be "household names," but trust me when I say that this team is going to put plenty of points on the board. This actually could be the deepest team in the entire league. Milsap being healthy will be key. Missing out on the playoffs because of a loss in the regular season finale still sticks w/ this team. They'll come out strong this year. 10* Denver 

8* Under Grizzlies/Pacers (7:05 ET): Memphis was not a good team last year. They lost 60 games and were outscored by 6.2 PPG. Now they weren't very healthy and that played a role in their significant decline. With upgrades at the wing and at the defensive end, I expect the Grizz to win more games this year. I don't think they'll make the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference, mind you, but an increase of 10 or so wins seems reasonable. Their problem lies at the offensive end.

Indiana won 48 games LY and was the #5 seed in the Eastern Conference. Most project them to be in the top five in the Eastern Conference again this year, but I say don't be surprised if they win fewer games. That's because they were an extraordinarily fortunate 11-2 SU in games decided by three points or less last season (3-0 in overtime). That won't be repeated and the Pacers are largely bringing the same roster back. I believe regression is inevitable, even in a weak Eastern Conference. 

For this season opener, I expect a relatively low-scoring game. Memphis was one of only two teams in the entire league NOT to average 100 PPG last year (Sacramento was the other). The Grizzlies do have Mike Conley back at PG, which is the most important "addition" from last year, but the new pieces - such as Summer League star Jaren Jackson Jr - will take time to gel. Both times these teams played last season, the game went Over. But those two games saw excellent shooting that won't be repeated here. The total is also higher than either of LY's matchups. 8* Under Grizzlies/Pacers 

10* Houston (8:39 ET): After "stealing" Game 1 at Fenway Park, the Astros now find themselves trailing in the ALCS, two games to one. They went down at home last night, 8-2, as the Red Sox poured it on late including a Jackie Bradley Jr grand slam. This is now the first time since the start of September that the Astros find themselves off B2B losses. They have not lost three in a row since a swoon in mid-August and there have only been six losing streaks of three or more games all season. I still believe the Astros are the better team here and will ride them in Game 4. 

Tonight is an interesting starting pitching matchup. Charlie Morton makes his first postseason start for Houston. This will be his first time pitching in two weeks and he's thrown all of four innings in the last month. Morton did go 15-3 in 30 starts in the regular season and finished strong w/ a 0.60 WHIP his L3 starts. He faced Boston twice in the regular season, going 1-1. Ironically, the bad start was here at home, but that doesn't concern me. Even if it ends up being a short night, remember the Astros bullpen lead the league in ERA. I don't think Morton is going to allow much damage here. 

Boston goes w/ Rick Porcello, who was originally going to start Game 3, but had to be pushed back due to working Game 2 in a relief role. Like Morton, Porcello hasn't exactly thrown a lot of innings over the last month. The Boston bullpen has been very good in this series, but I see Porcello giving up some runs before they are able to "go there." Houston was 1 for 8 w/ RISP last night and I can't see that happening again. I think Porcello bouncing back and forth between being a reliever and starter may have an adverse effect on him and look for the Astros, who are "too good" to drop B2B games at home, to take advantage. 10* Houston