Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

I'm playing on MILWAUKEE. Hawks are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Bucks are in an angry mood. Even with the loss to the Lakers, they're still an outstanding 31-13 ATS when off an 'upset' loss. While the Bucks have been facing top tier teams like the Lakers and Nets, the Hawks have been taking on the likes of the Pistons and T-Wolves. The Bucks come in rested; they've had the past two days off. They also have the next two days off. In other words, the Hawks will have their full attention. The Bucks won all three of last season's games by a minimum of eight points. The most recent meeting saw them hammer the Hawks by 26 points. They were up 63-40 by halftime and cruised the rest of the way. I'm expecting another double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on EDMONTON. The Oilers have the schedule in their favor for this one. While Edmonton had yesterday off, the Jets were busy beating up on Ottawa. Now, in addition to playing a second game in two days, the Jets will be playing their fifth game in the past seven days. After three straight games against the lowly Senators, the Oilers represent a step up in class. The Jets traded away their sniper Laine to Columbus, in exchange for Dubois. However, they won't be able to get Dubois for awhile, due to quarantine issues. Off to a slow start to the season, the Oilers know they need to take advantage of this favorable situation. Expect them to do exactly that. 

I'm playing PORTLAND on the moneyline. I successfully played against the Knicks in their loss at Sacramento, on Friday. I expect them to stumble again tonight. The Blazers host OKC on Monday. After that, however, they play six straight on the road. The fifth of those will be at MSG, against these same Knicks. Knowing this and desperate to take advantage of these next two winnable games, before hitting the road, I expect the Blazers to leave it all on the floor for this one. Homecourt was certainly important in last year's games. The Knicks beat the Blazers 117-93 at MSG. However, the Blazers won 115-87 here at Portland. With the loss at Sacramento, the Knicks are now 23-60 on the road the past 2+ seasons. During that span, the Blazers remain a respectable 59-30 at home. With the Knicks just 2-18 SU their last 20 against teams from the Northwest division, expect the Blazers to improve on those stats Sunday night. 

I'm playing on DAVIDSON. Last season's lone meeting resulted in an 85-50 victory for Davidson. While this one figures to be closer than that, the Wildcats again have a talent advantage. Davidson has a big edge on the defensive side of the ball and that will make the difference in this one. The Wildcats are allowing 62.2 ppg on the road. The Minutemen, on the other hand, are allowing 82 ppg at home. Both teams have won three straight. I like that the Wildcats played on the 20th, as compared to the Minutemen playing on the 17th. When winning, in my opinion, a few days off between games is preferable to six days off. Note that UMass is 0-5 SU the past five times that it played with five or six day's rest in between games. The Wildcats have long thrived in the role of small road favorites. They're 5-1 SU/ATS the past six times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points. Going back further finds them at a lucrative 26-13-1 ATS (27-13 SU) their last 40 in that role. Davidson is 44-14 SU its last 58 as a favorite. Expect the Wildcats to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Washington eked out a shootout win when these teams met here on Thursday. The Caps deserve some credit for that victory, as they were seriously short-handed. They'll still be short-handed for this one, too. Facing a revenge-minded and highly motivated Buffalo team, I expect it to catch up with them. The Sabres have had had too many lean years of late. Off to a slow start, they badly want a victory before this (shortened) season slips away on them, too. Slow start notwithstanding, this Buffalo team is more talented than recent editions. Healthier and hungrier, expect them to bounce back with an important "W." 

I'm playing KC on the moneyline. While I absolutely respect the Bills, I don't believe that they're quite ready to beat the champs. While he hasn't been officially cleared, I'm making this selection under the assumption that Mahomes will play. Assuming that's the case, I expect a typical Mahomes like performance from the reigning Super Bowl MVP. Allen is right there amongst the best in the league, but he's still not Mahomes. One could argue that the Bills are somewhat fortunate to be here. The Colts outgained them by quite a lot in the Wildcard Rd, putting up nearly 500 (472) total yards, more than 300 through the air. Yes, the Bills' defense bounced back with a much better effort against Baltimore. I still believe that the champs have the edge on that side of the ball though. Remember, KC held Buffalo to a season-low 206 yards in the earlier meeting. While both teams should score plenty of points, ultimately, I expect KC to get at least one more stop, punching its ticket back to the Super Bowl. 

I'm playing on Buffalo/KC OVER the total. As of this writing, it remains unclear if Mahomes will be able to play or not. Obviously, he'll want to play. Its not up to him though. Obviously, if he's fit to go, the Chiefs want him in there, as do I. Here's what John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, told ESPN: "We certainly expect Mahomes to play. We moved the line up to [Chiefs] -3 after reading some quotes from Andy Reid that sounded positive." I expect him to be in there, too. With or without Mahomes, however, the Chiefs are going to need to score a lot of points. On a windy day in Buffalo, the Bills won with defense last week. That game notwithstanding, they're here because of their offense though. The Bills average 30.3 ppg. Both teams rank in the top 5 in terms of points scored and total yards. The Chiefs are number in the latter category. In the event that Mahomes doesn't play, Reid is still going to be aggressive. Henne now has some playoff snaps under his belt and he certainly has some bigtime weapons at his disposal. Neither of these offenses will be stopped on Sunday. Expect a shootout. 

I'm playing GB on the moneyline. Many shy away from the moneyline in football and basketball but it can often be the way to go. In this case, I believe that the Packers are peaking at the right time and they've got a lot of things going in their favor. I like the fact that Brown was offiically ruled out for Tampa. Talk about an epic showdown. Brees vs. Brady was good but a Rodgers/Brady showdown is even better. Playing at an extremely high level and playing at home, when its all said and done, I expect the younger Rodgers to emerge victorious. While Brees was still dangerous, he was also clearly past his prime. The same cannot be said of Rodgers. The season that Rodgers just delivered was simply remarkable. He enters the playoffs at the very top of his game. If you listened to Rodgers after last week's win, you would have heard him comment on how much having some fans at Lambeau gave the Packers a lift. I expect that to be the case once again. While the Bucs benefitted greatly from winning the turnover battle against the Saints, the Packers manhandled the Rams. That was a defense that made Wilson and the Seahawks look terrible. Yet, Rodgers was absolutely comfortable. Of course, the Packers three-headed rushing attack (Jones, Williams, Dillon) played a pivotal role. The offensive line was fantastic. In addition to the huge advantage of playing at home, I like the fact that he Packers have had an extra day of preparation than the Bucs. (They played last Saturday, while TB played Sunday.) Rodgers has recently started to receive the accolades which he deserves. However, for much of his career, he's been playing second fiddle. First, to Favre in Green Bay. Then, to guys like Manning and Brady. Those days are over. Expect Rodgers to get the better of Brady, the Packers punching their ticket to the Super Bowl.