Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

I'm playing on LA/Denver UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that the previous meetings had an O/U line of 220. We've got considerably more room to work with here. While both teams are likely to rest some starters, this is also a potential playoff matchup. Therefore, I do expect a little more defensive intensity than we might normally expect in a situation like this. Expect the UNDER to improve to 15-9 when the Clippers had allowed 115 or more points in their previous game. 

I'm playing on Vancouver/St. Louis UNDER the total. We're getting an O/U line of 5.5 to work with, though we have to lay some extra juice to get it, for tonight's opener. After tonight, however, we may be down to five the rest of the way. That extra half goal doesn't sound like much but is indeed often significant. The last two meetings between these teams had scores of 3-1 and 2-1. Going back further reveals that nine of the past 14 meetings between these clubs have produced five or fewer combined goals. Vancouver goalie Demko has been fantastic against the Blues over the course of his career. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be anticipating. 

I'm playing on LA. With Gonsolin now in the for the Dodgers, we're getting a better price than we would have otherwise. There's nothing wrong with Gonsolin though. In fact, he allowed 0 earned runs and just a single hit, through four innings, in his lone 'spot' start. In his last six starts, since last season, he has allowed just five combined earned runs through 28 complete innings. With Gonsolin unlikely to stick around too long, note that the Dodger bullpen has a stellar a 1.31 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. At home, that WHIP dips to 0.81. The Padres, 8-15 the past few seasons, after having won their previous three, send Davies to the mound. Like Gonsolin, he's unlikely to "go the distance." Unlike Gonsolin, he's backed by a SD bullpen which has a combined 5.80 ERA on the road. Dodgers bounce back. 

I'm playing on Chicago/Cleveland OVER the total. With all due respect to the starters, this number is too low. While its obviously only been one start, Hendricks has a horrible 12.47 ERA and 2.049 WHIP on the road thus far. Six of his last seven starts overall have produced a minimum of nine combined runs. The Chicago bullpen numbers are ugly, too. While Carrasco has been sharp, three of his last four starts have still produced double-digits in runs. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting.

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. While the Phillies lost a tough one yesterday, it didn't hurt them in the standings, as Atlanta (and Miami) lost, too. The Phillies know they need to take advantage of this favorable matchup though and I expect them to bounce back here. Eflin's lone start came against the powerful Yankees and he allowed 0 earned runs (2 unearned) through four innings, striking out five. While he's got a 0.00 ERA, LeBlanc has a poor 6.91 ERA through three starts. Last time out, he gave up six earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. With the O's just 34-75 the past 2+ seasons, when off a win, look for the Phillies to bounce back here. 

I'm playing on TORONTO. The Marlins showed some heart in battling back to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th yesterday. The Jays ultimately hung on to win their first game in their new "home" though. Today, I expect them to follow it up by winning their first game for their new young star pitcher. Yes, they're winless with Pearson on the mound thus far. However, this guy is a true talent, a top prospect, and that will change here. Through two starts, Pearson has a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Yamamoto, on the other hand, has a 9.00 ERA thus far. When also factoring in the rest of Toronto's advantages, this line could easily be higher. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Caps started slowly in the round robin but got better as it progressed. I believe that they're peaking at the right time, entering their series with the Islanders. The Isles are well-coached as former Trotz led the Capitals to the Cup a couple of years ago. The Caps are the more complete and talented team though, in my opinion. While the Isles were taking on the Panthers, the Caps were getting warmed up against top Eastern teams like Tampa, Boston and Philadelphia. The Caps can beat you with offense or with defense. They can beat you by being more physical or they can out-finesse you. That said, I feel this price is more than reasonable. Expect the Caps to draw first blood. 

I'm playing on Arizona/Col UNDER the total. These teams are both capable of being extremely stingy. Though the Avs have the talent advantage but the Coyotes can neutralize that with their system and netminder. Indeed, Arizona goalie Darcy Kuemper was excellent against Nashville in the qualifying round, posting a .933 save percentage while making 152 total saves and allowing only 11 goals. The last three meetings between them had scores of 3-0, 3-2 and 3-2. Look for this one to also finish with five or less.