Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

Given the matchup, the Giants aren't getting much respect. Bumgarner is off a strong start vs. the Dodgers. He allowed just four hits and only one run, through seven complete innings. That gives him a 2.84 ERA (1.053 WHIP) his past three starts. For his career vs. the Brewers, Bumgarner is 7-4 and has a 2.63 ERA. The Giants were 8-4 in those games, Bumgarner allowing three or less earned runs in 11 of them. In seven home starts vs. Milwaukee, Bumgarner has never allowed more than three earned runs and he allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of them. Nelson, who has a 5.28 ERA in five starts vs. SF, has only made one start so far this season and it didn't go well. He allowed four earned runs in three innings, good for a 12.00 ERA. While the Brewers are tough to beat at Milwaukee, they're only 500 on the road. The Giants took yesterday's game and I like their chances again this afternoon. Consider SF. 

Ben Burns has been WHITE HOT for months. He absolutely dominated in both April & May. Now, he's doing so again in June! Already 14-2 this week, expect another PERFECT S-W-E-E-P on Saturday!

I'm playing on NEW YORK. The Cards took yesterday's game. With an advantage on the mound, expect the Mets to bounce back big today. Syndergaard was dominant last time out. Through seven shutout innings, he held Colorado to a single hit. He's got a 2.75 ERA his last three starts, all of them quality. His last home start vs. the Cards resulted in a 9-4 win, Syndergaard striking out 10 without walking a batter. I won with the 'under' in Wacha's last start. So, I'm aware that he pitched well. However, I'm also aware that he's still got a 4.95 ERA, to go along with a high 1.632 WHIP, on the season. His last start here resulted in 6-2 loss, Wacha allowing four earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings. With the Mets a perfect 7-0 at home, when the O/U line was either 8 or 8.5, I'm backing Syndergaard on Saturday. 

I'm playing on Arizona/Washington UNDER the total. We're working with a much higher O/U line than one would have been for yesterday's Dbax/Nats game. I feel that the big number is generously high and providing us with plenty of value. Strasburg was giving up a few too many home runs early in the season but has only given up two his last eight starts. Last time out, he allowed just one run through seven complete innings. He didnt walk a batter and once again, no home runs allowed. The last time that he faced Arizona, Strasburgh allowed one run through 6 2/3 innings, recording nine K's against just five hits and one walk. The final score was 2-1. Clarke has faced some tough opponents lately as the Dodgers, Rockies and Phillies all average more runs than do the Nationals. His last start was in the rain but he was respectable (2 earned runs in 5 innings) in his start, prior to that. Over the past 2+ seasons, excluding pushes, the UNDER is 71-49 in Arizona day games and 84-57 in Washington day games. More of the same here. 

I'm playing on MIAMI. After getting embarrassed 11-0 yesterday, the Marlins are going to be in an angry mood today. With an expected advantage on the mound, I expect them to get some payback. Lopez is in outstanding current form. In his last three starts, Lopez has recorded 19 K's in 18 innings, while allowing just two earned runs. That's a 1.00 ERA. He's got a 0.778 WHIP to go along with that. In six home starts this season. Lopez has a dominant 1.78 ERA and 0.973 WHIP. Agrazal will be making his major league debut. Look for Lopez to outpitch and outlast the rookie, the Marlins moving to 29-19 their last 48 as home favorites of -150 or less. 

I'm playing on Winnipeg/BC OVER the total. The Bombers are a team capable of putting up big points. In fact, they scored considerably more points than any team in the league last year. They'll face a BC team which allowed more points than any team in the West last season and which suffered some key offseason losses. BC's offense gets a big shot in the arm with Reilly now running the show. He's got two Grey Cup rings to his credit, along with a Grey Cup MVP award and a CFL's Most Outstanding Player Award. With three road games following this one, Reilly and co. know they really need this one. They're going to need to score a lot of points if they want it though. Seven of the last nine meetings between these teams have produced 53 or more points. Expect this one to also do so.