Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

I'm playing on GSW/LA UNDER the total. Off their epic meltdown in Game 2, the champs are going to be all business on the defensive end. The Warriors have seen the UNDER go 11-5 the last 16 times that they were tied in a playoff series, a 3-0 UNDER mark their last three in that situation. They've also seen the UNDER go 7-2 this season when attempting to avenge a home loss and a 18-7 UNDER mark the past 25 times that they attempted to avenge a SU loss as a home favorite. That includes a 16-5 UNDER mark in those games if they'd been favored by seven or more. Meanwhile, the Clippers have seen the UNDER go 18-9 the past couple of seasons, off an upset road win. That includes a 7-3 UNDER mark their last 10 in that situation. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. All things considered, this line could easily be higher. While both teams come in looking for a win, the schedule, venue and matchup favor the Padres. While San Diego had yesterday off, the Reds were busy playing at LA. The Reds have been terrible on the road this season, again. Roark's 4.30 ERA doesn't seem that terrible. However, a 1.70 WHIP shows that he's been giving up a lot of baserunners. Paddack, on the other hand, has a dominant 1.29 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, striking out more than a batter per inning. The rookie has a great fastball/change-up combination and hitters being unfamiliar with him has been working in his favor. The Padres are a perfect 3-0 the past 2+ seasons, when off b2b division losses, in which they were favored, while playing at home. Expect them to improve on those stats here. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. Pineda (2-0) has been sharp, allowing three or fewer earned runs in all three starts. He's got a solid 3.00 ERA and a stellar 1.00 WHIP. For the season, he's got 15 K's against just two walks. Last time out, he threw 76% of his pitches for strikes - the highest strike percentage of any major league start in 2019. Buchholz had a successful debut. That said, he certainly wasn't dominating hitters, his fastball topping out at 89.6 mph. Look for the Twins to close out the series with a win, improving to a profitable 29-14 the past 43 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 8 or 8.5. 

I'm playing on SJ. The Sharks took Game 1. Since then, the Knights have won three straight. I'm not counting San Jose out though. The Sharks are 26-17 at home, the Knights are 20-23 on the road. While Vegas was dominant in winning 5-0 last game, the Sharks are 6-1 after scoring one goal or less. Going back further finds them at a profitable 27-13 (+10.9) their last 40 in that situation. On the other hand, the Knights are just 14-16 (-9.1) after scoring four or more goals. Needless to say, the Sharks haven't forgotten that the Knights knocked them out last year. They're not going to let it happen on home ice. Not tonight, at least. Expect them to play with desperation right from the opening whistle and look for them to extend the series.