Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (8* MAIN EVENT). This line has climbed from its opener. Getting more than a field goal with Mike Zimmer's Vikings is offering excellent value, in my opinion. While staying healthy is always a top priority, Zimmer typically takes the preseason more seriously than many coaches. Last week, when Zimmer was returning to the field for the second half, when asked about the Vikings first half, he had this to say to a reporter: "There wasn’t much that I liked, to be honest with you." (The Vikings would go on to win the second half and the game.) That effort, coming on the heels of last year's second half meltdown - you may recall that they finished on a 3-8 slide, after starting 5-0 - should ensure we get a fairly motivated effort tonight. These teams played here on this very day (Aug 18) last year. The Vikings won 18-11. A similar result won't surprise. 

I'm playing on COLORADO (10* PERS FAV). Even off yesterday's loss, the Rockies are still a lucrative 37-23 (+9.4) here on the season. This should be an excellent spot for them to bounce right back. Marquez wasn't as his best last time out. However, he's been pretty solid overall. The Rockies are a profitable 7-2 (+5.2) in his nine home starts. He's got a 4.31 ERA and 1.278 WHIP in those games, pretty respectable given the venue. Marquez faced the Brewers once last season, delivering a quality start. Through six complete innings, he allowed two runs, striking out seven against one walk. On the other hand, Garza is 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA vs. Colorado. Note that Garza also has an awful 7.53 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in three August starts. Walking nine batters, while also serving up five long balls, in 14 1/3 innings, is a recipe for disaster. Rockies roll. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON (5* VIOLATOR). The Astros are obviously pretty steep favorites here. However, in my opinion, given the matchup, the price could easily be even higher. Keuchel is 4-1 with a dominant 1.59 ERA and 0.907 WHIP in six home starts. After a bad outing two starts ago, he responded with a strong effort last time out. The same can NOT be said for Manaea. He lasted only 1/3 of an inning last time out. While recording only one out, he allowed six earned runs! He'd been terrible before that, too. Through three August starts, he's now got a brutal 17.57 ERA to go along with an obscene 3.754 WHIP. Seriously bad numbers. Keuchel is 2-0 in two starts against the A's this season, dominating them each time. Houston won by identical 7-2 scores. Expect another blowout. 

I'm playing on CHICAGO (8* ANNIHILATOR). The Jays just won't quite go away. Each time that they look like their season is a write-off, they go on a little run to keep their fans' hope's alive. Don't be surprised if this proves to be the trip where it starts to unravel for them. Arrieta is officially back. He's now 4-1 with a dominant 2.09 ERA since the All Star Break, a 1.86 ERA his last three. To be fair, Happ has also been pitching well. That said, he can't be too happy about a trip to Wrigley; he's 1-4 with a 5.52 ERA and an ugly 1.935 WHIP in six starts vs. the Cubs. He'll take on a Chicago team which has pounded southpaws for 5.9 runs per game this season and a .277 average, FAR better than their numbers vs. right-handers. Not surprisingly, they're 19-10 (+6.8) vs. left-handers, now 71-45 the past 2+ seasons. With the Jays just 12-29 (-11.3) their last 41 as road underdogs in the +125 to +175 range, I'm laying the wood with Arrieta the home team. Go Cubs. 

I'm playing on Seattle/Minnesota to finish UNDER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). These teams also met in Week 2 of the preseason last year. The game came on the very same day, August 18th. Both teams were coming off a road win in their preseason opener, but that didn't translate to much offense. In fact, the game was scoreless after the first quarter and the Seahawks didn't score a single point until the fourth quarter. The final score was 18-11, zero total points scored by Seattle in three of four quarters, the Vikes going scoreless in two of their own. While we're getting a higher O/U line to work with than we were last season, providing additional line value, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair.