Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

I'm playing on Phoenix/Minnesota OVER the total (10* BLUE CHIP). I've successfully backed the Suns in each of their last home games, a cover (OT loss) vs. the Clippers and an outright double-digit win over Dallas. Off that victory and facing a Minnesota team which is currently playing some very high-scoring games, I expect to see plenty of points tonight. Note that the OVER is 10-3 the past 2+ seasons when Phoenix was off a double-digit win and 27-15 when the Suns were off an upset win as an underdog. The T-Wolves last game produced 271 combined points. The games before that saw 218, 234 and 225 points scored. The T-Wolves' last visit here saw them combine with the Suns for 221 points. Including that result, each of the last six meetings between these teams has seen a minimum of 214 combined points. Expect them to exceed that mark again tonight. 

I'm playing on PORTLAND STATE (10* BEAST). To some, this may not be the most appealing matchup on the board. However, in my opinion, it offers us the best value. The Vikings have three straight home games to finish 2018 and they're looking to finish strong. While the Lions do many of the same things, the Vikings do a lot of things well. For example, they force 20.4 turnovers per game and have a +5.1 turnover margin. Even more impressive, they have a +15.3 rebounding margin, which leads the nation. The Vikings also are best in the country at offensive rebounding, with a 21.4 per game average. While the Lions average 71.5 ppg, the Vikings average 84 and over 100 at home. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were home underdogs of six or fewer points. Look for them to dicatate the tempo (push the pace) and expect them to improve on those stats this evening. 

"Ben Burns makes picking winners look like shooting fish in a barrell." Now 7-1 the past two days and an amazing 52-22 his L74, Ben takes a look at today's Texans/Jets game:

Assuming you can get at least +7, I believe that the underdog Jets are well worth a look here. The Texans showed that they were beatable last week, losing againt the Colts. Note that they're just 4-10 ATS their last 14 off a divisional game, 2-4 ATS off a divisional loss. Factoring in last week's loss, the Texans are now 1-8 ATS the past 2+ seasons, in the final four weeks of regular season play. 

The Jets have shown some life of late. They lost by four at Tennessee two games ago, before winning outright at Buffalo last week. They're 5-1 ATS their last six as a home underdog in the +3.5 to +7 range. Consider grabbing the points. 

Ben Burns is having ANOTHER huge year. WHITE HOT ACROSS THE BOARD, he's closing it LIKE A LION. A SICK 7-1 mark (PERFECT 4-0 top plays) the L2 days brings Ben to a FANTASTIC 46-20 for the month, an AWESOME 123-74 the L6 weeks. Since late October, his top plays are 78-45, (+$26K) a SICK 27-9 (+$17K) RECORD the L36. Going back a few years finds that top-rated plays have produced an INSANE $107,350 IN PROFIT. Another MASSIVE weekend starts BRIGHT AND EARLY. You in?

I'm playing on IONA. Analysis to follow shortly 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (8* BREAKFAST CLUB). These teams recently met at Calgary. The Wild, who aren't as strong away from Minnesota, were playing the front end of back-to-back road games. They were also in the midst of a stretch which saw them drop five of six. They're back home now though, where they're a solid 10-6 on the season. The return home has resulted in a dramatic improvement in play. The recent slide is now in the past; the Wild have won their last two games by a combined score of 12-2. Momentum back in their corner, expect the revenge-minded Wild to get some payback, improving to 8-4 their last 12 as a host in this series. 

I'm playing on Houston/NY UNDER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). Off last week's loss to the Colts, expect the Texans to get back to their "defensive roots" this week. Coach O'Brien said: "It's probably not going to be great weather. But our guys are going to be ready to go." His top defenders are all on board and I expect them to be at their best. J.J. Watt had this to say: "Now we have to get back to work." Cornerback Jonathan Joseph commented: "But I'm definitely sure the type of team we are. We responded from 0 and 3, so we're definitely going to respond after this loss here with bigger things at stake going forward." Meanwhile safety Tyrann Mathieu added: "We just gotta do a great job of showing up..." Note that the UNDER is 2-0 the past couple of seasons, when the Texans were off a divisional home loss. During the same span the UNDE Ris 3-0 after the Texans shad covered in five or six of their last seven. (They're now 5-2 ATS their L7.) Add to that combined perfect 5-0 mark a 9-2 UNDER mark for the Texans in December and you've got a combined 14-2 UNDER angle. On the other side, the UNDER is 5-2 during the same period, when the Jets were off an upset win as an underdog. Expect a low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing on DENVER (10* MAIN EVENT). While I successfully played against the Broncos last week, they're back home now and I feel that they're providing us with excellent value. Keep in mind that this team had previous won and covered three straight. Last week was just a tough spot, as they were playing their second straight on the road. The Broncos' last few home games have come against quality teams like the Steelers, Texans and Rams. While Cleveland is better than it has been in recent years, the Browns have still dropped three of their last four on the road. The last two of those losses both came by double-digits. The Browns will be playing their third road game in the past four weeks and they've got divisional games against the Bengals and Ravens on deck. Expect the Broncos to bounce back and improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were off an upset loss as a road favorite. 

I'm playing on NORTH TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). The Aggies will say all the right things that they're happy to be here. They're not. They wanted a bigger bowl and this is a disappointment. That type of disappointment makes it difficult to win, let alone cover a big number. The Aggies' task is made that much tougher by the fact that the Mean Green are actually pretty good. In 2015, the Mean Green won only a single game, before hiring current head coach Seth Littrell. That hiring proved to be huge for them, as they've been competitive ever since. This marks their second straight season with nine wins and this is their best team under Littrel. While Littrel was rumord to be heading to K-State, he reportedly withdrew his name from consideration. Meanwhile, Utah State's coach (Matt Wells) has already left for Texas Tech. The Aggie offensive and defensive coordinators joined him, too. Having come up short in bowl games the past two seasons, the Mean Green have something to prove. I believe that this game means more to them and I expect that to lead to AT LEAST a cover.