Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

I'm playing on Houston/Minnesota to finish OVER the total (8* O/U BEST BET). After both games at Houston finished below the total, we're getting a little lower O/U number to work with here. Yet, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring affair. The T-Wolves couldn't score in Game 2. They're home now though, where they average 111.4 points. Meanwhile, the Rockets can score, regardless of venue. They average better than 110 ppg away from Houston. These teams met here a few weeks ago and combined for 249 points. In fact, Houston's last seven visits here have ALL produced a minimum of 220 combined points. Not surprisingly, the OVER was 6-1 in those games. Expect both teams to hit triple-digits, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. 

I'm playing on MIAMI (10* MAIN EVENT). After losing Game 1, the Heat responded with a big win in Game 2. After dropping Game 3, I expect them to again bounce back in Game 4. Including that Game 2 victory, note that the Heat are a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times that they found themselves trailing in a playoff series. Needless to say, the 76'ers have come along way. They've had a great season and are playing well. That said, as I noted when backing Miami in Game 2, this is 'new territory' for the 76'ers. They're not used to being in the playoffs and they're not used to leading in a playoff series. Look for a highly determined effort by the Heat, as they make the necessary adjustments, bouncing back and improving to 10-5 ATS their last 15 off a double-digit loss. 

I'm playing on LA (10* PERS FAV). After taking it on the chin in yesterday's opener, expect the Angels to bounce back big this evening. Holland's teams are 0-4 his last four starts. He only made it through 4 2/3 innings last time out, allowing three earned runs. Looking back further finds that Holland's teams are a dismal 4-19 the last 23 times that he took the mound. The Angels have seen plenty of him and are 3-0 the last three times that they faced him. On the other hand, Richards will have the advantage of starting against the Giants for the first time. Richards allowed just one run last time out and is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA through four starts. The Angels have won his last three starts by a combined score of 26-8. I expect them to provide Richards with plenty of support, en route to another big win. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). While the road team has won all four games in this series so far, I expect home ice to finally make a difference tonight. Even factoring in the results from this series, the Jackets are still 21-22 on the road, while the Caps are 27-15 at home. After dropping the first two games at home, things didn't look good. However, the Caps dug deep and won both. The momentum back in their corner and their swagger regained, I expect them to seize control of the series on Saturday. Off their 4-1 win, note that the Caps are a lucrative 68-42 (+11) the past 2+ seasons, after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. They've been in this situation before, while the Jackets have not. Experience + home ice + superior talent all add up to make the difference.