Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

The Tigers rallied with a pair of runs in the bottom of the 9th to force extra innings last night. They still lost. That type of defeat can be disheartening. Now, they're up against "Tiger-Killer" Dylan Cease. Cease just got the better of Urena last weekend. In two starts against Detroit this season, he's got a 0.00 ERA, allowing 0 runs through 14 innings. (Chicago won those games by a combined score of 14-0.) In last Sunday's game, he struck out 10 through seven shutout innings. Urena, for his part, recorded only one strikeout, while giving up three runs in five innings. Going back further finds Cease at a perfect 7-0 with a 1.91 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Tigers. The Sox won those seven games by a combined score of 53-18. Consider Chicago. 

Ben Burns KNOWS baseball! Ben was a PERFECT 3-0 at the ballpark Friday, while going 4-1 overall. He's now 109-68 (+$10,495) on the season. Since last year, he's 233-132 (+$45,270). 

I'm backing DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO on Saturday night. These guys fought to a draw in their first fight. While he's still a considerable favorite, this time, we're able to get Figueiredo at a far better price.

Here's what I said prior to the first fight: "A few weeks ago, in my preview of UFC 255, I stated the following: "The Royval/Moreno winner could find himself fighting Figueiredo next." Dana White didn't waste any time in making my prediction come true. As expected, both Moreno and Figueiredo won their November 21st fights. On December 12th, a mere few weeks later, the two will meet at UFC 256. It should be a good one. I believe that Moreno is better than Perez, the fighter that Figueiredo submitted in the first round last month. However, Figueiredo is a slightly bigger favorite for this fight than he was against Perez. (Most shops are at -300 or higher.) That's because the public has caught on that the flyweight champ, "God of War," is deadly both on the ground and on his feet. As I mentioned before his last fight: "I won with Figueiredo (19-1) in his last fight, as he took care of Joseph Benavidez in the first round. That victory came via submission, the seventh of his career. However, the flyweight champ is more known for his hands. He's got serious power for this weight class." Moreno is no slouch though. Royval was a pretty good fighter in his own right and Moreno stopped him in the first round. That brings him to an impressive 6-0-1 in the UFC. Moreno had this to say about the champ: "I'm more technical, I have more tools and I’m a lot quicker than him. The only thing you can say about Deiveson is that he’s a one-shot fighter, so I have to make that my advantage. I know that he can surprise. I know that he has a lot of tools, good elbows, good kicks. but I have a lot more speed than him and that’s going to be my advantage against him."I'm not about to lay -300 or more with Figueiredo. Not against a really good fighter. Not when both are taking the fight on short notice. I'm not about to go against the champ either. He's that good ... "

This time, however, we're able to get an angry Figueiredo, now with plenty of time to prepare, at a far better price. Figueiredo had this to say: "First of all, he speaks a lot, and I’m the guy to shut his mouth on Saturday. I'm going to knock out that guy in the first round. Pay attention, I'm going to knock that guy out in the first round." While it remains to be seen if Figueiredo will back up his words of a first round KO, one way or another, I expect him to get the victory. 

I'm playing on Utah/LA UNDER the total. The Jazz have been flying over the total during these playoffs. Those results have helped provide us with a very high O/U line for tonight's game. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Clippers season is essentially on the line. We've seen this before though. This is when they step up their team defense. In the first two games of the Dallas series, the Clippers allowed 113 and 127 points. However, after having lost those two, they responded by elevating their defensive intensity. Over the next five games, they allowed 108, 81, 105, 97 and 111. Even factoring in the Game 2 result, the Clippers have still seen the UNDER go 6-1-2 their past nine second round playoff games. Look for those stats to improve this evening. 

I'm playing on Belgium and Russia UNDER the total. Could this be the year that Belgium breaks through and wins it all? Possibly. The players aren't getting any younger and they know this will be the final kick at the can for the "Golden Generation." This first game won't be easy though. Not with the game being played in Russia. True, the Belgians dominated the Russians in a pair of h2h games in qualifying. That said, a closer look reveals that it was Hazard accounting for more than half (4) of their goals. That's significant as Hazard is far from 100% at the moment. He returned Sunday, a welcome sign for Belgium and its fans, but only for the final eight minutes. Belgium won that game (Croatia) by a score of 1-0. With neither Hazard, nor De Bruyne likely to start, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. 

I'm playing MINNESOTA on the run-line (+1.5 runs). While I like the Twins to win this one outright, in a game which could be close, I'm happy to grab the extra +1.5 runs. To his credit, Garcia has been pitching well. That said, the Astros are still just 2-3 when he starts on the road and he's up against one of the most consistent starters in baseball. Berrios is 6-2 with a 3.58 ERA on the season. The Twins are 8-4 when he's on the mound. Note that four of those games, including each of the past two, were decided by a single run. Also, note that he allowed four earned runs or less in all 12 of those starts. In fact, since last season, he's allowed four or fewer earned runs in 23 straight. When the opposing team isn't scoring many, that makes it difficult to lose by two or more runs. Four of Garcia's 10 starts were decided by a single run. I say Berrios and the Twins bounce back with AT LEAST the "run-line cover." 

I'm playing on LA. After dropping the first two games against Dallas, Kawhi and the Clippers responded with a convincing win in Game 3. Down 0-2 and desperate for a victory, I expect another Game 3 win and cover against Utah. While the Jazz were 23-15 on the road, the Clippers were 27-13 at home. That includes a 16-9-1 ATS (19-7 SU) mark when playing a home game with an O/U line of 220 or more. Even with the Game 2 loss, the Clippers are still 6-3 ATS their last nine, when trailing in a playoff series. They've been here before and there will be no panic. Last time on this floor, the Clippers won 126-111. Don't count them out yet. 

I'm playing on DENMARK. Matched up against Germany, France and Portugal, Hungary got stuck in this year's "Group Of Death." Finland feels much the same way. Russia is potentially beatable, but that won't be easy. Belgium is a top tier opponent. Today's match against Denmark is also going to be very difficult. The Danes rank 10th in the World (Finland is 54) in the Fifa Rankings and they know they can't afford to slip up in this game. While Denmark has lost just one of its past 13 matches, Finland is winless in its last six matches (4 losses, 2 draws) and is fortunate to even be here. I see this one going only one way. Denmark dominates play and wins the game, most likely by more than a goal.