Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

I'm playing TAMPA on the run-line (-1.5 runs) The Mariners may have taken the first two games of this series. However, the Rays have their ace on the mound this afternoon and I expect them to bounce back with a big win. Morton is 13-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season. He should reach 200 K's this afternoon. (In his past three starts, Morton has 29 K's without walking a batter!) At home, he's got a 2.50 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Gearin will be the 'opener' but Leblanc (5.40 ERA) will follow him and he's lost his last four appearances. Rays roll. 

I'm playing on TEXAS. After these teams played so many innings in splitting yesterday's double-header, having today's starter pitch well and go deep would be extra helpful today. Advantage Texas. Minor has a 1.23 ERA his past three starts, averaging 7 1/3 innings. On the season, he's got a 2.94 ERA and 1.179 WHIP, averaging 6 1/2 innings per start. He's also 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA his past five starts against the Angels. Sandoval, on the other hand, has yet to go more than five innings and has a 5.79 ERA. Rangers roll. 

I'm playing on Washington/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. I said that I expected runs to be at a premium yesterday and the final score was 4-1. I'm expecting another relatively well-pitched affair this afternoon. Corbin (3.34 ERA) is off back-to-back stellar starts. Last time out, he allowed one run through six complete. He'll face a Pirate team which struggles (29th in OPS) vs. southpaws. Musgrove also checks in off a gem. Through seven complete innings, he allowed just two runs, on only four hits. With nine K's against 0 walks in that one, his confidence level is arguably as high as its been all season. He struck out nine Washington batters, while allowing two runs, the lone time he faced the Nats. Corbin's last start here at Pittsburgh was a 2-1 final score, Corbin striking out 12 without walking a batter. I'm going with the Under. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. After losing with the Reds in Monday's opener, I came back and won with them yesterday. I'm coming back with them yet again this afternoon. No, I'm not a fan. I just have felt that they've had advantageous situations for each game. In this one, Strahm goes for San Diego. He pitched both Saturday and Sunday though, which means he won't be around long. In other words, this is more of a "bullpen day" for the Padres. Thats not such a good thing, given that SD relievers have a combined ERA which is close to five. Strahm personally has a 5.21 ERA overall and a 5.91 ERA during the day. True, Castillo struggled last time out. He'd been sharp before that though and he's still got a stellar 2.97 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through 16 home starts. Opposing hitters are batting .187 against him during the day. Castillo pitched well in his lone start against the Padres this season, a 4-2 win back on 4/20. Expect him to bounce back, the Reds grabbing the rubber game and closing the homestand with a "W." 

I'm playing on BOSTON. Yesterday's loss was a costly one for the Sox. They know that they have very little margin for error. I expect them to bounce right back today, as I believe that these two starters are currently going in opposite directions. Porcello, admittedly, has struggled this season. However, two of his last three starts have been gems. Last time out, he allowed a single run through six innings. Smyly has been even worse than Porcello overall. Importantly, unlike Porcello, he's not showing signs of getting any better. He gave up five runs in his last start and he's served up five long balls in his past two starts alone. He's got an 8.04 ERA his past three, compared to Porcello's 3.71 mark. Though he had previously pitched well here, Smyly got roughed up in his most recent start here at Fenway. That was in August of 2016 though, a game which saw him give up five runs in five innings, his team losing 8-6. Porcello last faced the Phillies almost exactly one year ago and he was dominant. He allowed just one run through seven complete innings, giving up a mere two hits (0 walks) while striking out 10. His teams are 3-1 over his career against Philadelphia, 2-0 when he's at home. Boston responds.