Ben Burns Expert NBA Picks & Free Plays

I'm playing on SEATTLE. Yesterday's loss was tough. I had Seattle +1.5 AND the 'under.' There were numerous chances to win both but in the end I lost both. I expect to bounce back and I expect the Mariners to do the same. Logue failed to go five innings last time out and still only has three starts under his belt. He's supported by an Oakland team which scores the second fewest runs in the majors. Only Detroit scores less. Gonzales beat Gausman and the Jays last time out after beating Scherzer and the Mets in his previous start. He allowed one earned run in both games, going six innings against Toronto and 6 2/3 against Washington. Expect him to outlast Logue and for the M's to outlast the A's. 

I'm playing TORONTO on the run-line (+1.5 runs) Both teams can hit. Yet, both are playing a lot of 1-run games of late. The Jays lost by one yesterday. Their three games against the Reds had scores of 3-2, 3-1 and 2-1. The Cardinals won big yesterday. However, two of their three previous games were all decided by a single run. After struggling a bit, Berrios turned the corner and tossed seven shutout innings last time out. The Jays are 7-2 his past nine starts and the two losses came by only three combined runs. Mikolas has great numbers but the Cards have still dropped three of his past five starts. The Cards are 23-22 in IL play the past few seaons, the Jays are 26-17. In a game which could easily come down to the wire, expect the Jays to bounce back with AT LEAST the 'run-line cover.' 

I'm playing ST. LOUIS on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals) I won with the Avs last game. I'm well aware that they're a very strong team. The Blues have been playing them tough though. Down 2-1, I expect them to bounce back and give their guests all they can handle. Remember, the first game was decided by a single goal and the Blues won the second. Also, the Avs only outscored the Blues 12-11 in the three regular season games. The Blues know its now or never. Their record here is every bit as Colorado's road record. Expect them to bounce back with AT LEAST the "puck-line cover."

I'm playing FLORIDA on the puck-line (+1.5 goals) Needless to say, the Panthers have dug themselves a deep hole. It will be very difficult to come all the way back. They know they need to take it one game at a time though; I don't expect them to go down without a fight. The Lightning were 10-9 (-6.1) this season, after winning their previous three or more games. The Panthers, for their part, are 10-3 (+7.1) the past 13 times that they lost their previous three or more games. They're also still 20-8 the past 28 times that they scored one goal or less in their previous game. While Tampa won the first game at Florida by multiple goals, the second was a 1-goal game. While Tampa won the first here by multiple goals, I see the second also resulting in another very close one. That said, I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 goals. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. The Pirates got embarrassed yesterday. Motivated by that 18-4 beating, I expect them to bounce back and start the new week and series with a victory. For starters, the Rockies aren't as good as the Cardinals. They're 45-80 away from Colorado the past few seasons. Also, I expect the Pirates to enjoy an advantage on the mound. While the Pirates didn't give him any run support and hurt him with bad defense, Brubaker was quietly really sharp last time out. Better than his stat-line suggests. Though 5 2/3 innings, he struck out 10 batters. Teammate Michael Chavis commented: "As soon as I saw Shelty [manager Derek Shelton] coming out to pull him, you feel bad. You see the dude throw so well, you want him to have good results. It was just kind of unlucky. He looked great. Just sucks." Brubaker, meanwhile, had this to say: "I felt good. Finally felt like I was getting back to where I was in Spring Training, earlier in the year after being sick. Strength, energy, everything was clicking on time. It felt like it was all back." Brubaker, who has received a grand total of three runs in his past three starts, should finally get some support. Kuhl is 0-2 (team is 0-3) and has an ugly 7.24 ERA and 1.756 WHIP his past three starts. Pirates bounce back. 

I'm playing on Miami/Boston UNDER the total. With a few minutes left, Game 3 appeared like it would surely finish below the number. Then, things got crazy. The refs didn't help matters. Either way, before that final foul-fest, the teams were playing stingy defense. I expect that to carry over into Game 4. The UNDER is 12-6 when Boston was off an upset loss. The Celtics were 'upset' twice in the Milwaukee series. Both times they responded with a strong defensive effort. The scores of the next games were 109-86 and 108-95. Both those games fell below the total and I believe that this one will, too.