Art Aronson – AAA Sports NBA Picks & Plays

This is a 10* on OVER

After experiencing subpar results each of the last two seasons, the Warriors are back on top of the NBA with a 16-2 record. They are outscoring teams by 13.5 points/game. Both the record and point differential are league bests. The team has won five in a row coming into Friday, also covering the spread in all five wins. Tonight, the Warriors host a Portland team that is off a four-point loss at Sacramento. That dropped the Blazers to 1-8 SU/ATS on the road this year. Prior to losing to the Kings, the Blazers had won four in a row (also 4-0 ATS), but all of those victories did come at home. What we are looking for here is a high-scoring affair as Portland isn’t any good defensively when they’re on the road and Golden State is quite prolific at scoring when they’re at home. It’s easy to understand why the Blazers are struggling so mightily on the road as they give up 115.3 points/game. Golden State averages 116.6 at home. Assuming the Warriors can hit that average, the Over looks like a lock with Portland coming in averaging 110 points/game. The Over is 5-0-1 in the Blazers' last six. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on BAYLOR

This is the Final in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament with #6 Baylor taking on Michigan State. Baylor was able to overcome a bit of a sloppy first half (13 turnovers) yesterday and beat VCU 69-61, just barely covering the 5.5 point spread. The Bears are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss came as 33 point favorites in the opening game. The opponent here is Michigan State, who upset UConn 64-60 (as 2.5 point dogs) on Thursday, thanks to scoring the game’s final nine points. The Spartans are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. The only team they lost to was Kansas (first game) and they also failed to cover Wednesday vs. Loyola Chicago. This is the third game in three days for both Baylor and Michigan State. Sparty’s two games have been decided by a total of six points. After two close calls like that, we’re just not sure they’ll have enough left in the tank to survive a vastly superior opponent. Baylor has won 31 straight non-conference games. Yesterday was probably the Bears’ weakest performance to date and they still won fairly comfortably. MSU is still only 2-8-1 ATS its last 11 neutral site games. Play on BAYLOR

AAA

This is a 10* on UAB

UAB is off a heartbreaking last-second loss to undefeated UTSA. That guarantees the Blazers won’t be returning to the C-USA Title Game. But look for them to take their frustrations out on UTEP Friday afternoon in the home finale in Birmingham. UAB is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS this season. In conference play, they are winning by an average of two touchdowns per game. That’s a lot better than UTEP, who is 7-4 SU and ATS, but only winning by an average of three points per game in conference play. The Miners weren’t expected to have a winning record in 2021. But they’ve won all five games where they were favored and pulled a couple upsets. However, UTEP has been blown out twice as a double digit underdog, once by UTSA and once by Boise State. UAB is 27-11-2 ATS its last 40 conference games and still covered in last week’s heartbreaking defeat. The Blazers have beaten UTEP five straight times, the last four wins all coming by at least 15 points. Play on UAB

This is an 8* on TEXAS

It’s been an incredibly disappointing season in Austin as Texas comes into the season finale with a 4-7 SU record. They have lost six straight games, also going 0-6 against the spread during that time. All signs point to the blown lead against Oklahoma, a game the Longhorns led 28-7 after the first quarter, as the tipping point for when things went south. But this has clearly been a case of a team being unlucky rather than bad. Five of the Longhorns’ six straight defeats have been one-score games. Yes, they lost to Kansas. But we are expecting them to “show up” here on Senior Day and beat a Kansas State team that’s got nothing to play for. The Wildcats lost 20-10 at home to Baylor last weekend. They’ve also lost four straight against Texas with last year’s game being decided by 38 points in Manhattan. Texas is a lot better than its record. We expect them to show that Friday afternoon. Lay the short number. Play on TEXAS

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