Art Aronson – AAA Sports NBA Picks & Plays

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Boston Red Sox.

This is a big series for both clubs, but we think that Drew Pomeranz will benefit from familiar surroundings.

Jordan Montgomery: He’s 7-6 with a 3.94 ERA. Montgomery faced the Red Sox on Sunday and gave up one run off two hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision. Montgomery has been exceptional as a starter in his rookie year, but is still just 3-4 with a 4.14 ERA on the road. 

Pomeranz: He’s 12-4 with a 3.39 ERA. Pomeranz most recently gave up three runs while stirking out five over seven innings in a victory over the Yanks on Saturday. Pomeranz enters the final stages of the campaign firing on all cylinders, having won six straight decisions and nine of his last ten. Pomeranz has walked just four batters over his last three starts and note that he’s been particularly sharp at home this year by going 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA.

The bottom line: Note that New York is just 29-33 (-4.9 units) on the road this year, while Boston is 38-21 (+8.6 units) at home. The pressure is on the rookie in our opinion. All things considered, a very fair price. Play on the RED SOX.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOWOUT BEST BET on the Toronto Blue Jays.

We think that the surging JA Happ and the still Wildcard hopeful Toronto Blue Jays have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one.

Happ: He’s 6-8 with a 3.63 ERA. Happ most recently gave up one run off four hits and three walks while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Sunday. Happ allowed only four hits on the way to his third straight winning decision. Note that Happ has done well in this spot all year by going 5-3 with a 3.13 ERA in all “day” games.

Jake Arrieta: He’s 12-8 with a 3.73 ERA. Arrieta comes in off a win over Arizona on Sunday, allowing one earned run off three hits over six innings in a 7-2 victory on Sunday. Like his counterpart today, Arrieta has turned his campaign around of late, with solid numbers across the board.

The bottom line: Arrieta has been great, but not spectacular. We think these starters are a “wash.” The Cubs are coming off a deflating 13-10 loss yesterday at home to the Reds, while the Jays kept their slim wild card berth hopes alive with a crucial win over division rival Tampa yesteday afternoon. Toronto is starting to get huge production from its underachieving “big bats,” with slugger Josh Donaldson leading the way. Toronto is 25-19 (+3.7 units) in all “day” games, while Chicago is just 26-28 (-17 units) in all day contests. Great spot wager, play on the BLUE JAYS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Minnesota Vikings and the Seattle Seahawks. 

It’s impossible to go into precise player matchups in the preseason, as not even the head coaches know for sure how long starters and backups will play in each game. We’re primarily a stat and situationally based handicapping service anyways, so an approach like this is natural to us. Minnesota comes in off a 17-10 win in Week 1 at Buffalo and now transitions to the West Coast for a late night contest. Week 3 is the all important “dress rehearsal” and the Vikes will finish up the preseason with both games at home. We think Minnesota simply goes through the motions tonight as it looks to avoid any serious injuries to its backup and wannabe’s. Seattle on the other hand is off a 48-17 rout of the LA Chargers. LA played no defense whatsoever, but with that high-scoring rout in the rear-view mirror, we think the shift back home will turn the focus onto the defensive side of the ball for the Seahawks. Seattle once again finished among the defensive leaders in almost every statistical category last year and the unit will be a strength of the team again this season. The Hawks host the Chiefs in Week 3, so it wouldn’t be surprising either to see the home side getting caught “looking ahead” to that much more important matchup. The many external factors working against both sides make the UNDER the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports