Art Aronson – AAA Sports NBA Picks & Plays

This is a 10* on AUBURN

This game is in Fort Myers, very much on the “undercard” of Gonzaga-Kansas. Auburn went 25-6 a year ago. St. Joe’s was 6-26. Auburn is very much a program in “turmoil” right now. Not only did they lose their top six players from last season, but they are also a part of an ongoing FBI investigation. Still, we see no reason why we shouldn’t lay the points in this matchup. They are still a long and athletic team. St. Joe’s returns a lot more from last year, but that was a bad team (see record above). The Hawks are being picked to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic 10 again and aren’t going to be that improved in 2020-21. Because of the self-imposed postseason ban that was imposed earlier this week, we’re getting value on Auburn as bettors are seemingly willing to write this team off. That’s a mistake in our eyes. They are 7-1 ATS L8 neutral site games while St. Joseph’s is 1-3-1 ATS its last five. This number has come down much too far and Auburn is now a 10* play for us. Play on AUBURN

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This is an 8* on OVER

Gonzaga and Kansas would have been two of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament that was never played last March. The Zags were 31-2 and had already won the WCC Tournament when the season was paused. Kansas was 28-3 (Big 12 Tournament never played, on a 16-game win streak, and many thought they were the best team in the country. These two “blue-bloods” open the 2020-21 season against one another in Fort Myers. Gonzaga has won 30 or more games six of the last nine seasons including each of the last four. Some feel this is Mark Few’s best team ever. They are going to average a lot of points. Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard’s transfer was just granted (he can play immediately), so the roster is even more talented. Gonzaga averaged 87.4 points/game last season. Compared to last season, Kansas isn’t going to be as strong defensively as they were a year ago, due to a couple departures. The Jayhawks have gone Over five straight times as a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on AIR FORCE

The line has dropped for the Thanksgiving Day matchup between Colorado State-Air Force and we disagree with the move. Air Force, coming off a 28-0 shutout win, is a good value here at home against a Colorado State team that’s 0-2 on the road. Those two road losses were by 21 and 31 points so CSU needs a lot more help than this from the oddsmakers. Their only win this season came as a 3-point home underdog against Wyoming, a game which they were outgained 465-342. The key to that 34-24 victory was being +3 in turnovers. In a 52-21 loss at Boise State, they actually did have a slight edge in total yards. But that was irrelevant considering they were down 42-7 at halftime! The Rams were supposed to face UNLV last week, but that had to be called off because of COVID-19. Air Force is no stranger to COVID cancellations, having dealt with two of their own, but they still lead the nation in rushing offense with 336.5 yards/game. No other team averages more than 300. After posting a shutout last week, the Falcons defensive numbers are looking even better. They are 19th nationally in yards/game allowed and have held three of the four opponents to 17 points or less. Colorado State has lost five straight games where they were an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points and they covered just one of the five. Lay it. Play on AIR FORCE

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THIS IS AN 8* ON BALTIMORE

The Ravens experienced a COVID-19 outbreak on Monday, which will cause running backs JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram to miss this game on Thursday. Furthermore, injured DT Brandon Williams has been placed in quarantine. This seemingly could not have come at a worse time as the team has dropped three of its last four games including back to back losses for the first time since early last season. Now they face the 10-0 Steelers who won 28-24 in Baltimore earlier this month. But we’re looking at this as a “buy low” situation on the Ravens. Still one of the better teams in the league, they led Tennessee 21-10 in the third quarter on Sunday before losing in overtime. They’ve still got Lamar Jackson, last year’s MVP. Ingram isn’t a significant loss as he had just 7 yards rushing the last two games. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS the last four times they’ve been an underdog. The underdog is 19-7-3 ATS the past 29 meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and the road team has covered six of the last eight. This is the first time in a long while that the public seems “down” on the Ravens. We’re quite “thankful” though to be getting them at this price. An interesting tidbit on the Steelers is that only three teams have punted more times: the Jets, Bears & Eagles. So it’s been a real “boom or bust” for Big Ben and that group. Other than the 4-point win over Baltimore and a 3-point win over Tennessee, Pittsburgh has faced only one other team with a winning record (Cleveland). Take the points Thanksgiving night. Play on BALTIMORE

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This is a 10* on OVER

Washington and Dallas played five weeks ago and the Football Team emerged victorious by a score of 25-3. That may have been the low point of the season for the Cowboys. Backup Andy Dalton left the game with a concussion, rendering the offense helpless. But Dalton was back last week and led the team to a surprising 31-28 upset of the Vikings. A good sign moving forward is that Ezekiel Elliott had his first 100+ yard rushing game of the season. Dallas definitely will score more their second time facing the Washington defense. But of course their own defense remains a problem. It is giving up 31.8 points/game and has surrendered no fewer than 23 for nine straight contests. Washington is off a 20-9 win over Cincinnati and has looked really good over the last six quarters with Alex Smith playing QB. However, there is one caveat we’ve got to mention in regards to last week. The defense got real lucky with Bengals rookie Joe Burrow getting hurt. In the first half, Washington's defense didn’t force a single punt. The Over is 8-2 in the L10 meetings between these teams and 5-0 here in Dallas. Even though this is a battle of 3-7 teams on Thanksgiving, first place in the NFC East is on the line. The game will belong to the two offenses. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Detroit was just putrid last week in a 20-0 loss to Carolina. The offense was held below 200 yards as it gained just 3.4 yards per play. They had only 10 first downs for the game! There has to be some real doubt about Matt Patricia’s future as the head coach. That’s going to have an effect on the team’s motivation down the stretch. The Lions are 13-28-1 SU since he took over. The Panthers team that shut them out on Sunday was without its starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and star RB Christian McCaffery. PJ Walker, making his first ever NFL start, threw for 258 yards against the Lions defense. Injuries and COVID-19 have left the Lions short-handed on both sides of the ball. So look for the Texans to take advantage in this early Thanksgiving Day battle. We cashed Houston in a 27-20 win over the Patriots on Sunday as they improved to 3-7 on the year. With the likes of Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt, the Texans certainly look more formidable than the Panthers team that just embarrassed the Lions. Watson threw for 344 yards against the Patriots, his 5th 300-plus yard game of the season, and has a 11-0 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks. The Lions’ pass defense, as we saw last week against a 1st time starter, is poor. They rank 25th in the league, giving up 258.4 yards/game. Watt and the Texans defense were solid last week in allowing just 86 yards rushing. The Lions are just 4-12 on Thanksgiving since 2004 with eight losses by 10 or more. They are also on a 1-4 SU/ATS run as home underdogs of three points or less. Play on HOUSTON

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