Art Aronson – AAA Sports NBA Picks & Plays

This is a 10* play on OVER Chicago-Detroit

The Blackhawks have seen the Over hit in nine straight games now and the last one was the highest scoring yet as they beat Ottawa 8-7. That was a matchup of the two teams that have given up the most goals in the league. Here, Chicago will face a Detroit team that isn't quite as inept as Ottawa defensively, but is still bottom tier. So while we may not see another game with 15 goals scored, an Over is still a strong likelihood. During this nine-game Over stretch, Chicago has scored four or more goals itself seven times. They've scored at least five goals themselves six times. Detroit just got done playing a home and home against Philadelphia. They lost both games, one of them a 6-5 final. One positive for the Red Wings is that they are getting plenty of shots on goal of late. They've averaged 35.4 shots on goal the last five games. Not only have the last nine Chicago games gone Over the total, so too have 16 of the last 18. Add another to the list. Play OVER Chicago-Detroit

AAA

This is a 10* play on Fresno State

There's been a highly unusual pattern to emerge from past meetings between Air Force and Fresno State. Fresno State almost always wins (11 of the last 13 meetings), but Air Force usually leaves with the cash (10-2-1 ATS in those same 13 games). This pattern has really held true here in Fresno where the home team has won seven straight times, but the Flyboys have covered six of those times. With a double digit spread tonight, I can see how some might think this pattern will continue. However, I see something different unfolding, that being a lopsided win for FSU. This particular Air Force team is really bad on the road. They are 1-8 SU and averaging just 61.1 PPG. They've also only covered one of their last six games overall. Fresno State has won five of six, the lone exception being a one-point loss to Utah State. The Bulldogs average 78.2 points per game at home. Play on FRESNO STATE

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER in UNC-DUKE

The sport's greatest rivalry is renewed tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This is a big line for a battle of top eight teams, but Duke is #1 and the line does look to be about right. The total is also very high, also not surprising considering both teams topped 90 points the last time we saw them. But in a game where they're facing an opponent of roughly the same caliber, I can't see this being that high scoring. Both teams will score plenty. But Duke is holding teams to an average of 62.7 points per game at home and has a top five national defensive efficiency rating. The Under is a surprising 17-7 in all of their games and 17-5 when they are the favorite. They are also 14-3 Under after scoring more than 80 points their last game. UNC is 7-3 Under on the road and 8-4 Under in conference play. They have also gone Under 17 of the last 23 games with a total of 160 to 169.5 points. Play UNDER UNC-DUKE

AAA

This is an 8* play on MICHIGAN STATE

Michigan State comes into tonight a little shorthanded, but not shorthanded enough to the point where they can't blow out Rutgers. Already without Joshua Langford (done for year), the Spartans are now without Nick Ward for an indefinite period of time due to a hairline fracture in his shooting (left) hand. But like I said, Sparty should still roll tonight. All the way back on November 30th, they opened up Big 10 play with an easy 11-point victory over the Scarlet Knights, in New Jersey. While MSU is dealing with some physical injuries, Rutgers must somehow overcome the emotional toll of losing on a buzzer beater to Iowa on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in five games and they seem to be heading down the tubes. Michigan State is one of the few teams in the country talented enough to overcome injuries. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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