Jimmy Boyd’s NBA Picks Against the Spread

5* NO BRAINER on Braves +105

Atlanta is 87-61.

Philadelphia is 82-66.

The better team, at home, is plus money.

That's the price I want before we even get to the pitching.

The market is scared off by Braves starter Tyler Mahle's 5-10 record and 4.05 ERA.

Fair enough on the surface.

His 4.10 xERA says the season line is honest, not unlucky.

But the season line isn't what's showing up Saturday.

Over his last 5 starts, Mahle has allowed 5 earned runs in 30.1 innings, a 1.48 ERA.

That includes 6 shutout innings in Philadelphia on September 6.

The strongest case against this play is the lefty-heavy Phillies order: Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, Stott, Marsh, and Crawford, six left-handed bats.

Here's why it doesn't scare me.

Mahle just faced this exact group six days ago and gave up 4 hits and zero runs over 6 innings.

That's not a projection.

The tape is a week old.

Philadelphia's starting situation is the wobble on the other side.

It's spot-start territory, which puts a heavy load on the pen against a top of the order featuring Ronald Acuna, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley.

The injury ledger tilts the same way.

The Phillies have six players on the IL, including outfielders Johan Rojas and Adolis Garcia.

Atlanta's only absence is Lane Thomas.

One honest caveat: the forecast shows 100% precipitation chance at Truist Park.

A delay that shortens Mahle's night hurts.

But a bullpen game hurts Philadelphia more, and I'm getting paid plus money to hold the stronger roster.

I like the Braves

1* Free Pick on Sacramento State/Fresno State: under 45½

This total is about two offenses that both project among the worst in the country.

SP+ has Fresno State's offense 117th nationally at 18.1 and Sacramento State's 123rd at 16.6.

Those are projections built heavily on last season this early in the year, but when both units land that low, the direction is clear.

Neither team has played a game yet this season, so the case here is the matchup and the number, not form.

Sacramento State also makes this trip without starting QB Carson Conklin.

Backup Jackson Sharman gets the road start in the program's step up from the Big Sky to FBS ball, and he draws a Fresno State defense that projects 70th in SP+ at 25.7.

That is a bad spot for a capped offense.

The over case is real and worth addressing.

Sacramento State's defense projects 122nd at 35.7, and last season they got run on: Montana beat them 49-35 last October and they survived Northern Colorado 40-35 the week before.

Fresno State also lost safety Ryan Wilson for the season, thinning the back end.

Here's why that doesn't flip me.

A bad defense only fuels the over if the offense across from it can cash in, and Fresno State's attack projects 117th.

Units that low stall drives and settle for field goals.

Those Sacramento State shootouts came against Big Sky offenses with Conklin running their side of the scoreboard.

Neither condition exists Saturday.

Across six 2025 games Sacramento State averaged 36 points.

Take Conklin out and move them up a level, and that number is not walking through the door.

I like the Under

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Texas -1½

Texas is essentially a pick'em at home against Ohio State, and I think the wrong team is favored by the market's logic.

The case against Texas starts with Ohio State's defense.

The Buckeyes allowed just 11.2 points per game across the 10 games I have from 2025, and they've won both prior meetings with Texas.

That's real.

But it's last season's tape, and it didn't hold up down the stretch.

Ohio State closed 2025 losing two straight.

They scored 10 in a 13-10 home loss to Indiana in December, then managed 14 in a 24-14 New Year's Eve loss to Miami.

An elite defense doesn't save you when the offense can't crack 15 points against quality opponents.

Texas went the other direction.

They beat Texas A&M 27-17 at home in late November, then hung 41 on Michigan in a 41-27 win on New Year's Eve.

That's two quality wins to close the year, both in Austin.

The home angle matters here.

Texas won at home against San Jose State 38-7, Vanderbilt 34-31, A&M, and Michigan last season.

Their two losses came away from Austin.

Neither team has played a game in 2026, so everything above is projection off last year's rosters.

Week 1 is where the market leans hardest on old reputation.

Ohio State's number is built on a defense that already showed cracks in December.

Getting Texas at home for a field goal less than a hook is the value side.

I like Texas

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Oregon -23

This is a talent mismatch, and 23 points is not enough to close it.

Both teams are at zero games played this season, so the case starts with last year's tape.

Last season Oregon averaged 40.78 points a game and allowed just 17.11.

They shut out Texas Tech 23-0 on New Year's Day and rolled Minnesota 42-13 in November.

Rosters like that reload, they don't rebuild.

Oklahoma State is coming off a 1-11 season and blew the whole program up.

New head coach Eric Morris brought in an Air Raid system, North Texas transfer QB Drew Mestemaker, who threw for 4,379 yards in 2025, and more than 50 portal additions.

That overhaul is the strongest case against laying this number.

An offense nobody has film on can spring a backdoor cover.

Here's why I'm not buying it: 50-plus transfers means an offensive line with zero continuity, and Air Raid offenses die up front.

Oregon's front against a line that has never played a snap together is a problem for Stillwater.

Mestemaker's numbers came against Group of Five defenses.

This is a different level.

The heat is real, with a forecast heat index near 100 at kickoff.

That cuts both ways, and Oregon's depth handles a hot fourth quarter far better than a roster of newcomers.

Oregon's floor showed up in the 56-22 loss to Indiana in January.

That was against an elite team.

Oklahoma State is nowhere near that tier, and big favorites bury overmatched rebuilds in September.

I like Oregon

3* HEAVY HITTER on Michigan +5½

Neither team has played a snap yet in 2026, so this one comes down to the matchup and the number.

The number is what I like.

The case for Oklahoma is the defense, and it's legitimate.

Last season the Sooners allowed just 14.62 points a game, held Missouri to 6 in November and LSU to 13 a week later.

I'm not arguing with that unit.

Here's the problem.

Oklahoma's offense scored 17 in both of those wins.

They averaged 26.38 points a game last season and their formula was winning ugly.

That profile keeps games tight.

It does not cover 5.5 on the road at noon in Ann Arbor.

Michigan actually outscored Oklahoma on average last season, 28.71 to 26.38.

And this program was stingy at home: Wisconsin managed 10 in October, Washington managed 7 a couple weeks later.

Yes, Texas hung 41 on them in the bowl game, but that was on the road against a top offense, not in the Big House.

Oklahoma's protection is a question too.

Sooners left tackle Michael Fasusi has been limited in practice with a sore shoulder and may not play full snaps.

Getting center Jake Maikkula back helps inside, but the edge is where Michigan wins.

The real risk is Michigan QB Bryce Underwood handling Brent Venables' pressure without giving the ball away.

Fair concern.

But with a total in the low 40s, Michigan can lose this game outright and still cash the ticket.

That's the bet: a live home dog getting nearly a touchdown in a rock fight.

I like Michigan

5* NO BRAINER on Montreal PK

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

4* VEGAS INSIDER on South Florida/Army: under 47½

This total is priced on last season's South Florida offense.

That offense doesn't exist anymore.

Neither team has played a 2026 game yet, so the tape we have is last year's.

Army's version of last year is exactly what you want on an under.

The Black Knights averaged 22.1 points scored and 18.5 allowed across the 10 games I have logged from 2025.

At home, Army turns games into slogs.

They beat Temple 14-13 last November, 27 total points.

They lost 17-16 at Navy in December, 33 total.

When Army controls the clock, there simply aren't enough possessions to reach the upper 40s.

The obvious pushback is South Florida.

The Bulls averaged 43.5 a game over 8 games last season and played shootouts like the 63-36 win over North Texas and the 41-38 loss at Navy.

Fair point.

But that was Alex Golesh's tempo offense, and Golesh is at Auburn now.

Brian Hartline is installing a new system, and a road noon kick at West Point against a defense built to shorten games is a rough spot to debut it.

Even if USF's talent travels, Army caps the ceiling.

The triple option milks the clock whether they're ahead or behind, and it kept UConn to a 57-point total last season in a game Army won 41-16 going away.

The market agrees.

This number has moved down to 46.5 at most shops, so holding 47.5 at -105 is a full point better than where the game will close.

New coach, road opener, pace-killing opponent, closing line value in hand.

I like the Under

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss/Auburn: over 54½

Auburn gets a Southern Miss defense that couldn't stop anybody last season, and that's the whole story on this total.

Both teams come in with zero games played this season, so this is a matchup and price read built on last year's tape.

That's fine.

The tape is clear.

Southern Miss gave up 27.5 points a game across the four games I charted last season, including 34 to Mississippi State in the August opener.

Auburn's talent level is a clear step up from most of what Southern Miss faced in the Sun Belt.

Auburn showed its ceiling last October, hanging 33 on Arkansas on the road in a game that landed on 57 total points.

Give this offense a soft defense and the points come.

The best case against the over is Southern Miss's own offense.

They averaged just 19.5 a game last season and none of those four games cleared 51 total points.

Fair point.

But this number doesn't need Southern Miss to carry weight.

It needs Auburn in the high 30s and the Golden Eagles to scrape together 17 to 20.

They scored 27 at Arkansas State last November, so double digits on the road is not a stretch.

Blowout dynamics help too.

Big leads bring garbage-time drives, backup defenders in soft coverage, and short fields late.

At 54.5, Auburn alone can eat most of this number against a defense this leaky.

Southern Miss just has to show up and score a little.

I like the Over

3* HEAVY HITTER on Purdue +164

Purdue at +164 as a home dog implies about 37.9%.

That number is the whole play here, so let's see if it holds up.

First, the ugly part.

Purdue was bad last season.

They gave up 35.57 points a game, Indiana ran them off the field 56-3 last November, and Ohio State beat them 34-10 the week before that.

That's the case against this bet and it's a real one.

But that team isn't the one taking the field Saturday.

Neither side has played a game yet this season.

In the portal era, year-over-year carryover is thinner than ever, and the books are still pricing Purdue like it's last November.

Wake Forest earned favorite status with last season's work: 29.12 points a game and a 43-29 bowl win over Mississippi State in January.

Fair enough.

But that same team allowed 25 points a game and got run out of Durham 49-32 by Duke late last season.

Now that defense travels out of conference to Ross-Ade for a noon kick.

Purdue's offense showed a pulse in the right spots too.

They put up 30 at Notre Dame last September and hung 27 on Illinois, both in losses, but proof the scoring ceiling exists.

Against a defense that leaked 25 a game, they don't need to be great.

They need to be functional.

You make money when you buy, not when you sell.

Purdue only has to win this spot 38% of the time to make +164 profitable.

Home dog, season opener, favorite proving nothing yet on the road.

That's a price I'll take.

I like Purdue

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Old Dominion/Virginia Tech: under 51

Old Dominion set the tone with defense all last year, and the offense it brings to Blacksburg is built to bleed clock, not chase points.

Start with the Monarchs' defense.

Over a 6-game stretch to close 2025 they allowed 13 points per game.

They shut out Troy 33-0 in November, held Georgia State to 10 later that month, then capped the year with a 24-10 bowl win over South Florida in December.

The offense that hung 45 on Virginia Tech in last year's meeting is gone.

Colton Joseph took his arm to Wisconsin and the top receivers left with him.

New quarterback Quinn Henicle is a runner first: he led Old Dominion with 68 rushing yards and 2 ground touchdowns in the Week 1 opener.

Run-first, ball-control football shortens games and shrinks possessions.

The obvious counter is Virginia Tech dropping 73 points and 619 yards on VMI in James Franklin's debut.

I am not paying for that number.

VMI is an FCS program.

This same Hokies offense averaged 24.17 points over its final 6 games last season while going 2-4, and 73 against VMI tells me nothing about what they do against a defense that held real opponents to 13 a game.

Virginia Tech's front helps the under too.

The Hokies piled up 18 tackles for loss in Week 1, and negative plays kill drives on both sides of a ball-control game.

Both teams are one game into 2026, so I am betting the matchup and the number.

Run-heavy visitor, stout visiting defense, noon kick. 51 is too many points.

I like the Under

5* NO BRAINER on Texas State -105

Both of these teams open their 2026 season Saturday, so this one comes down to last year's tape and the price.

Both favor Texas State.

Start with the head-to-head.

Texas State is 2-0 against UTSA, and last September the Bobcats went into San Antonio and won 43-36.

Now they get the rematch at home in San Marcos.

The offense travels year to year in this program.

Texas State averaged 37 points a game across the 2025 games I tracked, closing the year with a 49-26 win over South Alabama and a 41-10 bowl rout of Rice.

UTSA's defense is the soft spot.

The Roadrunners allowed 27.62 points a game last season and got run off the field 55-23 at South Florida in November.

Texas State hung 43 on this same defense a year ago.

The fair pushback: UTSA can score too, averaging 31.75 a game last season, and Texas State's defense gave up 26.5 per game across the games I tracked, including 36 to UTSA in that head-to-head win.

I don't dispute any of it.

This projects as a shootout.

But at a moneyline of -105, I don't need Texas State to win with defense.

I need them to win a track meet at home, and they outscored UTSA in exactly that kind of game last September, on the road.

That's the whole case.

The better offense against the leakier defense, a 2-0 series edge, home field, and essentially no juice on the price.

When the matchup and the number both point the same way, I take it.

I like Texas State