Steve Merril NBA Picks

The Lakers played in a wild, high-scoring game last night in Golden St. Los Angeles won 124-121, but the pace and the way the game played out will leave the Lakers a bit short tonight on this back-to-back set in Sacramento. LA jumped out to a 39-32 lead after the first quarter, but their lead was wiped away after the Warriors won the second quarter by 13 points (33-20). So the Lakers were down by 6 points at the half despite having a whopping 59 points on the board.

That’s a negative sign for Los Angeles’ defense, and without rest for tonight, they haven’t had a chance to rectify their defensive problems. And because they came back and won last night after a 35-22 third quarter, the Lakers may overlook the fact that their defense is in need of a fix. And that is not a good thing because Sacramento is playing much better basketball right now. The Kings are just 5-5 over their last ten ballgames, but they’ve covered the pointspread in eight of those ten games. Aside from a double digit loss to Portland, their four other losses have all come by 8 points or less which means they were in a position to win those games late.

They come into tonight off an impressive 114-100 win over Minnesota in which they actually held a 29-point lead. The Kings also match-up well with the Lakers as the two games this season ended in just a one point loss in Los Angeles and a heartbreaking 9-point home overtime loss back in December. With the last six Lakers’ games showing three losses and three wins by only 3, 6, and 2 points there’s some good value in taking Sacramento as a home underdog in this spot.

Play KINGS (+).

There’s no reason for North Carolina to be excited about playing in this game tonight. The Tar Heels won the national championship last year, so for them to go from the ultimate high of college basketball to missing the tournament completely this year is almost impossible to get over. And the university actually moved this game from their on-campus Dean Smith Center to the off-site Carmichael Arena. The Tar Heels haven’t played a game in this venue since 1986, but with a lack of fan support after the disappointing season, the university had to relocate the game to a smaller building. Tickets for tonight’s game are only going for $5 each which is another sign that North Carolina is desperate to get enough people into the seats.

While North Carolina has no interest in this game, William & Mary is ecstatic and they’ve got plenty of motivation to play a big name school like UNC. William & Mary was on the NCAA tournament bubble, but in reality they knew they were not going to get an at-large bid. So a spot in the NIT against a traditional national powerhouse like North Carolina gives the Tribe a shot to show the country that they can definitely play with the big boys.

The Tribe is a dangerous underdog as they are a veteran and experienced team that won outright at both Maryland (+13) and Wake Forest (+17) this season. Those two wins prove that this team can play and win on the road against ACC teams. Maryland and Wake Forest are both in the Big Dance so there’s no reason why the Tribe can’t hold their own tonight against a floundering North Carolina team. W&M has also been a much stronger play this season as an underdog (14-3 ATS), and in fact, the underdog is now an incredible 20-6 ATS in all William & Mary games this season.

This is also a favorable match-up for William & Mary as they will look to grind North Carolina into a slow, half-court game. And when playing slow teams that can keep the score low, the Tar Heels have proven they cannot play in these types of games this season. When held to less than 70 points, North Carolina went just 1-10 SU and 0-11 ATS this season. So if we combine that with the impressive underdog numbers above, we have a strong 31-6 ATS spread pattern that favors the underdog Tribe tonight.

Play WILLIAM & MARY (+).