Steve Merril NBA Picks

The Braves offense has found their stroke this week scoring 48 runs in their last six games. They'll play game 3 of their series with the Mets on Wednesday night. Mike Pelfrey has faced the Braves four times this season going 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA. The problem for Pelfrey is that he has given up 32 hits in 21.1 innings pitched against Atlanta. Brian McCann (18-37), Martin Prado (7-16), Omar Infante (5-12), Eric Hinske (4-8), Rick Ankiel (2-7), and Alex Gonzalez (1-3) all hit Pelfrey well. The Braves have gone Over the total in four straight games and Over in 8 of their last 10 games. They are hitting nearly .300 as a unit in their last eight games. The Mets bullpen has an ERA near 4.70 on the road so that will help the Over when Pelfrey struggles.

Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson has been struggling as of late. He's 0-2 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three games giving up 13 runs and 20 hits in 17 innings pitched. Hanson’s last time out against the Mets, he gave up two runs and seven hits in 5.7 innings in New York. Angel Pagan (2-7), Luis Castillo (2-5), and Josh Thole (2-5) have had the most success in limited at-bats against Hanson. The Mets have gone Over the total in four of their last eight games. With such a low total posted, we see tremendous value in playing this game Over the small number.

Play OVER the total.

New York's offense has found their stride at home against the Athletics. The Yankees have pounded out 20 runs in the first two games of this series. Game 3 will feature lefty Brett Anderson for Oakland. He's 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA in his six road starts. The lefty has given up nine runs and 21 hits over his last 15 innings pitched. Anderson is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees. All three starts came last year with Anderson giving up 12 runs and 24 hits in 19 innings pitched. Derek Jeter (5-10), Mark Teixeira (3-9), Robinson Cano (3-9), Jorge Posada (2-6), and Austin Kearns (1-3) all hit Anderson well. The Yankees have gone Over the total in 37 of their 66 home games where they are scoring 6.1 runs per game. They are hitting .300 in their last eight games with five of those games going Over the total. Oakland's bullpen struggles on the road sporting an ERA near 4.80.

A.J. Burnett's rotation spot may be in danger if he continues to pitch poorly. Burnett's last two starts have been terrible. The righty has given up 15 runs and 20 hits in his last 10.3 innings of work. He's 9-12 with a 5.17 ERA in 26 outings overall. He's 3-3 with a 3.81 ERA in eight starts against the A's in his career. Kurt Suzuki (4-15), Gabe Gross (4-13), Daric Barton (3-9) and, Kevin Kouzmanoff (1-3) all hit Burnett well. Oakland has gone Over the total in three straight games and Over in four of their last five games overall. They have scored at least 3 runs or more in five straight games. The Yankees bullpen has an ERA over 4.00 at home having blown seven saves as well. With both offenses in good current form, we expect a high-scoring game tonight between the A’s and Yankees.

Play OVER the total.