Steve Merril NBA Picks

Boston has really amped-up their defensive intensity recently. The Celtics have held their last three opponents to 86 points or less; those three teams shot a combined 43.1% (95-220) from the field and an eye-popping 13.8% (5-36) from three-point land. That’s some serious defense, and Boston should carry it over to tonight because the Celtics have already proven they can force Milwaukee into a bad offensive game.

When these two met back in early December, the Celtics held the Bucks to just 89 points. Milwaukee was only able to shoot 43% from the field in that game and a miserable 26.7% (4-15) from three-point land. And that game was no fluke because the Celtics have held the Bucks to 89 points or less in four of the last five meetings.

Milwaukee is also playing some terrific defense as of late. The Bucks have held their last three opponents to 87 points or less, and their last five opponents to 92 points or less in regulation time. All five of those games have also played Under tonight’s total in regulation time, and with Boston focusing more on the defensive end rather than offense, we expect the Bucks recent run of low-scoring games to continue. With both defenses is great current form, we anticipate a half-court game with points being hard to come by.

Play UNDER the total.

Providence is on a ten-game losing streak. But look who they have played; Syracuse twice, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, and Pittsburgh. That’s the Big East gauntlet, and with Providence less talented than those teams, the losses are forgivable. And they were actually unfortunate in both of their most recent games against South Florida and Seton Hall.

At South Florida, the Friars led virtually wire to wire before a complete meltdown happened in the final seconds of the game. The Friars led 93-92 with 14 seconds left to play when South Florida’s Dominique Jones went coast to coast and hit a layup. A foul was also called which infuriated Providence, and their outburst led to a technical foul. After all was said and done, Providence lost 99-93 in a very misleading final score.

Saturday night against Seton Hall, Providence did not play anywhere close to their best, and still were in the game. Senior Brian McKenzie left just seven minutes into the ballgame after twisting his foot which forced a freshman into the game who hadn’t played a minute in over a month. And Providence’s best player, Jamine Peterson played his worst game of the season scoring just 6 points on 2 of 8 shooting while pulling down just 4 boards; Peterson averages 19 points and 10 rebounds per game. Providence shot just 38.5% for the game while Seton Hall shot 50.8%, and considering the other issues the Friars had, a 92-80 loss is not as bad as it looks.

Tonight’s pointspread is also too high because Seton Hall was just a one-point favorite in the most recent meeting. So getting five more points tonight on a neutral court certainly presents some outstanding value. Many have Seton Hall in the NCAA tournament regardless of how they perform in the Big East tournament, and if the players are listening to that talk, there’s plenty of reason for them to be a bit short on focus, especially after just beating Providence 3 nights ago. The Friars and Pirates are equals on the talent level, and only because of Providence’s recent losing streak are we able to take a handful of points in this game tonight.

Play PROVIDENCE (+).