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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 21, 2014
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
-5½-109
  at  PINNACLE
in 2h

Free Pick on Philadelphia Eagles -

I'm taking the Eagles to cover at home over the Redskins. Philadelphia has yet to play a complete game and I believe it's got them undervalued at home in a division matchup against Washington. The Redskins are getting some love here after that impressive win over the Jaguars, but I'm not sold on this team being a serious contender. That doesn't cover up their ugly loss to the Texans in Week 1, where they managed to score just 6 points.

Last year the Eagles offense had no problem moving the ball against the Redskins defense. Philly put up 443 yards and 33 points in the first meeting and 402 yards and 24 points in the second matchup. They showed they could move the ball both through the air and on the ground. They had 263 rushing yards in one game and 276 yards passing in the other.

I know Washington's defense has looked strong early, but that's largely due to who they have played. Houston has been one of the most conservative offenses through the first two weeks and there's no explanation needed for Jacksonville. They have been one of the worst offensive teams for a several years.

Another big key that is getting overlooked is the Eagles are a better defensive team than they get credit for and will be going up against a Redskins team that lost starting quarterback RGII and could potentially be without wide out DeSean Jackson, who is questionable with a shoulder injury.

Taking the points with Washington has not been a wise investment lately. The Redskins are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games when listed as an underdog. Washington is also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 versus the NFC, 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 250 or less total yards, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 following a SU win. Take Philadelphia!

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 20, 2014
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
-135
  at  5DIMES
Lost
$135.0
Play Type: Premium

3* MLB No Doubt Rout on Pirates -

Pittsburgh is showing some decent value here at home against the Brewers. The Pirates got a huge 3-2 win over Milwaukee last night thanks to a 3-run bomb by Russell Martin in the 8th inning. It was Pittsburgh's 5th straight win overall and their 12th in their last 14 overall. While the Pirates are playing with all kinds of confidence, the realization of missing the playoffs after such a great start is setting in for the Brewers. Milwaukee sits 4.5-games back of the Pirates for the final Wild Card spot in the NL with just 8 games to play.

Pittsburgh has a big edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Edinson Volquez against the Brewers Matt Garza. Volquez comes in with a 3.34 ERA over 16 home starts and a 1.86 ERA and 1.138 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Garza on the other hand has a 5.02 ERA over 12 road starts and a 5.54 ERA and 1.769 WHIP over his last 3 outings. In Garza's 2 starts versus the Pirates this season, he's allowed 9 runs on 14 hits and 8 walks in just 11 innings of work.

There's a strong system here telling us to fade the Brewers. Underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, after a game where they bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more runs are just 64-137 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Pirates. Take Pittsburgh!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
North Carolina vs. East Carolina
North Carolina
+3-110
  at  BOVADA
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Free

Free Pick on North Carolina Tar Heels +

We are seeing a huge over-reaction by the books in this one, as North Carolina would have almost certainly been favored here or at least a pick'em if it wasn't for East Carolina coming off that huge upset win on the road over Virginia Tech. As impressive as that win was for the Pirates, they caught the Hokies in a perfect spot off that huge win at Ohio State. It was a clear letdown spot for Virginia Tech and now I'm expecting to see the same thing happen this week with East Carolina suffering a letdown.

Not only are the Pirates off a huge game against the Hokies, but they went up against SEC foe South Carolina the week prior. They played the Gamecocks closer than expected and I just don't think they will have enough left in the tank against what is going to be a motivated and well rested Tar Heels team.

North Carolina will be coming into this game off a bye, plus they will be out for revenge after getting embarrassed at home last year by East Carolina 31-55 as a 12-point favorite. That contest came early in the year during the Tar Heels 1-5 start and before quarterback Marquise Williams took over. Williams helped turn North Carolina's season around, as the Tar Heels closed out 5-1 to make a bowl.

Covering against quality opponents isn't exactly something the Pirates have exceeded at in the past, as they are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record. East Carolina is also just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after playing two straight non-conference games. That's a 81% (26-6) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!

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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Bowling Green vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin
-26½-115
  at  BMAKER
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF No Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -

This line opened up at Wisconsin -21.5, but has since been bet up to the Badgers -26.5. For good reason. Wisconsin is hands down the better team in this matchup and should have no problem winning here by at least 4 touchdowns. Bowling Green did manage an impressive win over Indiana last week at home, but they also invested a lot of energy into that game, as they were out for some serious revenge after losing to the Hoosiers by 32-points the previous year.

In the Falcons only road game so far this season, they lost by 28-points to Western Kentucky. That's a pretty good sign that Bowling Green is not as good as they were a year ago and I believe a huge step up competition will show big time on Saturday.

Keep in mind that the Falcons have already lost starting quarterback Matt Johnson for the season and are really hurting defensively right now with injuries. Starting free safety Ryland Ward and weak-side linebacker D.J. Lynch are not expected to play, which is big when you consider they were two of only 5 starters back on that side of the ball and the top two tacklers on the team a year ago. They could also be without defensive tackle Zach Colvin and corner Darrell Hunter, who are both listed as questionable.

Wisconsin is not a team that you want to face at less than full strength, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Badgers have a massive offensive line that should be able to dominate this game and allow them to put up huge numbers on the ground, especially after watching the Falcons give up 235 yards and 6.4 yards/carry on the ground last week to Indiana.

Defensively the Badgers are rock solid and should have no problem keeping Bowling Green's offense in check enough to cover here rather easily. I got Wisconsin scoring 40+ in this one rather easily, which should be plenty to cover this spread.

Wisconsin is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after a home blowout win by 28+ points! We also see that home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points off a bye week are 44-9 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 83% system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
Total
64½ ov-110
  at  PINNACLE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* Oklahoma/West Virginia NCAAF Over/Under Main Event on OVER

The last time these two teams faced off in Morgantown they combined for 99 points and I'm expecting another shootout in 2014. West Virginia has looked as impressive as any team in the country on the offensive side of the ball. The Mountaineers come in ranked 13th in total offense at 564.3 ypg and are 4th in passing behind the emergence of senior quarterback Clint Trickett. That's saying something when you consider one of their games came against Alabama.

Oklahoma has been no slouch on the offensive side of the ball either, the Sooners bring a well balanced attack into this one, which ranks 34th in passing (293.3 ypg) and 42nd in rushing (196.7 ypg). They are also 15th in scoring at 44.7 ppg. West Virginia's defense simply doesn't have the talent to contain Oklahoma. Just this past week they gave up 37 points and 447 yards of total offense to Maryland, including a 163 yards rushing (6.0 ypc).

The Sooners defense enters a respectable 19th in the nation, only giving up 295.3 ypg, but this is without a doubt the best offense they have faced to date. The big key here is that the strength of Oklahoma's defense is their ability to stop the run. West Virginia is a pass-first team and I look for them to rack up a bunch of big plays down the field. If the Mountaineers can throw for 365 yards on Alabama, I got no reason to believe they can't top 400 against the Sooners.

Adding to that is that because West Virginia doesn't run the ball and look for big plays in the passing game, it's going to lead to some quick scores and more importantly stretch this game out and give each team more possessions to work with. Keep in mind that Oklahoma will be without leading rusher Keith Ford, which should have them throwing a little more than normal.

The OVER is 13-3 in West Virginia's last 16 home games against teams who average 250 or passing yards, 23-9 in their last 32 home games after going over the total last time out and 9-1 in their last 10 after throwing for 325+ yards in 2 consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 78% (45-13) system. Take the OVER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Army vs. Wake Forest
Total
47 un-105
  at  5DIMES
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Army/Wake Forest UNDER

I'm expecting an offensive struggle in Saturday's matchup between Wake Forest and Army. These two teams played last year and combined for 36 points. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw even less scoring this time around. Wake Forest is one of the worst offensive teams in the country. In fact, they rank 123rd in the country in total offense, averaging just 237.7 ypg. Army put up 47 points against Buffalo in their opener, but they were shutout and managed just 207 total yards last week against Stanford.

They big key here is that while Wake Forest has been awful on offense, they have looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball in the first year under head coach Dave Clawson. The Demon Deacons rank 17th in the nation in total defense, giving up just 291.3 ypg. Most importantly against a team like Army who basically only runs the ball, is that Wake Forest is giving up just 2.7 yards per rush attempt.

I'm expecting both teams to come in focused on establishing the running game, which should limit possessions for both teams and eat up a lot of clock without much scoring. Exactly what you are looking for to go UNDER the total.

UNDER is 20-7 in the last 27 games Clawson has coached on his team's home field and 32-16 in Wake Forest's last 48 non-conference games. It's also 23-8 in the Demon Deacon's last 31 games overall and 6-1 in their last 7 home games. These trends combine to form a 72% (81-32) system. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Virginia vs. BYU
Total
48 un-115
  at  BOVADA
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Total Annihilator on Virginia/BYU UNDER

The total for Saturday's rematch between BYU and Virginia has been set too high. These two teams played at Virginia last season and combined for just 35 points and 585 yards of total offense and that was with the two teams scoring 16 points in the 4th quarter.

BYU has looked impressive on the offensive side of the ball, thanks in large part to play of junior quarterback Taysom Hill, who has thrown for 689 yards and 4 touchdowns and rushed for another 356 yards and 6 scores. It's no secret that the key to slowing down the Cougars is to keep Hill in check. Virginia did an excellent job of doing just that last year. Hill completed just 13 or 40 pass attempts for 175 yards and was held to 44 rushing yards on 11 carries.

With 9 starters back on the defensive side of the ball and two impressive performances already this season against the likes of UCLA and Louisville, I look for Virginia to have another strong showing defensively in this one.

While the defense looks to be in good shape, I don't see the Cavaliers' having much success offensively against a talented BYU defense that comes in allowing just 14.0 ppg on 313 yards/game. The Cougars have been especially strong against the run, giving up just 2.1 yards/carry. Virginia's offense comes in ranked 97th in passing (203.3 ypg) and 96th in rushing (130.3 ypg). Their best player is senior running back Kevin Parks and when he's not able to get going this team really has a difficult time moving the ball.

The UNDER is 20-8 in Virginia's last 28 games against a team that's allowing 2.75 or less rushing yards/attempt and 14-4 in their last 18 against excellent ball control teams who average 32 or more minutes of possession. The UNDER is also 10-1 in BYU's last 11 after gaining 300 or more rushing yards and 6-0 in their last 6 versus teams who are completing 62% or better of their pass attempts. These trends combine to form a 79% (50-13) system. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
San Jose State vs. Minnesota
Minnesota
-9½-115
  at  BMAKER
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Non-Conference Vegas Insider on Minnesota -

I got no problem laying 9.5-points on the Golden Gophers in this one. Minnesota crushed San Jose State 43-24 at home last year and I'm expecting an even bigger blowout this time around. Minnesota has 15 starters back, while the Spartans only return 13. More importantly San Jose State lost their star quarterback David Fales, who left as their all-time leading passer. They also had to part ways with leading wide out Chandler Jones, who departed 2nd on San Jose State's all-time receiving list.

I actually think the line here has been set too low based off Minnesota's ugly 7-30 loss last week at TCU. The Horned Frogs may have only went 4-8 last year, but are one of the most improved teams in the country and I wasn't surprised at all to see the Golden Gophers struggle on the road. That loss should have Minnesota extremely motivated to bounce back with a win, as they know their chances of making a bowl go up drastically if they open up at 3-1.

While Minnesota comes in a bit undervalued, I don't believe the public has caught on to just how bad a shape San Jose State is in. The Spartans won convincingly at home against North Dakota in their opener, but lost the following week by 46-points at Auburn. Even though that was an ugly loss, no one was really expecting the Spartans to keep it close against an SEC power. However, if you look back to last year, this team went on the road and only lost to Stanford 13-34. That right there shows you just how much they have fallen.

I'm also not concerned with San Jose Stand coming off a bye. The Spartans are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. Adding to this is that Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs the MWC and 7-2 in their last 9 off a loss by more than 20 points. These trend combine to form a 76% (28-9) system in favor of the Golden Gophers. Take Minnesota!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Florida vs. Alabama
Total
51 un-110
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* Florida/Alabama SEC Total Dominator on UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle Saturday between Florida and Alabama. The Crimson Tide have not been as explosive offensively their 42.0 ppg would suggest. They scored just 33 in the opener against West Virginia, who is the only legit competition they have faced. Florida is a strong defensive team that has 7 returning starters and matches up well with Alabama's offense.

The Gators are strong up front, as they come in allowing just 2.4 yards/rush. I look for them to keep Alabama's high-powered rushing attack in check and really make the Crimson Tide work offensively to move the ball down the field. That should have Alabama eating up a lot of possession. The other key here is that the Crimson Tide have basically only involved star wide out Amari Cooper in the passing game. He leads the nation with 33 receptions and that's 24 more receptions than the next closest player. Florida has the perfect weapon to slow Cooper down and that's stud sophomore corner Vernon Hargreaves.

On the other side of the ball, there's not a lot of explanation needed to why Alabama should be able to keep the Gators offense in check. The Crimson Tide are loaded with talent on the stop unit once again and Florida's offense is nothing to write home about. The Gators only managed to score 20-points in regulation last week against SEC bottom feeder Kentucky at home. Not only will this be their first road test of the season, but it's one of the most difficult places in the entire country to play.

Each of the previous 3 meetings between these two schools at Bryant-Denny Stadium have finished UNDER the total and the two haven't combined for more than 51 points in a game since 1999.

UNDER is 9-1 in Alabama's last 10 games after scoring 50 or points last time out, 34-15 in their last 49 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points and 22-7 in Florida's last 29 off a home game where they failed to cover in a straight up win. These trends combine to form a % 74% (65-23) system. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Georgia Southern vs. South Alabama
Georgia Southern
-2½-120
  at  BETONLINE
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month on Georgia Southern -

Georgia Southern is one of the best kept secrets and I look for them to have no problem going on the road and beating South Alabama by at least a field goal. In fact, I'm expecting the Eagles to win here by double-digits.

Georgia Southern enters this game with an overall record of just 1-2, but could very easily be 3-0 with two huge upset wins. The Eagles lost 23-34 at NC State as a 20.5-point underdog on a 35-yard touchdown pass with less than 2 minutes to play. They also fell 38-42 at Georgia Tech as a 15.5-point underdog, once again losing in the final seconds. In their only other game against FCS Savannah State, they murdered them 83-9.

South Alabama simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep this one close. The Jaguars come in 79th in the country in passing (224.5 ypg) and 102nd in rushing (121.5 ypg). Their defense isn't bad, but Georgia Southern's option/spread attack is extremely hard to defend, especially if you have never faced it before. The Eagles rank 2nd in the country in rushing at 364.3 ypg and while they don't pass a lot they are capable of picking up big gains through the air.

Just not enough public recognition on Georgia Southern, who just converted from FCS to FBS this season, which is why we are catching such a great line with them only laying a field goal.

Solid system in play here as we see that conference games where one team averages 4.8 or more yards per rush attempt against a team that struggles to run the ball (3.0-3.5 ypc) are 74-32 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Eagles. Take Georgia Southern!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Utah State vs. Arkansas State
Total
50 un-110
  at  BMAKER
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAF Over/Under NO LIMIT Total Top Play on Utah St/Arkansas St UNDER

The books have simply not adjusted this total enough. Utah State will be playing this game without star quarterback Chuckie Keeton and Arkansas State will be without their best rusher in Michael Gordon. Keeton was one of just 3 returning starters for the Aggies on the offensive side of the ball and he's without a doubt their best player.

It's also important to note that both of these teams have not been impressive offensively so far in 2014. Utah State ranks 100th in passing (197.0 ypg) and 76th in rushing (157.0 ypg), while Arkansas State is just 73rd in passing (230.0 ypg) and 61st in rushing (172.3 ypg).

Offensively both of these teams focus more on the running game and that sets up well for both defenses. Utah State is only giving up 62 ypg on a mere 2 yards/rush. Arkansas State on the other hand is only allowing 2.0 yards/carry at home and are in a great spot not having to worry about Keeton.

The UNDER is 12-3 in Utah State's last 15 road games after playing 2 straight non-conference games, 10-2 in the Aggies last 12 after two or more straight wins and 16-6 in Arkansas State's last 22 games after gaining 100 or less rushing yards. These trends combine for a 76% (38-11) system. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Iowa vs. Pittsburgh
Iowa
+7-107
  at  5DIMES
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Iowa +

I know the Hawkeyes haven't looked great to start the year and are coming off an ugly loss at home to in-state rival Iowa State, but Iowa has a history of playing down to their competition under head coach Kirk Ferentz, which is a big reason why the Hawkeyes are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 games following a SU loss. Iowa always finds a way to bounce back and you have to love that with the inflated line we are working with. This game was set at a pick'em before the season started, which essentially has us getting a free 7-points.

Pittsburgh comes in at 3-0, but the Panthers haven't exactly played anybody. They opened with a cupcake game against FCS Delware and followed that up with a couple of easy road games versus Boston College and FIU. While they ended up beating FIU by a final of 42-25, they actually trailed 16-0 in the 1st quarter, which is not a sign of a good team.

Those that have watched Pittsburgh, are well aware of the fact that the Panthers' focus offensively is to run the football with talented sophomore James Conner. Pittsburgh is 5th in the country in rushing at 344.3 ypg and Conner is ranked 2nd nationally with 544 yards. That's some impressive numbers, but that came against weak competition. The strength of the Iowa defense is their ability to shutdown the run behind a talented defensive line. Iowa is only giving up 66 ypg on the ground and allowing a mere 2.3 yards/carry.

Simply put, this is a great matchup for Iowa on the defensive side of the ball. Adding to this is the fact that Iowa is an incredible 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games against teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards per game and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 versus teams averaging 37 or more points/game. These two trends combine to form a Dynamite 83% (35-7) system in favor of the Hawkeyes! Take Iowa!

PREMIUM PICK STREAKS

Basketball Picks (+11827)  1548-1323  L2871 54%

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NFL Sides (+1896)  48-27  L75 64%

MLB Run Lines (+823)  61-51  L112 54%

SERVICE BIO

Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come. Here are a few of his top plays:

No Brainer: This is one of Jimmy’s highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this play’s title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays.

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#1 – 2007 MLB #1 – 2008-09 BASKETBALL #2 – 2008-09 CBB #3 – 2008-09 NBA #4 -- 2013-14 CBB #6 – 2011-12 NBA  #7 – 2009 ALL SPORTS #9 – 2009-10 NBA #10 – 2011 MLB #10 – 2011-12 BASKETBALL #10 – 2010-11 NBA #10 – 2012-13 CBB



Jimmy Boyd of Locksmith Sports is the most reconciled sports information analyst across each of the major sports that the handicapping field has to provide. His 2007 MLB World Handicapping title, earning $1,000 bettors over 50 grand brings a new top place finish to his list of handicapping achievements through the previous ten years! Jimmy's situational and matchup analysis is second to none. He pitches his ideas daily in his particular game accounts so that his members know exactly how much he likes a team and why he likes that team. This previous collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law graduate will help find you come out on top in every sport he covers. Jimmy's top-notch sports choices with superior writeups establish him as a leading force in the handicapping industry for a long time to come. Jimmy is one of the very few cappers that has actually made the stripes to be considered as a top industry participant. He invites you to discover out for yourself. Sign up now and start winning exclusively with Jimmy Boyd!