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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Oct 18, 2014
St Louis Blues vs. Arizona Coyotes
St Louis Blues
-133
  at  5DIMES
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NHL No Doubt Rout on Blues -

This is a great spot to jump on the Blues. St Louis comes in at just 1-2 on the season, but are playing like a team that should be 3-0. The Blues are outshooting opponents by an average of 13.3 shots/game. They simply haven't been able to convert. They had 43 shots in a 1-0 loss at LA on Thursday. There's a good chance at least a couple of those shots will fall against Coyotes' goalie Mike Smith, who has allowed 4 goals in each of his last 2 starts and is just 4-7 over his career against the Blues. Arizona is 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 5+ goals in their last game, while St Louis is 8-3 in their last 11 against an opponent who scored 5+ last time out. Take the Blues!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Kentucky vs. LSU
Kentucky
+10½-105
  at  5DIMES
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Free

Free Pick on Kentucky Wildcats +

It shouldn’t take a whole lot of convincing that this is the best team Kentucky has fielded in recent years. Kentucky had won a combined 4 games the last two years and hadn’t won a conference game since 2011 before knocking off South Carolina 45-38 at home. The only loss on the season for the Wildcats is a 30-36 overtime defeat at Florida. It just so happens that LSU just got done playing on the road against the Gators and they barely scraped by with a 30-27 win.

The simple fact that LSU has been one of the dominant SEC teams over the last decade and Kentucky has been a bottom feeder has the Tigers overvalued in what I think are two evenly matched teams. There is some concern with this game being a home game at night for LSU, but we have already seen the Tigers get embarrassed on their home turf by Mississippi State.

One of the big reasons why I like Kentucky to keep this game close, is the Wildcats have the talent offensively to take advantage of arguably the worst defense LSU has fielded in the Les Miles era. Kentucky comes in ranked 38th in the country in total offense (448.5 ypg) behind a well balanced attack. The Wildcats are averaging 184.2 ypg on the ground and 264.3 ypg through the air.

What stands out to me is just how much more success Kentucky had moving the ball against a strong Florida defense, compared to what LSU did against the Gators. The Wildcats put up 532 yards of total offense at the swamp, while the Tigers managed just 306 yards. Not only is Kentucky capable of keeping this game within single digits, I think they have an outside shot at winning outright.

The fact that LSU comes in having played their last two games on the road, puts us in a great spot to fade the Tigers. LSU is just 4-13 ATS since 1992 after playing two straight on the road. The Tigers are also just 9-18 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a winning record and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after covering the number last time out. Take Kentucky!

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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Georgia vs. Arkansas
Arkansas
+4-110
  at  5DIMES
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* SEC Game of the Month on Arkansas +

You might think the Razorbacks will be down after yet another crushing loss, but I believe this team is on a mission to show everyone that they are on their way back to being a power in the SEC. What will keep Arkansas’ focused on the Bulldogs? A 12-game conference losing streak that goes back to 2012.

You could actually make a strong case that Georgia is the team primed for a letdown. The Bulldogs are coming off an emotional win last week over the Tigers, as they were out to prove to everyone that their season isn’t ruined by Gurley’s absence. Bringing that same intensity on the road against Arkansas could prove to be difficult, especially with their huge rivalry game against Florida on deck.

One of the keys to the Bulldogs blowout win over Missouri, was Georgia had a 42:23 to 17:37 edge in time of possession. That’s not going to be the case against the Razorbacks. Arkansas has one of the best offensive lines in the country and come in ranked 11th in rushing at 278.7 ypg. The Razorbacks controlled the clock against Alabama (34:13 to 25:47) and the Crimson Tide are a lot better defensively than the Bulldogs.

The fact that Georgia comes in ranked 11th in the nation against the run, giving up just 101.7 ypg, could lead you to believe that they will be able to slow down the Razorbacks’ rushing attack. I’m not so confident that will be the case. The Bulldogs have played a lot of bad running teams, which has aided their numbers. What stands out to me is the 176 yards they allowed on the ground at South Carolina.

On the flip side of this, I believe Arkansas’ defense is capable of keeping the Bulldogs rushing attack in check, especially if Gurley isn’t able to play. The Razorbacks just limited Alabama to 66 yards on 32 attempts (2.1 yards/carry) at home last week and will be able to focus in even more on the run with Georgia lack of a passing attack (170.0 ypg, 110th).

Georgia hasn’t exactly responded well off a big win away from home, as the Bulldogs are just 10-25 ATS off a double-digit road win. Georgia is also a mere 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win, while Arkansas is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team with a winning road record. These Trends combine to form a 75% (46-15) system in favor of the Razorbacks. Take Arkansas!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Missouri vs. Florida
Missouri
+5½-105
  at  BMAKER
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Oddsmakers Error on Missouri +

There's a lot of value getting 5.5-points in a game between two evenly matched teams where not a lot of points are expected (total 49). Not only do I think Missouri keeps this close enough to cover, but I look for them win this game outright.

The Tigers couldn't have played any worse last week against Georgia. That loss looks bad in the eyes of the public because the Bulldogs were without star running back Todd Gurley, but I believe his absence actually helped Georgia. The rest of the Bulldogs' players were out to show everyone that there's more to this team than Gurley and Missouri clearly wasn't ready. That loss should have the Tigers as focused as they have been all season. Keep in mind they followed up an ugly loss at home to Indiana with an outright win at South Carolina as a 6.5-point dog.

While this is a great spot for Missouri to bounce back, I think the Gators could find it difficult to get up for this game. Florida is coming in off a heartbreaking 27-30 loss at home to LSU and have a huge game on deck against rival Georgia next week. It becomes that much more difficult to not look ahead when you are going up against a team that looked as bad as Missouri did last week.

For me this game is going to come down to which quarterback can make plays and extend drives. While Matty Mauk was awful last week against Georgia (9 of 21, 97 yards, 4 INTs), I'm confident he will bounce back and outperform Florida's Jeff Driskel.

There's a nice system in play telling us to fade the Gators. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a close conference loss by 3 points or less in a matchup of two teams with a winning record are just 18-48 ATS since 1992. That's a 73% long-term system in favor of the Tigers. Take Missouri!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Georgia Tech vs. North Carolina
Georgia Tech
-2-108
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$108.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Rout on Georgia Tech -

This is a great spot to jump on Georgia Tech laying less than a field goal against North Carolina. While the Tar Heels played Notre Dame tough last week, a lot of that had to do with it being a horrible spot for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame just got done playing a huge rivalry game against Standford and had an even bigger game against Florida State on deck. I still think there's a lot of problems with North Carolina and I wouldn't be surprised if they suffered a bit of a let down after giving it all they had against Notre Dame.

Georgia Tech didn't have a great showing last week against Duke, losing 25-31 at home. However, that performance wasn't all that surprising. The Yellow Jackets were fresh off a huge win over Miami, who they had lost 5 straight to. This is the perfect opponent for Georgia Tech to bounce back against.

It's no secret that the Yellow Jackets primary focus is to run the football and control the clock. They should have no problem doing just that against North Carolina. The Tar Heels come into this game ranked 88th in the country against the run, giving up 191.7 ypg. Last year Georgia Tech rushed for 324 yards against UNC in a 28-20 home win and in 2012 they put up 380 yards in a 68-50 victory in Chapel Hill.

The other big key here is that the Yellow Jacket's defense matches up well with North Carolina's offense. The Tar Heels come in ranked 30th in the country in passing (285.0 ypg) and just 85th in rushing (147.2 ypg). Georgia Tech is 25th against the pass (200.7 ypg) and if they can keep North Carolina's offense from sustaining drives this game is going to turn into a blowout in a hurry.

There's a strong system telling us to fade the Tar Heels. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are being outscored by an average of 7 ppg in the 1st half, after playing a game where there were 70+ combined points scored are just 9-34 ATS since 1992. That's a 79% system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Baylor vs. West Virginia
Baylor
-7½-106
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$106.0
Play Type: Premium

4* Baylor/West Virginia Big 12 Game of the Month on Baylor -

You could argue that this is a big of a letdown spot for Baylor off that huge game against TCU, but I don’t think that’s the case. I actually think last week’s game against the Horned Frogs served as a wake-up call for the Bears. It’s no secret that West Virginia is a difficult place to play and Baylor head coach Art Briles is too good to let his players overlook a quality team like the Mountaineers. Keep in mind that Bears have an open date next week, so the players know that with a big win here and Kansas on deck, there's a good chance they could get some extra rest if they dominate the Mountaineers.

While West Virginia has a potent offense that’s capable of putting up a lot of points, their defense is downright awful. The Mountaineers allowed 565 yards of total offense to Texas Tech, 510 to Oklahoma and 538 to Alabama. I just don’t see West Virginia being able to slow down the Bears, who have a renewed since of confidence after how they finished out that game against TCU. Baylor comes in ranked 1st in the country in total offense, averaging 622.5 ypg.

The big key here is that Baylor’s defense is capable of making some stops, which they showed at the end of the game last week against TCU. Adding to that is the fact that the Bears had a near 300-yard edge in total offense against the Horned Frogs (782 to 485). Baylor comes in ranked 25th in scoring defense (20.0 ppg) and 10th in total defense (303.5 ypg). West Virginia will likely top both of those marks, but I don’t see them keeping pace with what their defense is going to give up on the other side of the ball.

Baylor reminds me a lot of Oregon over previous years. The books just can’t seem to get a good grasp on the Bears. Going back to 2011, Baylor is an impressive 30-13-1 ATS. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. West Virginia on the other hand keeps getting overvalued. The Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

There's also a strong system in play on the Bears. Road favorites off 3 straight conference wins when playing on Saturday are 72-36 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bears. Take Baylor!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Clemson vs. Boston College
Boston College
+5½-110
  at  BOVADA
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +

Clemson is simply not the same caliber a team without star freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Watson suffered a broken finger in last week's game against Louisville and the Tigers offense sputtered. Clemson managed just 12 first downs and 229 yards of total offense for the game, with the only points coming from the offense being 3 field goals.

There's a reason this line has dropped from 7.5 to 5.5. Boston College is a lot better team than they get credit for. Head coach Steve Addazio has done a tremendous job in his first two years at Chestnut Hill and I look for his defense to give the Tigers all kinds of trouble. It's no secret that Clemson has a strong defense, but not a lot of people realize how good Boston College has been on the defensive side of the ball. The Eagles come in ranked 22nd in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and 8th in total defense (289. ypg).

Boston College played Clemson tough on the road last year, losing by a final of just 14-24 and that was a very talented Tigers team. What I like is the Eagles have really stepped up at home against the top teams in the ACC. Last year they gave Florida State all they could handle in a 34-48 home loss. No other team kept it within 27-points against the Seminoles during the regular season. They upset Virginia Tech 34-27 as a 4-point home dog.

Without Watson at quarterback, Clemson is going to have rely more on the run and that's not their strength. The Tigers come in ranked 92nd in the country in rushing at 141.2 ypg and are averaging just 3.3 yards/carry against teams who are allowing an average of 4.4 ypc. Boston College on the other hand is 9th against the run, giving up just 99.8 ypg and only 3.4 ypc.

Adding to the Tigers rushing problems is a huge system telling us to fade Clemson. Teams who are averaging 3 to 3.5 ypc against a conference opponent that is allowing 3 to 3.5 ypc are just 10-49 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 83% system in favor of the Eagles. Take Boston College!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Washington vs. Oregon
Total
64½ ov-110
  at  BETONLINE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Late Night Pac-12 Over/Under Crusher on Oregon/Wash OVER

Even with Washington's strong defense, I'm expecting a shootout on Saturday between the Ducks and Huskies. Each of the last two meetings in this series have seen a combined score of at least 69 points. Washington had a strong defense in 2012 and it resulted in a total of just 62.5 points at Oregon. The Ducks put up 52 and the total flew over with 73 combined points.

What a lot of people overlooked in Oregon's loss to Arizona, which saw them score just 24 points, was they were without their top 3 tackles. They got back Jake Fisher last week and it made a huge difference, as they returned to form with 42 points on the road against UCLA. Washington has a great pass rush, but they also give up a lot of big plays through the air. The Huskies rank just 97th in the country against the pass, allowing 274.7 ypg. Their attacking mentality could also open up some big plays for Mariota scrambling out of the pocket.

The real key here is that Oregon's defense is not as good as what we have seen in years past. The Ducks come in ranked 73rd against the run (174.2 ypg) and 108th versus the pass (295.5 ypg). While Washington doesn't have a great offense, they should be able to score in the mid to upper 20s to push this well over the mark of 64.5.

There's a strong system in play favoring this game to finish above the total. The OVER is 33-9 over the last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off a conference road win (Oregon) against an opponent off a win by 10+ points as an underdog. That's a 79% system. Take the OVER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Virginia vs. Duke
Total
51½ un-110
  at  BETONLINE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* Virginia/Duke ACC Total Dominator on UNDER

Both of these teams have had a tendency to finish UNDER the total in 2014. Virginia has gone under the mark in 3 of their 5 games and Duke has finished below the total in 4 of 5. The only Blue Devil game that finished over was a 47-13 win over Tulane (total 52.5), where Duke had 2 interceptions returned for a touchdown in the 4th quarter.

One of the things that I really like here is that we have two teams who are both looking to establish the run. Virginia comes in averaging 42 rush attempts/game and Duke is right behind at 39 attempts/game. This should lead to a lot of empty possessions with big chunks of time ran off the clock.

Virginia comes in with the 6th ranked run defense in the country, giving up just 91.5 ypg on a mere 2.7 yards/carry. While Duke has rushed for at least 180 yards in 5 of their 6 games, a lot of that has to do with an easy schedule. They had just 85 yards against Miami a couple weeks back and ended up scoring just 10 points in the game (32 combined).

Duke doesn't have the best run defense, but I would expect them play inspired defensively at home, which has definitely been the case so far this season. The Blue Devils are only giving up 9.7 ppg on 339 ypg at home this season.

Leaning towards the UNDER in Virginia games has been a wise move over the years. The UNDER is 73-45 (62%) over the Cavaliers last 118 conference games. It's also 20-7 in their last 27 games following a win and 13-4 in their last 17 road games against teams who are allowing 17 or less points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Duke's last 7 after a win, 4-1 in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 5-0 in their last 5 conference games. These trends combine to form a solid 68% (121-58) system. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Missouri vs. Florida
Total
49 un-110
  at  BMAKER
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Total No Brainer on Missouri/Florida UNDER

Both of these teams have better defenses than they do offenses. Missouri comes in ranked 57th in total defense (380.7 ypg) and just 106th in total offense (357.9 ypg). Florida is 40th in total defense (357.0 ypg) and 90th in total offense (385.0 ypg).

Missouri put up some big offensive numbers early in the year against weak competition, but have not been able to get anything going of late. They managed just 27 points at home against a Indiana defense that is not good at all, had just 7 points before a couple of late touchdowns against an average South Carolina defense and last week managed just 147 total yards in their loss to Georgia.

Florida hasn’t been much better. While the Gators scored 21 points at Alabama, they had a fumble returned for a touchdown and their two other scores also came on Crimson Tide turnovers. Florida then managed just 10 points at Tennessee and their 27 against LSU isn’t impressive based on how bad the Tigers have looked defensively inside conference play.

Offensively the Gators have little to no threat of a passing attack, as Jeff Driskel continues to be one of the biggest bust in Florida history (#1 ranked QB out of high school). Driskel has completed just 55% of his attempts with just 6 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Missouri’s defense is more than capable of slowing down the Gators offensive attack.

The Tigers are giving up 22.8 ppg against opponents who are averaging 31.0 ppg. Florida is allowing just 22.2 ppg against teams who are averaging 29.5 ppg. What’s really impressive is how good these two teams have been against the run. Missouri is giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams average 5.1 and the Gators are allowing just 2.9 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.2.

I don’t expect to see either offense doing much of anything and when they do I look for both teams to have to settle for field goals. I wouldn’t be shocked if both of these teams failed to reach 20 points.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Tigers' last 4, 8-2 in Missouri’s last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home and 11-5 in the Gators last 16 games following a contest in which they failed to cover the spread. These trends combine to form a 77% (23-7) system. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Tulane vs. Central Florida
Total
45½ un-110
  at  BMAKER
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Total Annihilator on UCF/Tulane UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle in Saturday's matchup between Tulane and UCF. Both of these teams have struggled to get much of anything going offensively in 2014. The Knights are 95th in scoring (24.6 ppg) and 118th in total offense (302.6 ypg), while the Green Wave are 114th in scoring (19.7 ppg) and 101st in total offense (366.6 ypg).

It's also worth noting that both defenses match up well with the offensive strength of the other team. UCF's can't run the football (2.6 yards/carry), forcing them to throw a lot more than they would like. Tulane is 35th in the country against the pass, giving up just 213.2 ypg. As for the Green Wave, they have little to no threat of a passing attack, which plays right into the hands of a UCF defense that is giving up just 3.3 yards/carry (only 2.9 ypc at home).

Last week Tulane managed to score just 3-points at home against Connecticut, which is a great sign that the Green Wave will have a difficult time putting up points on the road against a motivated UCF team that is coming off a big win against BYU. It's also worth noting that the Knights have had a few extra days to prepare, as their game against the Cougars was played last Thursday.

UNDER is 5-1 in Tulane's last 6 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-0-1 in their last 5 after scoring 20 points or less last time out. The UNDER is also 4-0 in UCF's last 4 conference games and 6-1 in their last 7 after passing for more than 280 yards in their last game. These trends combine to form a Dynamite 90% (19-2) system. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 18, 2014
Clemson vs. Boston College
Total
45½ un-110
  at  BMAKER
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* ACC Over/Under Total of the Year on BC/Clemson UNDER

This might seem like an extremely low total, but I think there's a lot of value in the UNDER with Clemson not having the services of talented freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson, who suffered a broken finger in last week's game against Louisville. While the Tigers went on to score 23 points, the offense managed just 9 points. Their two touchdowns came on a 72-yard punt return and fumble recovery in the endzone. The real telling stat for Clemson was the 12 first downs and mere 229 yards of total offense they managed. Senior quarterback Cole Stoudt has some experience, but is no where close to Watson in terms of talent.

Hard to imagine the Tigers offense getting on track against a strong Boston College defensive unit. The Eagles come in ranked 22nd in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and 8th in total defense (289. ypg). I'm also not expecting to see a whole lot out of Boston College's offense, as Clemson comes in ranked 35th in scoring defense (21.2 ppg) and 7th in total defense (286.0 ypg). Even had Watson played I don't think this would have been a high-scoring affair.

Another key here is that both of these teams are excellent against the run and do a great job of not giving up the big play. Boston College is allowing just 3.0 yards/rush and 4.4 yards/play, while Clemson is giving up just 3.4 yards/rush and 5.0 yards/play. Not only are both offenses going to struggle to stay to sustain drives, they will likely have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

It's also worth mentioning that last year these two teams combined for just 38 points and both have lost big time offensive players. The Tigers parted ways with their all-time leading passer (Tajh Boyd) and receiver (Sammy Watkins), while BC lost their all-time leading rusher (Andre Williams).

UNDER is 36-18 in Clemson's last 54 games against teams who are allowing 120 or less rushing yards/game and 13-3 in Boston College's last 16 home games against teams who are averaging 8 or more yards/pass.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 33-11 over the last 10 seasons in games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when you have a team that outgained their previous opponent by 125 or more yards (BC) against an opponent that managed just 3.25 or less yards/play in their last game. That's a 75% system. Take the UNDER!

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Jimmy Boyd of Locksmith Sports is the most reconciled sports information analyst across each of the major sports that the handicapping field has to provide. His 2007 MLB World Handicapping title, earning $1,000 bettors over 50 grand brings a new top place finish to his list of handicapping achievements through the previous ten years! Jimmy's situational and matchup analysis is second to none. He pitches his ideas daily in his particular game accounts so that his members know exactly how much he likes a team and why he likes that team. This previous collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law graduate will help find you come out on top in every sport he covers. Jimmy's top-notch sports choices with superior writeups establish him as a leading force in the handicapping industry for a long time to come. Jimmy is one of the very few cappers that has actually made the stripes to be considered as a top industry participant. He invites you to discover out for yourself. Sign up now and start winning exclusively with Jimmy Boyd!