Art Aronson – AAA Sports NBA Picks & Plays

10* OVER Brewers/Pirates (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a "duel" here finally in this get-away game. Milwaukee is 14-8, including 10-4 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 13-11, including 5-5 at home. The Brewers have now seen the total go "under" in five straight after yesterday's 3-2 win. Note though that the Brewers have in fact seen the total soar "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. The Pirates have also seen the total go "under" in five straight, but note that they've also seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Freddy Peralta is 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA for the Brewers, while Mitch Keller is 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA for the Pirates. Two decent starters, but the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to this total going "over" the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

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8* Islanders (SPECIAL)

The Islanders are 0-2 in this series and they've yet to cover with the puckline option, but we're finally predicting that they at the very least here at home in this essentially "must win" situation. New York is also interestingly 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The Islanders have been competitive at home (21-10-7-3) and with their backs against the wall, we predict that they'll at the very least, earn the cover with the puckline option!

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10* Panthers/Lightning OVER (GAME 3 TOP)

The first two games have fallen "under" the number, but now with the shift in venue, we're expecting goals to be plentiful here in Tampa on Thursday night. Note that the Lightning have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. We also expect Florida to be able to, at the very least, match its offensive output over the first two games after winning 3-2 in each. While the first two games of this series have been really defensive, the stage is now set for an explosive offensive affair between these talented offensive clubs in our opinion; this number is indeed low, the play is on the "over!" 

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10* OVER Nuggets/Lakers (TOP PLAY)

The first two games of this series have gone "under" the number, but we're anticipating a much higher-scoring shootout this time around with the shift in venue. Note that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 99 or fewer point in. The Lakers closed out the regular season by seeing the total fly "over" the number in five straight games. Now returning home and with their backs against the wall, LA will have to push the pace from start to finish no matter the size of the lead; expect this overall tempo to help in contributing to this total flying "over the posted number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Magic (BLOCKBUSTER)

We like the Magic to bounce back here at home after going 0-2 SU/ATS over the first two games of this series. Note that Orlando is in fact 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to avenge two or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. We liked the Magic going into this series, but they came up short on the road. Home court will for sure prove to be important in this series. Cleveland was just 19-22 ATS on the road this season, while the Magic were 27-13 ATS in front of the home town crowd. Look for Orlando to ride the wave of emotion to a solid win and cover in this essentially "must win" scenario; lay the short points, the play is Orlando!

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