Stephen Nover’s Daily NBA Picks & Betting Tips

Yeah, this game has some meaning for the Kings. But they still are locked into the play-in round and have not been playing well losing five of their past six games, including the last three.

So I don't believe the Kings should be this high of a favorite.

The Trail Blazers are 2-4 in their last six games. More important, Portland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games.

Sacramento is 4-8 ATS as double-digit favorites this season. This is by far the most points they have laid this season.

But because the Kings can gain the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Trail Blazers and having the Lakers lose to the Pelicans, the oddsmaker has set an inflated number and the marketplace has pushed it up even higher at some books.

Both this game and the Lakers-Pelicans matchup have the same starting time. So the Kings might be distracted trying to find out how the Lakers-Pelicans game is going especially if they have a big lead. That's not ideal for such a heavy favorite.

The backdoor should fly open, too, for the Trail Blazers if the Kings begin to rest their key players if building a big lead.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to play. The Lakers need this win to clinch the No. 8 playoff spot. New Orleans is 1-5 in its last six home games and hasn't had Brandon Ingram since March 31.  That's enough for me to back the Lakers in an underdog role.  The Pelicans need this game, too, to lock into the No. 6 seed in the West. But I don't trust them. They've been better on the road than at home where they are just three games above .500. Ingram is the Pelicans' second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game. If he does play, he figures to be rusty. 

The Dodgers and Padres rank first and second, respectively, in most home runs this season. The Padres have a top-10 offense and the Dodgers a top-five attack.

Starting pitchers Yu Darvish and James Paxton are off to good starts. But I favor the offenses here. Both San Diego and Los Angeles have bottom-12 bullpen ERA's.

The Dodgers opened the season against Darvish, who pitched 3 2/3 innings against them in Seoul, South Korea. Darvish has a 3.86 ERA on the season and is past his prime.

Darvish is going to have to deal with a sizzling Mookie Betts, who is batting .500 with two homers and 12 RBIs in 20 at bats against San Diego this season.

The 35-year-old Paxton has opened the season with a 2-0 record and 1.64 ERA. His starts, though, have come against the Giants and Twins. Now he steps up against the Padres. Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar all have good histories against Paxton.