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Free NBA Picks: Nuggets at Pacers

November 5, 2009

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Tom Freese is one of the top NBA analysts in the business and today he has a free basketball pick on the Denver Nuggets at the Indiana Pacers: Denver is 19-7 ATS after reaching 100 or more points in their previous game and they are 15-5 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Nuggets are 11-4-1 ATS their last 16 games when working with one day of rest and they are 7-1 ATS their last 8 road games. Indiana is 2-7 ATS their previous 9 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as home dogs. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games vs. the Nuggets. PLAY ON DENVER.

Dave Price however is going to play the other side: I’ll take the Pacers in the home dog role tonight considering they are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record while the Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. The Pacers have not played since October 30th so they should be well rested and well prepared tonight. But here’s the clincher: Plays on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, team that had a losing record last season, are 23-4 ATS since 1996. Take the points.

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