Fargo’s Hornets at Wolves Pick

December 9, 2009

BetOnline

Nobody does a better job of making a client feel like they are on the right side of the NBA point spreads than our man Matt Fargo.  He writes detailed writeups that are chalked full of matchup analysis, systems, and news about the teams.  If you want winning NBA picks delivered to your email every night, then consider signing up with this expert handicapper.  Let’s take a look at who he was on last night, taking the Wolves over the Hornets:

The last time I ventured out on Minnesota was on Saturday and that resulted in an outright victory over Utah and this team is definitely turning a corner. After defeating Denver as 14.5-point underdogs on the road at the end of November, they have put together a five-game cover streak and this is significant since Minnesota went on a 1-10 ATS run prior to that. That included a 0-6 ATS mark at home but a loss to Memphis by a bucket on Wednesday ended that string as well and it has now covered two in a row at the Target Center. Timberwolves forward Kevin Love made his season debut against the Hornets seven weeks after he broke his left hand in a preseason game. He delivered an 11-point, 11-rebound double-double while playing half the game off the bench. His return is big as it adds more depth to the frontcourt and actually makes it a strength now. In three games he is averaging 15.7 ppg and 9.3 rpg. Last night Minnesota was stung with a bad shooting night as it shot 36 percent including 30 percent (3-15) from long range. Those nights are going to happen. New Orleans has no business laying wood on the road. The Hornets are 1-9 away from home this season and the lone victory came in Los Angeles against the Clippers and not the Lakers. In 20 games, the home team is 17-3 in New Orleans games this season so it is obviously that the host has had an edge all season. The linesmakers have no choice here but to make the Hornets a favorite and despite being 9-11, they are somehow still a very publicly backed team and that is certainly the case again tonight as the betting action is all over New Orleans early in the cycle. As a favorite of three points or more, the Hornets are 1-5 ATS on the season and this includes a cover loss just last week at home against Minnesota. The Hornets were favored by 9.5 points in that game and based on the venue switch and simple math, they should be favored by a point and a half at the most. The last meeting in Minnesota came last January and the Timberwolves were favored by a point in that game. Since then, Minnesota has remained pretty level while the Hornets have digressed considerably. The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record and this season they are 0-3 ATS against teams that have a winning percentage below .250. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a losing record.

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