Odds to Win the West: The King’s odds of winning the West are not that good either. The oddsmakers have offered Sacramento at 70-to-1 to win the West, which translates to about a 1% probability of it happening. Only the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves have worse odds to come out of the West as the champion.

Strengths: Tyreke Evans is the best thing going for Sacramento. Nobody could stop him from driving to the basket last season which is why he was able to post over 20 points per game. Grouping that with his five boards and five assists per contest and he was only the fourth rookie to post those numbers. Who else? Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James.

Rookie DeMarcus Cousins is talented too. This guy could be a star since he’s such a good rebounder and has outstanding footwork when working in the paint. He has a chance to give Sacramento back-to-back Rookies of the Year.

Sacramento should be a good rebounding squad. They ranked sixth in offensive boards last season and the addition of Samuel Dalembert, third best defensive rebounder in the NBA last season, should help them grab even more defensive boards now.

Weaknesses: The loss of Kevin Martin took away the Kings perimeter shooter. Sacramento also dealt away Andres Nocioni, who was their top outside shooter from a year ago. Evans isn’t remarkable from behind the 3-point line and Beno Udrih’s range doesn’t quite extend long enough to reach behind the line. If the paint gets full of bodies, Evans’ ability to get to the hole will be minimized.

Pick – Miss the Playoffs: Bodog has the Kings up with an estimated total of 27.5 wins. I see Sacremento landing right around that total. This organization seems to be going in the right direction with two talented, young players in Evans and Cousins. There just isn’t a very good supporting cast around them. If those players develop fast, and Sacramento makes some moves to bring in supporting players, this could be a team to look out for in a couple of years
seasons. Just probably not this one.

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Western Conference Odds: The latest futures odds have LA at 40-to-1 to win the conference. That seems rather low even though it gives them a 2% chance of accomplishing that goal. Golden State, Minnesota, and Kings all have worse odds, while 40-to-1 ties Memphis.

Strengths: The Clippers have a pair of solid big men with Blake Griffin and Chris Kaman. Griffin missed all of last season due to knee problems but is my favorite for Rookie of the Year. He reminds a lot of people of Carlos Boozer, but he might end up being a lot better. Griffin has soft hands, converts well around the basket, and hits the boards hard. Don’t be surprised if he is putting up double-doubles from the word go.

Kaman was a stunner last season as he developed a mid-range jump shot, which enabled him to add more than 6 ppg to his average. Kaman should benefit from the focus that opposing defenses will give to Griffin, and with his rebounding ability he should have a chance at getting a lot of easy second chance looks.

Weaknesses: The most glaring weakness for this team to me is that they won eight more games than they were expected to last year based on scoring margin. A team with the Clippers offensive and defensive efficiency should have won only 21 times, so to surpass the 29 they actually did win they are going to have to be a lot better than last year (or highly lucky once more).

Turning the ball over is a problem with this team and it begins at the point guard. Baron Davis has invariably had a high turnover rate and Kaman also put up a high number for a post player. Griffin will probably contribute a good deal to this stat as he learns how to pick up on NBA double teams.

First year head coach Vinny Del Negro also needs to make a point that Davis recognizes the offense starts with the post players and not with him. If he is throwing up low-percentage outside shots instead of getting the post players involved, this team will not put up as many points.

Pick – Miss the Postseason: BetUS has the team’s win projection set at 36.5 and I think that is generous. The Clippers do add Griffin to what basically is the same team from a year ago, and since that squad won eight more games than expected, I think he helps them overcome that mark and end up right where they were in 2009-10. Del Negro didn’t inspire much hope while on the sidelines in Chicago and both Kaman and Davis have had problems with injuries. Sorry Clippers fans, but you won’t be seeing your team in the playoffs this season.

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Western Conference Odds: If you want to take the Warriors to win the Western Conference you are going to have some hefty odds. The Warriors are listed at 75-to-1, which translates to a 1% probability of being the Western Conference champion.

Strengths: Stephen Curry and David Lee. I’m waiting to watch these two perform the pick and roll together this year. You can’t leave Curry open because he will make shots from outside, and Lee is one of the best in the game at rolling to the hoop.

Curry was great in his first year and should keep getting better as he learns more about the NBA.

Weaknesses: There are a lot of problems with this team. They were terrible at rebounding last season, but the addition of Lee should help them get better there.

Defensively they can’t stop anyone unless they force a turnover. Their bench is thin and to make matters worse some of the starting five have been fragile over the course of their careers. If Golden State gets hit with injuries, they will be in trouble.

Monta Ellis is not as good as people think. He chucks up too many attempts, doesn’t hit a high rate of his shots, and the team plays better without him.

Pick – Miss the Playoffs: The Warriors will be fun to watch due to the signing of Lee to pair up with Curry. However, they only won 26 games last season and that was with Corey Maggette, Anthony Randolph, Anthony Morrow, and several other players won’t be suiting up in a Warriors uniform this year.

While the Warrior bench was a strength a year ago, it’s a big weakness this year. The top five are going to have to stay healthy and be in the best condition of their careers if the Warriors are going to play an upbeat style of play like they have in the past. I just can’t see this Golden State team winning more than 35 games.

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Western Conference Odds: The Suns are an underdog to win the West. The live odds show that Phoenix is offered at 25-to-1, which means they have less than a 4% prospect of it actually happening.

Strengths: Steve Nash doesn’t seem to miss a step even though he’s 36. Not only is he the best assist man in the league today, but he’s also a lights out shooter. He nailed down 42.6% of his long-range attempts a year ago and shot 94% from the line. With Nash running the offense you know that Phoenix will once again be one of the top point producing teams in the league.

The rest of the squad is loaded with solid shooters also. Jason Richardson Channing Frye, Chris Dudley, Grant Hill, and Goran Dragic all nailed more than 39% from behind the arc, plus now they are adding Hedo Turkoglu, who is a career 38.3% from deep range. With that a lot of sharp shooters I would once again expect Phoenix to fmake more 3′s than anyone else in the NBA.

Weaknesses: Rebounding is going to be a real problem for the Suns. With Amare Stoudemire heading to the Knicks, the Suns lost their top rebounder and didn’t find someone to fill that role. Lou Amundson is also gone and he was the second top rebounder on the team. Since the Suns are going to be rather small anyway, I fully expect them to be last in the league in rebounding.

Defensively Phoenix isn’t real strong either. They don’t force enough turnovers and allow teams too many second opportunities. Nash has problems with speedier guards getting by him, and Frye is small for a power forward. Hill uses his size well on defense, but is getting old at 38.

Pick – Miss the Playoffs: Bodog has the over/under win total for the Phoenix Suns offered at 41.5. I don’t think they reach the .500 level this season, so I’d go with the UNDER. The Suns did surprise a lot of bettors last year when they won 54 times and took came within two games of reaching the Finals. However, they lost a great player in Amare and didn’t fill that void with a big name talent. You can’t fairly expect this team to do anywhere near as well without one of the top players in the NBA.

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Western Conference Odds: There is no doubt in my mind that the LA Lakers are the team to beat out West. They have won 3 straight conference championships and are marked at -130 to make it a 4th. That gives the Lake Show a 55% prospect of doing so.

Strengths: The apparent strength on the Lake Show is Kobe Bryant. He produces his own shots whenever he wants, gets to the lane, and is the top finisher in the NBA. Last season he suffered injuries to his knee and finger which correlated to a lower than average point and rebound total. Kobe had surgery to fix his knee this summer so it will be intriguing to see if he will have the same quickness. That shouldn’t affect his game too much though since he depends more on his physique than quickness.

The other strength of this team comes with their bigs, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Gasol was remarkable again last year and is the perfect compliment to Bryant. He is good at hitting the midrange jumper and can move the ball as well as any post in the NBA. He spreads the court not only for Kobe, but for Bynum down on the block.

Bynum is a big body who can score down low and protects the rim on defense. If he can keep on the court for a full season you can expect him to be in the All-Star game come February.

The Lakers seem to not be recognized enough for their defense, but this team was exceptional on that side of the floor last season. Picking up Ron Artest gave the Lakers four solid defenders in the starting lineup, enough to compensate for opposing guards being quicker than Derek Fisher.

Weaknesses: The one chink in the armor is with Fisher. Fisher looked slow for much of the regular season, which is why I was dumbfounded to see LA give him a three year extension this offseason. Gone is Jordan Farmar, supplanted by Steve Blake. This is an upgrade since LA needs a good perimeter shooter from the one.

Last year the Lakers declined to make a move at the trade deadline for a point guard and they still won the title. They didn’t address the issue over the summer, but if troubles occur early in the year then I expect LA to make a deal.

Pick – First in the West: The win projection for this team has been set at 56.5. That looks about dead on to me so I don’t suggest a play either way. Injuries are an issue with Bynum and Bryant, and if there are any lingering effects they will get a lot rest coming before the playoffs. I see the Lakers jumping out to an early lead in the West and coasting their way into the playoffs over the final couple of months.

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Odds to Win the West: The oddsmakers think this is distinctly the worst team in the West, giving 100-to-1 odds that they will win the West. The Warriors are have the next shortest odds at 75-to-1.

Strengths: There is no doubt that Kevin Love is the Wolves’ best player. He is a remarkable rebounder, but his ability to get his teammates the ball where they can score really make him different from other post players. That is why Minnesota is so much better offensively when he is on the court.

Defensively, he struggles. Love has to get better in transition and when defending one-on-one down low.

It was a joke that he was a reserve last year, he needs to get 40 minutes per night and he’ll be in line for an All-Star berth.

I also like Minnesota’s depth. Jonny Flynn, Michael Beasley, and Nikola Pekovic are all players with lots of talent. I want to see how Beasley reacts to the trade and playing in a stress free environment like Minnesota. Flynn was the third leading scorer on last year’s team, but he has to make better decisions with the basketball. Pekovic was one of the best players in Europe but is like Love, good on offense and a liability on defense.

Weaknesses: We are talking about the third-worst offense and second-worse defense from last year, so I could go on for days about what’s bad on this squad.

Too many of the same types of players is a problem. They picked three point guards in the 2009 draft instead of going after help elsewhere. They have too many bigs who can’t play defense and are undersized. The Wolves were bad at blocking shots a year ago, and didn’t do much to improve upon that issue.

The transactions this team makes confuses me. Signing Darko Milicic and drafting Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn back-to-back are just two obvious recent examples. Trading for Beasley was a sound move and while Jefferson and Love in all likelihood couldn’t play well together, they traded Jefferson away for cents on the dollar.

Pick – Miss Playoffs: This team might have been the worst in the league last year, but finished with more wins than the Nets. This season the team should be better with guys who can put up points like Wesley Johnson and Beasley. I also like the bench Minnesota has which should give them an advantage over a lot of second units. Still, don’t be duped into believing Minnesota will be in the playoff picture because they won’t be.

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Western Conference Odds: According to the lines makers, Denver has the 6th best chance of winning the West this season. You can get the price of 15-to-1 on Denver, meaning there is a 6% probability this team will reach the NBA Finals.

Strengths: This is one of the better perimeter shooting squads in the NBA. Point guard Chauncey Billups hits 39% of his 3-point attempts and shooting guard Aaron Affalo hit at a 43.4% rate a year ago. Reserves Ty Lawson (41%) and JR Smith (who hit 39% or higher in 3 straight seasons before last year) can also take advantage of open looks.

The addition of Al Harrington will help this team extend the defense with a big who can also hit from the outside. That should leave open space for Carmelo Anthony to do his thing on the inside. Anthony was one of the top guys in the NBA early last season, but depended too much on his outside shot after the All-Star break (bad idea when you shoot 31% from 3-point land).

Weaknesses: Right now the health of Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin show a weakness down low for Denver. Harrington is a small power forward who doesn’t do a good job of rebounding or defending. Nene does well in transition and is a good enough distributor but he also doesn’t rebound well nor does he block shots. Early in the year I see the Nuggets having troubles defending down low and allowing too many second shots.

Martin is going to be out for awhile this year due to his knee troubles. He has perpetually been known as a defensive stopper and finisher, but will that explosiveness return when he comes back from his injuries?

Bird Man also fell victim to knee problems, but he shouldn’t lose as much time as Martin. When Andersen was on the floor Denver was a lot better defensively, because he can overcome a lot of mistakes by the guards. He is one of the best shot blockers in the league when healthy.

Pick – Seventh in the Western Conference: I’ll predict the Nuggets to make the postseason this year, but that is depending on Carmelo being with the team the full season. Since he hasn’t made a commitment to the organization, the Nuggets might have to offer him up before the trade deadline to make sure they get some value in exchange for his leaving. Smith needs to find his touch and Anthony needs to regain his early season form from a year ago. I also like Lawson and think he could have a breakout year. There are just too many problem areas for me to think of this team as a serious challenger out West.

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Western Conference Odds: The Jazz aren’t getting much love out West, with the NBA lines makers offering the Jazz at 20-to-1 to win the conference. Seven squads have higher odds than the Jazz do, and I think they are a better team than a lot of other squads with shorter prices. The experts think Utah will have around a 5% prospect of being the West’s representative in the Championship series.

Strengths: The Jazz made a sound move in getting Al Jefferson from Minnesota. He should effectively replace Carlos Boozer, who left in free agency to the Chicago Bulls. The plus with Jefferson is that he can start at the five, which gets Paul Millsap into the starting lineup at the four.

Both Millsap and Jefferson are brilliant finishers, and point guard Deron Williams does a great job of driving to the rim. When you see averages for Williams 19 points and 10 dimes per game, you realize that he is among the best in the league at his spot.

Weaknesses: The Jazz will be without Mehmet Okur for awhile. He tore his Achilles last season in the postseason, so will bet out for part of the year. Also, Kyle Korver departed in free agency, so I think there might be a problem with perimeter shooting. That could clog the lane and make it tough for the Jazz to utilize on their biggest strength.

Also, their interior defense isn’t going to be great. Jefferson is only 6’10″, so he’s going to be shorter than most other big men. Millsap is undersized as well at 6’8″ and even though he blocked 1.2 shots per game, it’s still not going to be tough for bigger post players to get their shots off. This is another area that they are going to miss Okur, which points to another problem: depth. If anyone else in the frontcourt gets hurt, or has trouble with fouling on any given night, the Jazz could be in trouble.

Predictions – Sixth in the West: I think the duo of Williams and Jefferson is going to provide for some electric basketball at times and Jerry Sloan always gets a lot out of his players. However, I don’t see the Jazz going far in the playoffs, there just isn’t enough around those two. I see the Jazz losing in the first-round.

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Odds to Win the West: The Thunder are 2nd behind the LA Lakers in terms of who the NBA odds makers think will be the Western Conference champions. If you want the Thunder you can take them at 6-to-1 odds to win the West. That gives the Thunder about a 15% prospect of doing so.

Strengths: Kevin Durant is an absolute beast. He did a remarkable job of getting to the foul line, averaging a NBA high 10 free throws per game. When you make 90% from the charity stripe, that’s a strong bump to your team’s score. He led the league in points per game, the youngest player ever to do so, but he isn’t just a scorer as he can rebound and block shots too.

Durant’s only weakness is not helping his teammates score and that he turns the ball over too frequently. Still, he is one of the top players in the NBA and has been improving rapidly each season.

Russell Westbrook is no slouch either. One of the most athletic point guards in the game who also does a good job of driving the lane and drawing fouls. If Westbrook can find an outside shot then he’ll move up the ranks to the elite at his position.

Oklahoma City does a remarkable job of clamping down on defense and they should only improve with Cole Aldrich at center. Every one of their starters is long for their position, which enables all of them to be able to block shots. This was the best shot blocking team last season, but no individual player came up with more than 100.

Weaknesses: Outside shooting. Outside of James Harden, this team doesn’t have a sharpshooter. That permitted defenses to sag in and help out when Durant or Westbrook took to the hoop. The addition of Daequan Cook will hopefully give the Thunder another outside threat.

The only additional issue is interior scoring. Nenad Krstic has a good mid-range game that helps stretch the court but doesn’t score down low or grab too many offensive rebounds. Jeff Green likes to play on the outside but ended up shooting so bad last season that he hurt the team more than helped. Durant doesn’t post up on the block much either.

Predictions – 4th in West: I’m not as big on the Thunder this year as a lot of experts are. They still have some holes to fill and I don’t think they can fight off the injury bug as well as they did last season, when four of their five starters played all 82 games. Even if they aren’t as lucky with injuries, Oklahoma City does have some depth with Serge Ibaka playing very well and a mix of young players and veteran leadership coming off the pine. The Thunder didn’t make any major additions though, so any growth would have to come from their players improving. That should be offset by not being as lucky with health.

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Western Conference Odds: Portland has the 5th highest NBA odds to win the West at 12-to-1, behind LA, Oklahoma City, Spurs, and Mavs. That gives the Blazers about a 8% chance of representing the West in this year’s Finals.

Strengths: The Blazers’ offense centers around two main focal points, no turnovers and crashing the offensive glass. Portland does not turn the ball over and they are large enough in the paint to grab plenty of boards to give the offense a second chance. This is why they were third in shot attempts per possession last season and still scored a decent amount despite having the slowest tempo in the NBA.

Adding Marcus Camby gives the Blazers a fantastic front court. When nobody is injured you have LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden starting. Aldridge is kind of passive, but he can get his shot off over anyone. Oden is as fragile as they come, but is a superior rebounder and shot blocker. The other knock on Oden is that he fouls way too much, so remaining on the floor for more than half the game is a real problem.

Camby may not be able to score, but he is so dominant with rebounding that he still has immense value. Plus, he is an excellent distributor who can help other players put up the points. Joel Przybilla is another center who has had injury problems, but he’s also a good shot blocker and rebounder. Like Oden, he’s not great on offense and is not a great shooter.

Weaknesses: Andre Miller is a sound point guard, but he’s a little out of his element with this squad. Nate McMillian likes to run Brandon Roy off of a lot of pick and rolls, but that’s not going to work as well if Roy doesn’t have someone who can spread the floor by making perimeter shots. The post players are poor shooters, but they bring value with their rebounding and defensive presence, Miller doesn’t. If Portland can trade for a point who can hit the outside shot, then watch out.

Picks – 2nd in West: This was fresh face of the West before the Thunder became the rage a year ago. The difference between these two teams last season was health. The Blazers couldn’t have had their guys miss more time and the Thunder had nine guys average 79 games. I’m going to put it out there and say that was a fluke and the Blazers will be able to get a little more out of their horses this year.

Portland’s depth is a big asset and they have plenty of money and draft picks to make a deal. This team could give LA a run for the top-seed out West.

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