Burns Heat/Nuggets Picks

December 4, 2009

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Ben Burns is a top rate basketball handicapper who has hit 54% of his NBA picks since joining our site a few years ago. He is known for his in-depth analysis on the games, making clients feel comfortable with his selection even before they watch it cash. Let’s take a look at what he had to say about his winner last night between the Heat the Nuggets so you can see what I mean:

I’m playing on Miami and Denver to finish UNDER the total. These teams faced each other last month at Miami. The final score of that game stayed well below the total, with the Heat earning a 96-88 victory. The over/under number for that game was 205.5. Even though the teams combined for only 184 points, tonight’s total is significantly higher. While I respect both offenses, I feel that its too high.

The Heat are off a relatively high-scoring (107-100) upset victory at Portland. It was their fifth straight game which stayed below 208 combined points. Their previous two games both stayed below the total, finishing with combined scores of just 177 and 178. Note that they’ve seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 21-8 the last 29 times that they were coming off an upset (SU win as an underdog) victory, including a perfect 4-0 in that situation this season. Its also worth noting that the UNDER is 2-0 on the season when they played a game with an o/u line of 210 or greater.

As for the Nuggets, they’re also coming off an extremely high-scoring game. However, that was against Golden State, a team which scores a lot of points but which doesn’t know the meaning of the word defense. (The Warriors rank last in the NBA in defense but are third in offense.) Note that the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 6-3 on the season, after scoring 105 or more points in their previous game. Its also worth noting that the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go a profitable 4-1 the last five times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss.

I already mentioned that last month’s meeting between these teams was low-scoring. If we look at last year, we find that both games between the Heat and Nuggets also produced 205 points or less. Overall, the last three meetings between these teams have averaged only 190 points. Looking back further and we find that 11 of 20 meetings this millennium have stayed below the total. I look for tonight’s game to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting with the UNDER improving to 6-2 the last eight times (63-46 L109) that the Nuggets were matched up against a team with a winning record. *9 Blue Chip

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